The model missed the final outcome (Excelsior win 0–4).
The model had projected Cambuur at 60.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Cambuur Excelsior ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-0, 2-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 60.4% | 37.5% | +22.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 20.4% | 27.7% | -7.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Excelsior | 19.2% | 34.8% | -15.6 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Cambuur's win probability at 60.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 37.5%, a difference of 22.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Excelsior win 0–4.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.83) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Cambuur; match finished Excelsior
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cambuur by 22.9 percentage points (37.5% vs model 60.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cambuur 60.4% · Draw 20.4% · Excelsior 19.2%
- xG · Cambuur 2.46 — Excelsior 1.37
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cambuur 2.57 · Draw 3.48 · Excelsior 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · Cambuur 37.5% · Draw 27.7% · Excelsior 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cambuur 2.57 · Draw 3.48 · Excelsior 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · Cambuur 37.5% · Draw 27.7% · Excelsior 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Excelsior win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
40/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (82%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Betting Confidence
26/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Excelsior win · Cambuur 0–4 Excelsior
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"over_under": {
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"away": 34.8,
"draw": 27.7,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-07 18:01:52",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-07 17:33:42",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cambuur",
"largest_move_kind": null,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"status_key": "no_value"
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},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.6
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.46,
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"confidence": "strong",
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"edge": 22.0,
"ev": 57.2,
"probability": 60.4
},
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"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1376,
"ev_available": true,
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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"tier": "best"
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{
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},
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"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 0,
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"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 26.4,
"value_side": "over"
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{
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Excelsior",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 22.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 22.91,
"hero_label": "Cambuur",
"market_prob_pct": 37.5,
"market_team": "Cambuur",
"model_prob_pct": 60.4,
"model_team": "Cambuur",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1376,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5512,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cambuur at 60.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cambuur as the value side (60.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cambuur",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cambuur \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552117 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1376,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6036,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5513,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 82.2,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 82% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.09"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.09
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "11/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (82%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 22.91,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 22.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 82.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.46,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.46,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.46 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +82%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Excelsior",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1376,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5512,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cambuur at 60.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cambuur as the value side (60.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cambuur",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cambuur \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552117 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1376,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6036,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5513,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 82.2,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 82% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.09"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.09
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cambuur 2.46 xG vs Excelsior 1.37 \u2192 Cambuur 60.4%",
"Market: Cambuur ~37.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Excelsior odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Cambuur, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 22.91,
"fair_prob": 60.42,
"label": "Cambuur",
"market_prob": 37.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.28,
"fair_prob": 20.42,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.64,
"fair_prob": 19.16,
"label": "Excelsior",
"market_prob": 34.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 73.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 69.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 22.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cambuur",
"market_prob_pct": 37.51,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Excelsior"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Cambuur\u0027s win probability at 60.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 37.5%, a difference of 22.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 22.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Cambuur",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+22.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 22.9,
"model_prob_pct": 60.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+22.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Cambuur \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+22.9 pp).",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cambuur 2.46 xG vs Excelsior 1.37 \u2192 Cambuur 60.4%",
"Market: Cambuur ~37.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Excelsior odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Cambuur, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 22.91,
"hero_label": "Cambuur",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Excelsior odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 22.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 40.0 pp (at 60.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 40.0,
"max_prob_pct": 60.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Cambuur",
"largest_gap_pp": 22.9,
"lead": "The model rates Cambuur considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 22.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 22.91,
"edge_pp": 22.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cambuur",
"market_prob_pct": 37.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.28,
"edge_pp": -7.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -15.64,
"edge_pp": -15.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.16,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Excelsior",
"market_prob_pct": 34.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cambuur (37.5%).",
"Excelsior odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.0%, 11/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Cambuur \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+22.9 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.91,
"closing_odds": 2.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.91,
"entry_odds": 2.57,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 34m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Excelsior (10.0%, 11/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.77",
"2.63",
"2.50"
],
"display": "2.77 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 34m",
"pick_team": "Excelsior",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.77,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Excelsior",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Excelsior",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Excelsior",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Excelsior",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 22.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Excelsior",
"away_team_id": 196,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/196.webp",
"away_team_name": "Excelsior",
"away_team_slug": "excelsior",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1552117,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Cambuur",
"home_team_id": 420,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/420.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cambuur",
"home_team_slug": "cambuur",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_id": 88,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
"league_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-07 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Leeuwarden",
"venue_name": "Kooi Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3447,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0538,
"ev": -0.1851,
"implied_prob": 0.348,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.348,
"draw": 0.277,
"home": 0.3751
},
"model_prob": 0.1919,
"p_final": 0.2942
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2674,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.277,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.348,
"draw": 0.277,
"home": 0.3751
},
"model_prob": 0.2045,
"p_final": 0.2576
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2957,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0676,
"ev": 0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.348,
"draw": 0.277,
"home": 0.3751
},
"model_prob": 0.6036,
"p_final": 0.4426
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.1691,
"ev": -0.4683,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.1919
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": -0.0829,
"ev": -0.2884,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.2045
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": 0.2145,
"ev": 0.5512,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.6036
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.83,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1376,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5512,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1376,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 5.1,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1376,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5512,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cambuur at 60.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cambuur as the value side (60.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cambuur",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cambuur \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552117 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cambuur), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1376,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6036,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5513,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 82.2,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 82% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.09"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.09
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.692,
"draw_prob": 0.2045,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6036,
"over_prob": 0.736,
"total_xg": 3.83,
"under_prob": 0.264,
"xg_diff": 1.09
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0676,
"ev": 0.1376,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6036,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cambuur"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.692,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1552117,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1376,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1919,
"draw": 0.2045,
"home": 0.6036
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Excelsior",
"home": "Cambuur"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.099666,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6036,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cambuur",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1376,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6036,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5513,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552117,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-07T18:01:55.682819+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Eredivisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 7 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 17 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 |
| 3 | Ajax | 7 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Twente | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 7 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 13 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | Willem II | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Telstar | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 12.0 | 2.7 | +9.3 | 16 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 11.3 | 3.8 | +7.5 | 17 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 12.4 | 5.5 | +6.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | +4.1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 5.7 | 3.1 | +2.6 | 14 |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 6.9 | 4.9 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 4.8 | 3.9 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 6.7 | 7.7 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 9 | Telstar | 7 | 6.1 | 7.1 | -1.0 | 5 |
| 10 | FC Groningen | 7 | 7.3 | 8.6 | -1.3 | 11 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 9 |
| 12 | Willem II | 7 | 4.6 | 6.7 | -2.1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 5.8 | 8.0 | -2.2 | 5 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 4.1 | 6.4 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 5.3 | 8.2 | -2.9 | 5 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 7 | 5.8 | 11.2 | -5.4 | 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 3.2 | 9.3 | -6.1 | 2 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 3.7 | 10.7 | -7.0 | 13 |
