AI correctly predicted the Ludogorets win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Ludogorets Ludogorets ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 14.8% | 15.6% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 27.9% | 22.4% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Ludogorets | 57.3% | 62.0% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 27.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Ludogorets win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Ludogorets attacking xG significantly stronger (1.59 vs 0.70)
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ludogorets more conservatively (51.8% vs model 57.3%, 5.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ludogorets win 1–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lokomotiv Sofia 14.8% · Draw 27.9% · Ludogorets 57.2%
- xG · Lokomotiv Sofia 0.70 — Ludogorets 1.59
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv Sofia 6.06 · Draw 4.23 · Ludogorets 1.53
- Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv Sofia 15.6% · Draw 22.4% · Ludogorets 62.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv Sofia 6.06 · Draw 4.23 · Ludogorets 1.53
- Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv Sofia 15.6% · Draw 22.4% · Ludogorets 62.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ludogorets win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
72/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.23
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ludogorets win · Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Ludogorets
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
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{
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"ok": true,
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},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
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},
{
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"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ludogorets).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0923,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5725,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6535947712418301,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 17.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.89"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.89
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 96,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.47,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.59,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 18.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.7,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.59,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.70 \u00b7 Away xG 1.59 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +18%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"steam_team": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ludogorets).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ludogorets)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ludogorets)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.198,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ludogorets at 57.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ludogorets as the value side (57.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ludogorets",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ludogorets).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0923,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5725,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6535947712418301,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 17.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.89"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.89
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lokomotiv Sofia 0.70 xG vs Ludogorets 1.59 \u2192 Ludogorets 57.3%",
"Market: Ludogorets ~62.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Lokomotiv Sofia odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Ludogorets projects stronger on expected goals (+0.89 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.82,
"fair_prob": 14.82,
"label": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"market_prob": 15.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.47,
"fair_prob": 27.88,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.65,
"fair_prob": 57.3,
"label": "Ludogorets",
"market_prob": 61.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.86,
"fair_prob": 40.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.86,
"fair_prob": 59.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.11,
"fair_prob": 41.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.11,
"fair_prob": 58.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.88,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.41,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Lokomotiv Sofia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 27.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Ludogorets",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 62.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.7,
"model_prob_pct": 57.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Ludogorets \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lokomotiv Sofia 0.70 xG vs Ludogorets 1.59 \u2192 Ludogorets 57.3%",
"Market: Ludogorets ~62.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Lokomotiv Sofia odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Ludogorets projects stronger on expected goals (+0.89 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.47,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Lokomotiv Sofia odds lengthened \u2191 +4.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Lokomotiv Sofia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Lokomotiv Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Lokomotiv Sofia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Lokomotiv Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Lokomotiv Sofia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.3%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 29.4 pp (at 57.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 29.4,
"max_prob_pct": 57.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.5,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.82,
"edge_pp": -0.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 15.64,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.47,
"edge_pp": 5.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.65,
"edge_pp": -4.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 57.3,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ludogorets",
"market_prob_pct": 61.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Lokomotiv Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ludogorets (62.0%).",
"Lokomotiv Sofia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.3%, 8/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Ludogorets \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.64,
"closing_odds": 4.23,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.64,
"entry_odds": 4.23,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 156h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Lokomotiv Sofia (4.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.06",
"5.90",
"5.75"
],
"display": "6.50 \u2192 4.84 \u2192 6.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 156h 23m",
"pick_team": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.84"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.75,
6.06,
6.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/12 sportsbooks on Lokomotiv Sofia",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 5.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 5.75,
"pick_team": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ludogorets",
"away_team_id": 566,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/566.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ludogorets",
"away_team_public_id": "4sPZPT4UxdywaH",
"away_team_slug": "ludogorets",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1551100,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"home_team_id": 1416,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1416.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lokomotiv Sofia",
"home_team_public_id": "3M60mGZNIZKSzn",
"home_team_slug": "lokomotiv-sofia",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Primera Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_id": 172,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/172.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "4cmwkammgUOIQT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 18:15:00",
"public_id": "2k82OL49fmg5b1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sofia",
"venue_name": "Stadion Lokomotiv"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5577,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6195,
"draw": 0.2241,
"home": 0.1564
},
"model_prob": 0.5725,
"p_final": 0.5933
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1835,
"best_odd": 4.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0095,
"implied_prob": 0.2241,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6195,
"draw": 0.2241,
"home": 0.1564
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.2342
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 6.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.1564,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6195,
"draw": 0.2241,
"home": 0.1564
},
"model_prob": 0.1484,
"p_final": 0.1548
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0811,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.6536,
"model_prob": 0.5725
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.23,
"edge": 0.0427,
"ev": 0.1805,
"implied_prob": 0.2364,
"model_prob": 0.2791
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 6.06,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.165,
"model_prob": 0.1484
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3236,
"alpha_yes": 0.3236,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0811,
"edge_yes": -0.0811,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0822,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.028,
"ev_yes": -0.2074,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1233,
"implied_no": 0.5039,
"implied_yes": 0.4961,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3236,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.028,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"model_prob": 0.585,
"p_final": 0.5312
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3236,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1233,
"implied_prob": 0.4946,
"model_prob": 0.415,
"p_final": 0.4688
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.5312,
"p_final_yes": 0.4688,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3027,
"alpha_under": 0.3027,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.1186,
"edge_under": 0.1186,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2581,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1257,
"ev_under": 0.198,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0081,
"implied_over": 0.5196,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5186,
"implied_under": 0.4804,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4814,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3027,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0356,
"ev": -0.1257,
"implied_prob": 0.5186,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"p_final": 0.483
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3027,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": 0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"p_final": 0.517
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.483,
"p_final_under": 0.517,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.29,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.198,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.198,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ludogorets)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.198,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ludogorets at 57.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ludogorets as the value side (57.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ludogorets",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ludogorets).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0923,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5725,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6535947712418301,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 17.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.89"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.89
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.415,
"draw_prob": 0.2791,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5725,
"over_prob": 0.401,
"total_xg": 2.29,
"under_prob": 0.599,
"xg_diff": 0.89
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5725,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ludogorets"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3236,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0258,
"market_prob": 0.5054,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.585,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3236,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.028,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"model_prob": 0.585,
"p_final": 0.5312
},
"p_final": 0.5312,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.028,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3236,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1233,
"implied_prob": 0.4946,
"model_prob": 0.415,
"p_final": 0.4688
}
},
"edge": 0.0811,
"ev": 0.0822,
"implied_prob": 0.5039,
"model_prob": 0.585,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3027,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0356,
"market_prob": 0.4814,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.599,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3027,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0356,
"ev": -0.1257,
"implied_prob": 0.5186,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"p_final": 0.483
},
"p_final": 0.517,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0081,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3027,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": 0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.4814,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"p_final": 0.517
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1186,
"ev": 0.198,
"implied_prob": 0.4804,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551100,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.198,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5725,
"draw": 0.2791,
"home": 0.1484
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ludogorets",
"home": "Lokomotiv Sofia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.118602,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.198,
"implied_prob": 0.4804,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.599,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0923,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5725,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6535947712418301,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551100,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T18:14:10.589641+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Liga de Bulgaria — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofía | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofía | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
