AI correctly predicted the Santos Laguna win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna | 45.3% | 28.0% | +17.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.6% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Pachuca | 27.6% | 45.4% | -17.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Pachuca's win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.6%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Santos Laguna win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Pachuca than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Santos Laguna attacking xG significantly stronger (1.66 vs 1.26)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Santos Laguna higher (63.1% vs model 45.3%, 17.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Santos Laguna win 1–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Santos Laguna 45.3% · Draw 27.1% · Pachuca 27.6%
- xG · Santos Laguna 1.66 — Pachuca 1.26
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Santos Laguna 3.46 · Draw 3.64 · Pachuca 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Santos Laguna 28.0% · Draw 26.6% · Pachuca 45.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Santos Laguna 3.46 · Draw 3.64 · Pachuca 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Santos Laguna 28.0% · Draw 26.6% · Pachuca 45.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Santos Laguna win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
3/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Santos Laguna win · Santos Laguna 1–0 Pachuca
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"market_cards": [
{
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"disagreement_label": "Strong",
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{
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},
{
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"edge": 0.0036,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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},
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.084,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.028,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0658,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.028,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 40.5,
"sort_key": 1793.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"alert_team": "Santos Laguna",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.82,
"hero_label": "Pachuca",
"market_prob_pct": 28.0,
"market_team": "Pachuca",
"model_prob_pct": 45.3,
"model_team": "Santos Laguna",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1008,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.566,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santos Laguna at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santos Laguna as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santos Laguna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Santos Laguna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550978 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2797,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4526,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.82,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.66,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.66,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.66 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +23%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"steam_team": "Santos Laguna",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1008,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.566,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santos Laguna at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santos Laguna as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santos Laguna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Santos Laguna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550978 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2797,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4526,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Santos Laguna 1.66 xG vs Pachuca 1.26 \u2192 Santos Laguna 45.3%",
"Market: Pachuca ~28.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Santos Laguna odds \u2191 +12.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Santos Laguna, but the market has moved away from Santos Laguna.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.34,
"fair_prob": 45.31,
"label": "Santos Laguna",
"market_prob": 27.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.48,
"fair_prob": 27.07,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.82,
"fair_prob": 27.62,
"label": "Pachuca",
"market_prob": 45.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.23,
"fair_prob": 55.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.23,
"fair_prob": 44.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.82,
"fair_prob": 59.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.82,
"fair_prob": 40.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.62,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Pachuca",
"market_prob_pct": 45.44,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Santos Laguna"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Pachuca\u0027s win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 27.6%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Santos Laguna",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.3,
"model_prob_pct": 45.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Santos Laguna 1.66 xG vs Pachuca 1.26 \u2192 Santos Laguna 45.3%",
"Market: Pachuca ~28.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Santos Laguna odds \u2191 +12.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Santos Laguna, but the market has moved away from Santos Laguna.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.82,
"hero_label": "Pachuca",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Santos Laguna odds lengthened \u2191 +12.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Santos Laguna has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Pachuca than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Santos Laguna \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Pachuca than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Santos Laguna has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Santos Laguna \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Pachuca more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Santos Laguna has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Santos Laguna."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.7 pp (at 45.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.7,
"max_prob_pct": 45.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Pachuca",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Pachuca higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 17.34,
"edge_pp": 17.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santos Laguna",
"market_prob_pct": 27.97,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.48,
"edge_pp": 0.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -17.82,
"edge_pp": -17.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.62,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pachuca",
"market_prob_pct": 45.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Santos Laguna \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pachuca (28.0%).",
"However, Santos Laguna has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +12.9%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Santos Laguna, Market \u2192 Pachuca, while Santos Laguna odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 113h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Santos Laguna (12.9%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.30",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 2.73 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 113h 44m",
"pick_team": "Santos Laguna",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.73"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.46,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Santos Laguna",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Santos Laguna",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Santos Laguna while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Santos Laguna",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Santos Laguna",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Santos Laguna",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pachuca",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pachuca",
"away_team_id": 2292,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2292.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pachuca",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Pachuca",
"away_team_public_id": "3nOEKuwuh9LaMp",
"away_team_slug": "pachuca",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550978,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Santos Laguna",
"home_team_id": 2285,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2285.webp",
"home_team_name": "Santos Laguna",
"home_team_public_id": "14zj3FxRmBdW2G",
"home_team_slug": "santos-laguna",
"ht.home_team_slug": "santos-laguna",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 03:05:00",
"public_id": "4PmfUbukgRDwQN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Torreon",
"venue_name": "Estadio TSM Corona"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3298,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0587,
"ev": -0.1572,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4544,
"draw": 0.2659,
"home": 0.2797
},
"model_prob": 0.2763,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2977,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4544,
"draw": 0.2659,
"home": 0.2797
},
"model_prob": 0.2711,
"p_final": 0.2674
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2222,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": 0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.2797,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4544,
"draw": 0.2659,
"home": 0.2797
},
"model_prob": 0.4526,
"p_final": 0.3181
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1932,
"ev": -0.4114,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.2763
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": -0.0037,
"ev": -0.0133,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2711
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.1636,
"ev": 0.566,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.4526
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4146,
"alpha_yes": 0.57,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0082,
"edge_yes": -0.0082,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.028,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0681,
"ev_yes": -0.0658,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.084,
"implied_no": 0.3968,
"implied_yes": 0.6032,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4146,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"model_prob": 0.405,
"p_final": 0.3999
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.57,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.084,
"implied_prob": 0.6036,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.5987
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3999,
"p_final_yes": 0.5987,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5924,
"alpha_under": 0.4308,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.29,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": -0.0123,
"edge_under": 0.0123,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0497,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0786,
"ev_under": 0.0099,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0491,
"implied_over": 0.5713,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5744,
"implied_under": 0.4287,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4256,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5924,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0786,
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"model_prob": 0.559,
"p_final": 0.5653
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4308,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.4256,
"model_prob": 0.441,
"p_final": 0.4322
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5653,
"p_final_under": 0.4322,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.92,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1008,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.566,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1008,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1008,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.566,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santos Laguna at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santos Laguna as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santos Laguna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Santos Laguna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550978 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Santos Laguna, but the model still strongly favours Santos Laguna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2797,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4526,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.595,
"draw_prob": 0.2711,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4526,
"over_prob": 0.559,
"total_xg": 2.92,
"under_prob": 0.441,
"xg_diff": 0.4
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": 0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.2797,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4526,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Santos Laguna"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4146,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0036,
"market_prob": 0.3964,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.405,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4146,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"model_prob": 0.405,
"p_final": 0.3999
},
"p_final": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0681,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.57,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.084,
"implied_prob": 0.6036,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.5987
}
},
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.028,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.405,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4308,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0066,
"market_prob": 0.4256,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.441,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5924,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0786,
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"model_prob": 0.559,
"p_final": 0.5653
},
"p_final": 0.4322,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0491,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4308,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.4256,
"model_prob": 0.441,
"p_final": 0.4322
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": 0.0099,
"implied_prob": 0.4287,
"model_prob": 0.441,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550978,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1008,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2763,
"draw": 0.2711,
"home": 0.4526
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pachuca",
"home": "Santos Laguna"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036498,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.2797,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4526,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Santos Laguna",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1008,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2797,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4526,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550978,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T03:04:07.590456+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga MX — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Club América | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Querétaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | León | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 3 | Club América | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Querétaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 12 | León | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 8.2 | 3.2 | +5.0 | 14 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 11.3 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 9 | 9.8 | 6.2 | +3.6 | 13 |
| 4 | Club América | 8 | 9.7 | 6.1 | +3.6 | 17 |
| 5 | Toluca | 10 | 8.9 | 6.1 | +2.8 | 20 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 9.7 | 7.3 | +2.4 | 10 |
| 7 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 8.1 | 5.8 | +2.3 | 18 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | +0.7 | 8 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10.1 | 9.7 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 10 | Querétaro | 9 | 8.6 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 11 | León | 9 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -0.7 | 14 |
| 12 | Puebla | 10 | 7.3 | 8.9 | -1.6 | 14 |
| 13 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 6.4 | 8.0 | -1.6 | 12 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 10 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas | 10 | 6.6 | 9.5 | -2.9 | 17 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 12 |
| 17 | Atlante FC | 10 | 6.3 | 10.1 | -3.8 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 4.7 | 13.4 | -8.7 | 3 |
