The model missed the final outcome (Atlante FC win 4–2).
The model had projected Monterrey at 47.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Monterrey Atlante FC ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 24.5% | 29.5% | -5.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.3% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Monterrey | 47.7% | 44.2% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Atlante FC's win probability at 29.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 24.5%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Atlante FC win 4–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Atlante FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.71) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Monterrey by 5.0 percentage points (52.8% vs model 47.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlante FC 24.5% · Draw 27.9% · Monterrey 47.7%
- xG · Atlante FC 1.10 — Monterrey 1.61
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlante FC 3.28 · Draw 3.68 · Monterrey 2.19
- Implied 1X2 · Atlante FC 29.5% · Draw 26.3% · Monterrey 44.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlante FC 3.28 · Draw 3.68 · Monterrey 2.19
- Implied 1X2 · Atlante FC 29.5% · Draw 26.3% · Monterrey 44.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atlante FC win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atlante FC win · Atlante FC 4–2 Monterrey
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0002,
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{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.6%",
"alert_team": "Monterrey",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
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"hero_edge_pp": -5.05,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Monterrey at 47.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Monterrey as the value side (47.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Monterrey",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0002,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4766,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0438,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 19.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.51"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.51
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.05,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.61,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 19.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.1,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.61,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.10 \u00b7 Away xG 1.61 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +19%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.6%",
"steam_team": "Monterrey",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Monterrey at 47.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Monterrey as the value side (47.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Monterrey",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0002,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4766,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0438,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 19.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.51"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.51
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atlante FC 1.10 xG vs Monterrey 1.61 \u2192 Monterrey 47.7%",
"Market: Monterrey ~44.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Monterrey odds \u2191 +12.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Monterrey, but the market has moved away from Monterrey.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.05,
"fair_prob": 24.46,
"label": "Atlante FC",
"market_prob": 29.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.57,
"fair_prob": 27.87,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.48,
"fair_prob": 47.67,
"label": "Monterrey",
"market_prob": 44.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.82,
"fair_prob": 50.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.82,
"fair_prob": 49.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.17,
"fair_prob": 54.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.17,
"fair_prob": 45.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Atlante FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.51,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Monterrey"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Atlante FC\u0027s win probability at 29.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 24.5%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Monterrey",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.5,
"model_prob_pct": 47.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atlante FC 1.10 xG vs Monterrey 1.61 \u2192 Monterrey 47.7%",
"Market: Monterrey ~44.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Monterrey odds \u2191 +12.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Monterrey, but the market has moved away from Monterrey.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.05,
"hero_label": "Atlante FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Monterrey odds lengthened \u2191 +12.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Monterrey has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Atlante FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Monterrey \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Atlante FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Monterrey has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Monterrey \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Atlante FC above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Monterrey has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Monterrey."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.8 pp (at 47.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 19.8,
"max_prob_pct": 47.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Atlante FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Atlante FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.05,
"edge_pp": -5.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atlante FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.57,
"edge_pp": 1.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.87,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.48,
"edge_pp": 3.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Monterrey",
"market_prob_pct": 44.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Monterrey \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Monterrey (44.2%).",
"However, Monterrey has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +12.6%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Monterrey, Market \u2192 Monterrey, while Monterrey odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.49,
"closing_odds": 3.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.49,
"entry_odds": 3.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Monterrey (12.6%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.19",
"2.05",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.20 \u2192 1.85 \u2192 2.15",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 54m",
"pick_team": "Monterrey",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.19,
2.15
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.19"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Monterrey",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Monterrey",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.6%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved away from Monterrey while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Monterrey",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.6%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Monterrey",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Monterrey",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "monterrey",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Monterrey",
"away_team_id": 2282,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2282.webp",
"away_team_name": "Monterrey",
"away_team_public_id": "08rbWoVnA8qNux",
"away_team_slug": "monterrey",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550975,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Atlante FC",
"home_team_id": 2312,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2312.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atlante FC",
"home_team_public_id": "2GINfUjvJVqBxK",
"home_team_slug": "atlante-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "atlante-fc",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 01:00:00",
"public_id": "3sjGhHcmLvC713",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Mexico City",
"venue_name": "Estadio Azul"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4266,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": 0.0002,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.2951
},
"model_prob": 0.4766,
"p_final": 0.4567
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2929,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0152,
"implied_prob": 0.263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.2951
},
"model_prob": 0.2788,
"p_final": 0.2676
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2773,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.2951,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.2951
},
"model_prob": 0.2447,
"p_final": 0.2811
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.4566,
"model_prob": 0.4766
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": 0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2788
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": -0.0602,
"ev": -0.1974,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.2447
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3346,
"alpha_yes": 0.368,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0317,
"edge_yes": -0.0317,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0373,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.053,
"ev_yes": -0.1106,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0919,
"implied_no": 0.4193,
"implied_yes": 0.5807,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3346,
"best_odd": 2.195,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4216,
"model_prob": 0.451,
"p_final": 0.4314
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.368,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.5784,
"model_prob": 0.549,
"p_final": 0.5676
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4314,
"p_final_yes": 0.5676,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.381,
"alpha_under": 0.3463,
"best_over_odd": 1.79,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.0382,
"edge_under": 0.0382,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0889,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0837,
"ev_under": 0.0556,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0309,
"implied_over": 0.5472,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5474,
"implied_under": 0.4528,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.381,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0837,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3463,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5328,
"p_final_under": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0556,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Monterrey at 47.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Monterrey as the value side (47.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Monterrey",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Monterrey, but the model still strongly favours Monterrey.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
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"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
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"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 19.3,
"reasons": [
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"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": 5,
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},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2788,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4766,
"over_prob": 0.509,
"total_xg": 2.71,
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"type": "neutral",
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"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
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"side_label": "Monterrey"
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},
"match_id": 1550975,
"match_regime": {
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"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0556,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Atlante FC"
},
"top_pick": {
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
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},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550975,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T00:59:22.620382+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga MX — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Club América | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Querétaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | León | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 3 | Club América | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Querétaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 12 | León | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 8.2 | 3.2 | +5.0 | 14 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 11.3 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 9 | 9.8 | 6.2 | +3.6 | 13 |
| 4 | Club América | 8 | 9.7 | 6.1 | +3.6 | 17 |
| 5 | Toluca | 10 | 8.9 | 6.1 | +2.8 | 20 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 9.7 | 7.3 | +2.4 | 10 |
| 7 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 8.1 | 5.8 | +2.3 | 18 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | +0.7 | 8 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10.1 | 9.7 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 10 | Querétaro | 9 | 8.6 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 11 | León | 9 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -0.7 | 14 |
| 12 | Puebla | 10 | 7.3 | 8.9 | -1.6 | 14 |
| 13 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 6.4 | 8.0 | -1.6 | 12 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 10 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas | 10 | 6.6 | 9.5 | -2.9 | 17 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 12 |
| 17 | Atlante FC | 10 | 6.3 | 10.1 | -3.8 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 4.7 | 13.4 | -8.7 | 3 |
