AI correctly predicted the Chivas Guadalajara win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Chivas Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chivas Guadalajara | 46.8% | 61.1% | -14.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.2% | 20.8% | +9.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Pumas UNAM | 23.0% | 18.1% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Chivas Guadalajara's win probability at 61.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Chivas Guadalajara win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Chivas Guadalajara than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Chivas Guadalajara attacking xG significantly stronger (1.42 vs 0.93)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Chivas Guadalajara higher (61.1% vs model 46.8%, 14.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Chivas Guadalajara win 3–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Chivas Guadalajara 46.7% · Draw 30.2% · Pumas UNAM 23.1%
- xG · Chivas Guadalajara 1.42 — Pumas UNAM 0.93
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 00:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Chivas Guadalajara 1.58 · Draw 4.63 · Pumas UNAM 5.33
- Implied 1X2 · Chivas Guadalajara 61.1% · Draw 20.8% · Pumas UNAM 18.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Chivas Guadalajara 1.58 · Draw 4.63 · Pumas UNAM 5.33
- Implied 1X2 · Chivas Guadalajara 61.1% · Draw 20.8% · Pumas UNAM 18.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Chivas Guadalajara win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
28/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.58
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Chivas Guadalajara win · Chivas Guadalajara 3–0 Pumas UNAM
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.1418,
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},
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "5/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chivas Guadalajara at 46.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chivas Guadalajara as the value side (46.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
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},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
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"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
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"primary": {
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chivas Guadalajara \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550963 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chivas Guadalajara).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1418,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4674,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.49"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.49
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.35714285714285715,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.6,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.31,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.31,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.93,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 0.93 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chivas Guadalajara)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chivas Guadalajara)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2943,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.399,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chivas Guadalajara at 46.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chivas Guadalajara as the value side (46.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chivas Guadalajara \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550963 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chivas Guadalajara).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1418,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4674,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.49"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.49
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chivas Guadalajara 1.42 xG vs Pumas UNAM 0.93 \u2192 Chivas Guadalajara 46.8%",
"Market: Chivas Guadalajara ~61.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Chivas Guadalajara projects stronger on expected goals (+0.49 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.31,
"fair_prob": 46.75,
"label": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"market_prob": 61.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.39,
"fair_prob": 30.23,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob": 23.02,
"label": "Pumas UNAM",
"market_prob": 18.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.76,
"fair_prob": 41.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.76,
"fair_prob": 58.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.54,
"fair_prob": 47.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.44,
"fair_prob": 52.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.75,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"market_prob_pct": 61.06,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Chivas Guadalajara\u0027s win probability at 61.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.31,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 61.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.3,
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Chivas Guadalajara \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chivas Guadalajara 1.42 xG vs Pumas UNAM 0.93 \u2192 Chivas Guadalajara 46.8%",
"Market: Chivas Guadalajara ~61.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Chivas Guadalajara projects stronger on expected goals (+0.49 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.31,
"hero_label": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Chivas Guadalajara than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Chivas Guadalajara than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Chivas Guadalajara more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/14), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.31,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.5 pp (at 46.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 16.5,
"max_prob_pct": 46.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Chivas Guadalajara higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.31,
"edge_pp": -14.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.75,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"market_prob_pct": 61.06,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.39,
"edge_pp": 9.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.23,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.92,
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pumas UNAM",
"market_prob_pct": 18.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chivas Guadalajara (61.1%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.0%, 5/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Chivas Guadalajara \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 63.29,
"closing_odds": 1.58,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 63.29,
"entry_odds": 1.58,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "5/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.70 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 4.20) \u2014 net 5.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.63",
"4.31",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.70 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 46m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
4.63,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.3",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.63"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/14",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "u-n-a-m-pumas",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pumas UNAM",
"away_team_id": 2286,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2286.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pumas UNAM",
"away_team_public_id": "4Jte9oA2b8bjZw",
"away_team_slug": "u-n-a-m-pumas",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550963,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"home_team_id": 2278,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2278.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"home_team_public_id": "4B9JkXMFQlzpFm",
"home_team_slug": "guadalajara-chivas",
"ht.home_team_slug": "guadalajara-chivas",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 01:07:00",
"public_id": "1JT8BO8GvMeSuz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Zapopan",
"venue_name": "Estadio Akron"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1852,
"best_odd": 5.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": 0.0136,
"implied_prob": 0.181,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.181,
"draw": 0.2084,
"home": 0.6106
},
"model_prob": 0.2305,
"p_final": 0.1902
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1719,
"best_odd": 4.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": 0.0394,
"implied_prob": 0.2084,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.181,
"draw": 0.2084,
"home": 0.6106
},
"model_prob": 0.3022,
"p_final": 0.2245
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4711,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0675,
"ev": -0.1418,
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.181,
"draw": 0.2084,
"home": 0.6106
},
"model_prob": 0.4674,
"p_final": 0.5431
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.33,
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.2283,
"implied_prob": 0.1876,
"model_prob": 0.2305
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.63,
"edge": 0.0862,
"ev": 0.399,
"implied_prob": 0.216,
"model_prob": 0.3022
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.1655,
"ev": -0.2615,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.4674
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5052,
"alpha_yes": 0.5548,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0544,
"edge_yes": -0.0554,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0742,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.022,
"ev_yes": -0.1118,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1321,
"implied_no": 0.4696,
"implied_yes": 0.5304,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5052,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": -0.022,
"implied_prob": 0.4683,
"model_prob": 0.524,
"p_final": 0.4964
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5548,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1321,
"implied_prob": 0.5317,
"model_prob": 0.475,
"p_final": 0.5002
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4964,
"p_final_yes": 0.5002,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4731,
"alpha_under": 0.4301,
"best_over_odd": 1.71,
"best_under_odd": 2.22,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.665,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.1476,
"edge_under": 0.1476,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2869,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1771,
"ev_under": 0.2943,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0739,
"implied_over": 0.5646,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5636,
"implied_under": 0.4354,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4364,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4731,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0693,
"ev": -0.1771,
"implied_prob": 0.5636,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.4942
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4301,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.063,
"ev": 0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.4364,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"p_final": 0.4995
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4942,
"p_final_under": 0.4995,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.35,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2943,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.399,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2943,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chivas Guadalajara)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2943,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.399,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chivas Guadalajara at 46.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chivas Guadalajara as the value side (46.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chivas Guadalajara",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chivas Guadalajara \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550963 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chivas Guadalajara).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1418,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4674,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.49"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.49
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.475,
"draw_prob": 0.3022,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4674,
"over_prob": 0.417,
"total_xg": 2.35,
"under_prob": 0.583,
"xg_diff": 0.49
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0394,
"implied_prob": 0.2084,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3022,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0675,
"ev": -0.1418,
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4674,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chivas Guadalajara"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5052,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0281,
"market_prob": 0.4683,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.524,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5052,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": -0.022,
"implied_prob": 0.4683,
"model_prob": 0.524,
"p_final": 0.4964
},
"p_final": 0.4964,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.022,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5548,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1321,
"implied_prob": 0.5317,
"model_prob": 0.475,
"p_final": 0.5002
}
},
"edge": 0.0544,
"ev": 0.0742,
"implied_prob": 0.4696,
"model_prob": 0.524,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4301,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.063,
"market_prob": 0.4364,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.583,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4731,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0693,
"ev": -0.1771,
"implied_prob": 0.5636,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.4942
},
"p_final": 0.4995,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0739,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4301,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.063,
"ev": 0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.4364,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"p_final": 0.4995
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1476,
"ev": 0.2943,
"implied_prob": 0.4354,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550963,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2943,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2305,
"draw": 0.3022,
"home": 0.4674
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pumas UNAM",
"home": "Chivas Guadalajara"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.105691,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2943,
"implied_prob": 0.4354,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.583,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1418,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4674,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2615,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550963,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T01:06:06.513643+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga MX — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Club América | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Querétaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | León | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 3 | Club América | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Querétaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 12 | León | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 8.2 | 3.2 | +5.0 | 14 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 11.3 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 9 | 9.8 | 6.2 | +3.6 | 13 |
| 4 | Club América | 8 | 9.7 | 6.1 | +3.6 | 17 |
| 5 | Toluca | 10 | 8.9 | 6.1 | +2.8 | 20 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 9.7 | 7.3 | +2.4 | 10 |
| 7 | Chivas Guadalajara | 10 | 8.1 | 5.8 | +2.3 | 18 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | +0.7 | 8 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10.1 | 9.7 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 10 | Querétaro | 9 | 8.6 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 11 | León | 9 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -0.7 | 14 |
| 12 | Puebla | 10 | 7.3 | 8.9 | -1.6 | 14 |
| 13 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 6.4 | 8.0 | -1.6 | 12 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 10 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas | 10 | 6.6 | 9.5 | -2.9 | 17 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 12 |
| 17 | Atlante FC | 10 | 6.3 | 10.1 | -3.8 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 9 | 4.7 | 13.4 | -8.7 | 3 |
