The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Atlante FC at 36.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Atlante FC Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 33.8% | 49.1% | -15.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.0% | 26.6% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Atlante FC | 36.2% | 24.4% | +11.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Atlas's win probability at 49.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Atlas than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Atlante FC; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atlante FC by 15.2 percentage points (51.5% vs model 36.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlas 33.8% · Draw 29.9% · Atlante FC 36.2%
- xG · Atlas 1.25 — Atlante FC 1.30
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlas 1.97 · Draw 3.41 · Atlante FC 4.27
- Implied 1X2 · Atlas 49.0% · Draw 28.3% · Atlante FC 22.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlas 1.97 · Draw 3.64 · Atlante FC 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Atlas 49.1% · Draw 26.6% · Atlante FC 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
8/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Atlas 1–1 Atlante FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"correct_score": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Atlas or Atlante FC",
"prob": 70.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 43.8,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.36,
"draw": 26.56,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 02:59:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 02:29:33",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Atlas",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_d",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.77,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.56,
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"movement_negligible": false,
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"top_value_gap": {
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},
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"consensus_odds": 3.97,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0833,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 8.3,
"text": "+8.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.4391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Atlante FC",
"sort_key": 10224.97,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"ev_under": null,
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "lean",
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},
{
"decision": "lean",
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},
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"ev_yes": null,
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"id": "btts",
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"alert_team": "Atlas",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.25,
"hero_label": "Atlas",
"market_prob_pct": 24.4,
"market_team": "Atlas",
"model_prob_pct": 36.2,
"model_team": "Atlante FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.439,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atlante FC at 36.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atlante FC as the value side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atlante FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atlante FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +44% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550954 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +44% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3625,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2518891687657431,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.25,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.25,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"steam_team": "Atlas",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.439,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atlante FC at 36.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atlante FC as the value side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atlante FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atlante FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +44% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550954 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +44% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3625,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2518891687657431,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atlas 1.25 xG vs Atlante FC 1.30 \u2192 Atlante FC 36.2%",
"Market: Atlas ~24.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Atlas odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Atlante FC, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.25,
"fair_prob": 33.83,
"label": "Atlas",
"market_prob": 49.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.42,
"fair_prob": 29.98,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.83,
"fair_prob": 36.19,
"label": "Atlante FC",
"market_prob": 24.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 46.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 53.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.83,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Atlas",
"market_prob_pct": 49.08,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Atlas"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Atlas\u0027s win probability at 49.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.25,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atlante FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Atlante FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atlas 1.25 xG vs Atlante FC 1.30 \u2192 Atlante FC 36.2%",
"Market: Atlas ~24.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Atlas odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Atlante FC, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.25,
"hero_label": "Atlas",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Atlas odds lengthened \u2191 +6.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Atlas than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Atlas than the current fair estimate.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Atlas more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Atlas (\u2191 +6.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.25,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.4 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.4,
"max_prob_pct": 36.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Atlas",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Atlas higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.25,
"edge_pp": -15.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.83,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atlas",
"market_prob_pct": 49.08,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.42,
"edge_pp": 3.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.98,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.56,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.83,
"edge_pp": 11.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.19,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atlante FC",
"market_prob_pct": 24.36,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atlas (24.4%).",
"Atlas odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.1%, 3/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atlante FC, Market \u2192 Atlas, while Atlas odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.76,
"closing_odds": 1.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.76,
"entry_odds": 1.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.91,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 140h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Atlas (swing 2.15 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.91) \u2014 net 6.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.97",
"1.89",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.15 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.91",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 140h 38m",
"pick_team": "Atlas",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.91"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
1.97,
1.91
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.91"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Atlas",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.91,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Atlas",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"current_odds": 1.91,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Atlas",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_team_name": "Atlas",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atlante FC",
"away_team_id": 2312,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2312.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atlante FC",
"away_team_public_id": "2GINfUjvJVqBxK",
"away_team_slug": "atlante-fc",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550954,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Atlas",
"home_team_id": 2283,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2283.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atlas",
"home_team_public_id": "16fxosOL2DgftL",
"home_team_slug": "atlas",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 03:00:00",
"public_id": "4C8C40fBFKSOeO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Guadalajara",
"venue_name": "Estadio Jalisco"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2465,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2436,
"draw": 0.2656,
"home": 0.4908
},
"model_prob": 0.3625,
"p_final": 0.2729
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": 0.002,
"implied_prob": 0.2656,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2436,
"draw": 0.2656,
"home": 0.4908
},
"model_prob": 0.2995,
"p_final": 0.2753
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4625,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0707,
"ev": -0.1723,
"implied_prob": 0.4908,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2436,
"draw": 0.2656,
"home": 0.4908
},
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.4201
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.1106,
"ev": 0.439,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.3625
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": 0.0903,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2995
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.1696,
"ev": -0.3342,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.338
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.55,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.439,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0833,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.439,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atlante FC at 36.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atlante FC as the value side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atlante FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atlante FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +44% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550954 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +44% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Atlante FC), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3625,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2518891687657431,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2995,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3625,
"over_prob": 0.469,
"total_xg": 2.55,
"under_prob": 0.531,
"xg_diff": 0.05
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.97,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3625,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atlante FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.531,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550954,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0833,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3625,
"draw": 0.2995,
"home": 0.338
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atlante FC",
"home": "Atlas"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.033216,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3625,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atlante FC",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0833,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3625,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2518891687657431,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+43.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550954,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T02:59:11.390119+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga MX — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club América | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Toluca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Querétaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Pumas UNAM | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | León | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pachuca | 8 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 11 |
| 2 | Monterrey | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Club América | 6 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 16 |
| 4 | Toluca | 6 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 13 |
| 5 | Chivas Guadalajara | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Pumas UNAM | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Querétaro | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | Atlas | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Puebla | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | León | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Necaxa | 8 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Atlético San Luis | 7 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 8 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 7 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 8.2 | 3.2 | +5.0 | 13 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 11.3 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 12 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 6 | 9.8 | 6.2 | +3.6 | 9 |
| 4 | Club América | 6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | +3.6 | 16 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 7 | 9.7 | 7.3 | +2.4 | 6 |
| 6 | Chivas Guadalajara | 7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | +2.3 | 14 |
| 7 | Toluca | 6 | 7.0 | 5.5 | +1.5 | 13 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | +0.7 | 8 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 10.1 | 9.7 | +0.4 | 1 |
| 10 | Querétaro | 7 | 8.6 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 13 |
| 11 | Puebla | 7 | 6.7 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 13 |
| 12 | León | 7 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -0.7 | 10 |
| 13 | Pumas UNAM | 7 | 6.4 | 8.0 | -1.6 | 11 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 8 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 11 |
| 15 | Atlas | 7 | 6.6 | 9.5 | -2.9 | 13 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 7 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 6 |
| 17 | Atlante FC | 8 | 6.3 | 10.1 | -3.8 | 7 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 7 | 4.7 | 13.4 | -8.7 | 0 |
