Tenga cuidado
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Mayor movimiento del día
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 8h
Steam multi-casa en Colón (10.7%, 10/11) — acortamiento alineado, no un blip de una sola casa.
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
La estimación estadística justa es materialmente más alta que el mercado en Colón.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en Colón.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colón | 40.42% | 27.8% | +12.6 pp |
| Empate | 29.44% | 31.03% | -1.6 pp |
| Fenix | 30.14% | 41.17% | -11.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
Colón market context before kickoff
📈 Steam on Colón
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
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},
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"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.314,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Col\u00f3n"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0799,
"ev": 0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0956,
"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1550639,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1664,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.3864,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fenix",
"home": "Col\u00f3n"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.060216,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550639,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:50:59.095516+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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