AI correctly predicted the Cúcuta Deportivo win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Cúcuta Deportivo Cúcuta Deportivo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cúcuta Deportivo | 41.6% | 39.5% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 33.2% | 30.2% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Llaneros FC | 25.2% | 30.3% | -5.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Llaneros FC's win probability at 30.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.2%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Cúcuta Deportivo win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Llaneros FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cúcuta Deportivo higher (46.8% vs model 41.6%, 5.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cúcuta Deportivo win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cúcuta Deportivo 41.6% · Draw 33.2% · Llaneros FC 25.2%
- xG · Cúcuta Deportivo 1.19 — Llaneros FC 0.87
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cúcuta Deportivo 2.42 · Draw 3.16 · Llaneros FC 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · Cúcuta Deportivo 39.5% · Draw 30.2% · Llaneros FC 30.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cúcuta Deportivo 2.42 · Draw 3.16 · Llaneros FC 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · Cúcuta Deportivo 39.5% · Draw 30.2% · Llaneros FC 30.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cúcuta Deportivo win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cúcuta Deportivo win · Cúcuta Deportivo 2–1 Llaneros FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.8%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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},
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta Deportivo at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
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}
],
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},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
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"headline": "Primary Bet",
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
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{
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"ok": true,
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},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta Deportivo).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0074,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -11.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.16,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.16,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.87,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -12.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.19,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 0.87 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -12%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"steam_team": "Llaneros FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta Deportivo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta Deportivo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta Deportivo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1352,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1352,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta Deportivo at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00facuta Deportivo as the value side (41.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta Deportivo).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0074,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -11.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u00facuta Deportivo 1.19 xG vs Llaneros FC 0.87 \u2192 C\u00facuta Deportivo 41.6%",
"Market: C\u00facuta Deportivo ~39.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Llaneros FC odds \u2191 +13.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean C\u00facuta Deportivo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.17,
"fair_prob": 41.63,
"label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"market_prob": 39.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.99,
"fair_prob": 33.21,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.16,
"fair_prob": 25.16,
"label": "Llaneros FC",
"market_prob": 30.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.31,
"fair_prob": 34.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.31,
"fair_prob": 66.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.42,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.42,
"fair_prob": 57.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.16,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Llaneros FC",
"market_prob_pct": 30.32,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Llaneros FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Llaneros FC\u0027s win probability at 30.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 25.2%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.16,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "C\u00facuta Deportivo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u00facuta Deportivo 1.19 xG vs Llaneros FC 0.87 \u2192 C\u00facuta Deportivo 41.6%",
"Market: C\u00facuta Deportivo ~39.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Llaneros FC odds \u2191 +13.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean C\u00facuta Deportivo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.16,
"hero_label": "Llaneros FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Llaneros FC odds lengthened \u2191 +13.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Llaneros FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Llaneros FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Llaneros FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Llaneros FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Llaneros FC above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Llaneros FC (\u2191 +13.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Llaneros FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.16,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 41.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 41.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Llaneros FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Llaneros FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.17,
"edge_pp": 2.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"market_prob_pct": 39.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.99,
"edge_pp": 2.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.21,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.16,
"edge_pp": -5.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.16,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Llaneros FC",
"market_prob_pct": 30.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Llaneros FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers C\u00facuta Deportivo (39.5%).",
"However, Llaneros FC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +13.8%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"C\u00facuta Deportivo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.75,
"closing_odds": 3.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.75,
"entry_odds": 3.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 111h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Llaneros FC (13.8%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.10",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.68 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 111h 30m",
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.15,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,6.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Llaneros FC",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Llaneros FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Llaneros FC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "llaneros",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Llaneros FC",
"away_team_id": 1464,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1464.webp",
"away_team_name": "Llaneros FC",
"away_team_public_id": "0QMkymxA6UlS9K",
"away_team_slug": "llaneros",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549796,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"home_team_id": 1470,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1470.webp",
"home_team_name": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"home_team_public_id": "0JP87qGh7lE8RW",
"home_team_slug": "cucuta",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cucuta",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera A de Colombia",
"league_id": 239,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/239.webp",
"league_name": "Primera A de Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1Lhk6g0OB2PKf8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 23:15:00",
"public_id": "0vO0GYJbcCoLjc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"venue_name": "Estadio General Santander"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2768,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.0899,
"implied_prob": 0.3032,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3032,
"draw": 0.3022,
"home": 0.3946
},
"model_prob": 0.2517,
"p_final": 0.2889
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2866,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.3022,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3032,
"draw": 0.3022,
"home": 0.3946
},
"model_prob": 0.332,
"p_final": 0.3107
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4353,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3032,
"draw": 0.3022,
"home": 0.3946
},
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"p_final": 0.4041
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": -0.0658,
"ev": -0.2072,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.2517
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": 0.049,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.332
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0031,
"ev": 0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.4163
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3057,
"alpha_yes": 0.3057,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0842,
"edge_yes": -0.0842,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0295,
"ev_yes": -0.2127,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1247,
"implied_no": 0.4948,
"implied_yes": 0.5052,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.4946,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5204
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4796
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5204,
"p_final_yes": 0.4796,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2952,
"alpha_under": 0.3248,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.095,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.675,
"edge_over": -0.1031,
"edge_under": 0.1031,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.252,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1337,
"ev_under": 0.1352,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0125,
"implied_over": 0.4431,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4443,
"implied_under": 0.5569,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5557,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2952,
"best_odd": 2.095,
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"model_prob": 0.34,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3248,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": -0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.5557,
"model_prob": 0.66,
"p_final": 0.5896
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4135,
"p_final_under": 0.5896,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.06,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1352,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1352,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1352,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta Deportivo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1352,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1352,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta Deportivo at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00facuta Deportivo as the value side (41.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00facuta Deportivo).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0074,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -11.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.421,
"draw_prob": 0.332,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4163,
"over_prob": 0.34,
"total_xg": 2.06,
"under_prob": 0.66,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.865,
"edge": 0.0258,
"market_prob": 0.4946,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.4946,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5204
},
"p_final": 0.5204,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3057,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4796
}
},
"edge": 0.0842,
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3248,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.675,
"edge": 0.0339,
"market_prob": 0.5557,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.66,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2952,
"best_odd": 2.095,
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"model_prob": 0.34,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"p_final": 0.5896,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0125,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3248,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": -0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.5557,
"model_prob": 0.66,
"p_final": 0.5896
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1031,
"ev": 0.1352,
"implied_prob": 0.5569,
"model_prob": 0.66,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1549796,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1352,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2517,
"draw": 0.332,
"home": 0.4163
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Llaneros FC",
"home": "C\u00facuta Deportivo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089232,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1352,
"implied_prob": 0.5569,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.66,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4163,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0074,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549796,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T23:14:06.583056+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera A de Colombia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | La Equidad | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 19 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 8 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | América de Cali | 19 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 15 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
| 20 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | +4.7 | 33 |
| 2 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 8.9 | 4.5 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 19 | 7.8 | 4.3 | +3.5 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 6.8 | 4.2 | +2.6 | 31 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 5.4 | 3.1 | +2.3 | 27 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | 33 |
| 8 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 28 |
| 11 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 35 |
| 12 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 29 |
| 13 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 6.0 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 23 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 22 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 19 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -3.4 | 22 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -5.1 | 18 |
