AI correctly predicted the La Equidad win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 La Equidad La Equidad ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (La Equidad win 3–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 20:03 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · La Equidad 0.97 — Llaneros FC 0.72
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 21:05 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result La Equidad win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
La Equidad win · La Equidad 3–2 Llaneros FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
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},
"over_under": {
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"confidence": "high",
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1909,
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{
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Llaneros FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "La Equidad",
"model_prob_pct": 38.4,
"model_team": "La Equidad",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2236,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 69,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Equidad at 38.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Equidad as the value side (38.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Equidad",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side La Equidad \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.71 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.71 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
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"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
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"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1909,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3843,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3275,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -28.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6428571428571429,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.72,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -28.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.97,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 0.97,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.97 \u00b7 Away xG 0.72 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -28%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Llaneros FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 69,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2236,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 69,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Equidad at 38.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Equidad as the value side (38.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Equidad",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side La Equidad \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.71 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.71 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1909,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3843,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3275,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -28.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: La Equidad 0.97 xG vs Llaneros FC 0.72 \u2192 La Equidad 38.4%",
"Market Drift: Llaneros FC odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean La Equidad with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.42,
"label": "La Equidad",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.12,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 24.46,
"label": "Llaneros FC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.07,
"fair_prob": 24.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.07,
"fair_prob": 76.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.95,
"fair_prob": 33.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.95,
"fair_prob": 66.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "La Equidad",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "La Equidad \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 69,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: La Equidad 0.97 xG vs Llaneros FC 0.72 \u2192 La Equidad 38.4%",
"Market Drift: Llaneros FC odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean La Equidad with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Llaneros FC odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.3 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.3,
"max_prob_pct": 38.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "La Equidad",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.12,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Llaneros FC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans La Equidad (38.4%).",
"Llaneros FC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.1%, 9/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"La Equidad \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 20.0,
"entry_odds": 5.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Llaneros FC (11.1%, 9/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.75",
"4.50"
],
"display": "5.25 \u2192 4.10 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 57m",
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Llaneros FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Llaneros FC",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "Llaneros FC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "llaneros",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Llaneros FC",
"away_team_id": 1464,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1464.webp",
"away_team_name": "Llaneros FC",
"away_team_public_id": "0QMkymxA6UlS9K",
"away_team_slug": "llaneros",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549778,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "La Equidad",
"home_team_id": 1134,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1134.webp",
"home_team_name": "La Equidad",
"home_team_name_canonical": "La Equidad",
"home_team_public_id": "2fHEao7qMjgHfo",
"home_team_slug": "la-equidad",
"ht.home_team_slug": "la-equidad",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera A de Colombia",
"league_id": 239,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/239.webp",
"league_name": "Primera A de Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1Lhk6g0OB2PKf8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 21:05:00",
"public_id": "13yqPsfcldqdEL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Metropolitano de Techo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1854,
"best_odd": 4.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0279,
"implied_prob": 0.1956,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1956,
"draw": 0.2733,
"home": 0.531
},
"model_prob": 0.2443,
"p_final": 0.2047
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2559,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": 0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.2733,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1956,
"draw": 0.2733,
"home": 0.531
},
"model_prob": 0.3714,
"p_final": 0.2984
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4679,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0687,
"ev": -0.1909,
"implied_prob": 0.531,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1956,
"draw": 0.2733,
"home": 0.531
},
"model_prob": 0.3843,
"p_final": 0.4624
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.25,
"edge": 0.0538,
"ev": 0.2825,
"implied_prob": 0.1905,
"model_prob": 0.2443
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0857,
"ev": 0.3,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.3714
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1622,
"ev": -0.2968,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3843
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5109,
"alpha_yes": 0.4644,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1095,
"edge_yes": -0.1095,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1504,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0125,
"ev_yes": -0.263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1784,
"implied_no": 0.5555,
"implied_yes": 0.4445,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5109,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0536,
"ev": 0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.56,
"model_prob": 0.665,
"p_final": 0.6136
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4644,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0488,
"ev": -0.1784,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"model_prob": 0.335,
"p_final": 0.3912
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.6136,
"p_final_yes": 0.3912,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3294,
"alpha_under": 0.4529,
"best_over_odd": 2.37,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.59,
"edge_over": -0.1707,
"edge_under": 0.1707,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4312,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1877,
"ev_under": 0.2236,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0616,
"implied_over": 0.4107,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4087,
"implied_under": 0.5893,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5913,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3294,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0556,
"ev": -0.1877,
"implied_prob": 0.4087,
"model_prob": 0.24,
"p_final": 0.3532
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4529,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0764,
"ev": 0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.5913,
"model_prob": 0.76,
"p_final": 0.6677
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3532,
"p_final_under": 0.6677,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.69,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2236,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2236,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2236,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 69,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Equidad at 38.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Equidad as the value side (38.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Equidad",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side La Equidad \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.71 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549778 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.71 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Equidad).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1909,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3843,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3275,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -28.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.335,
"draw_prob": 0.3714,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3843,
"over_prob": 0.24,
"total_xg": 1.69,
"under_prob": 0.76,
"xg_diff": 0.25
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0687,
"ev": -0.1909,
"implied_prob": 0.531,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3843,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "La Equidad"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5109,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0536,
"market_prob": 0.56,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.665,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5109,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0536,
"ev": 0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.56,
"model_prob": 0.665,
"p_final": 0.6136
},
"p_final": 0.6136,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0125,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4644,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0488,
"ev": -0.1784,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"model_prob": 0.335,
"p_final": 0.3912
}
},
"edge": 0.1095,
"ev": 0.1504,
"implied_prob": 0.5555,
"model_prob": 0.665,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4529,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0764,
"market_prob": 0.5913,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.76,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3294,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0556,
"ev": -0.1877,
"implied_prob": 0.4087,
"model_prob": 0.24,
"p_final": 0.3532
},
"p_final": 0.6677,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0616,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4529,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0764,
"ev": 0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.5913,
"model_prob": 0.76,
"p_final": 0.6677
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1707,
"ev": 0.2236,
"implied_prob": 0.5893,
"model_prob": 0.76,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1549778,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2236,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2443,
"draw": 0.3714,
"home": 0.3843
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1504,
"implied_prob": 0.5555,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.665,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1504,
"implied_prob": 0.5555,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.665,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Llaneros FC",
"home": "La Equidad"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.220917,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2236,
"implied_prob": 0.5893,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.76,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1909,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.531,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3843,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3275,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549778,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T20:03:54.995625+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera A de Colombia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | La Equidad | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 19 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 8 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | América de Cali | 19 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 15 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
| 20 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | +4.7 | 33 |
| 2 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 8.9 | 4.5 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 19 | 7.8 | 4.3 | +3.5 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 6.8 | 4.2 | +2.6 | 31 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 5.4 | 3.1 | +2.3 | 27 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | 33 |
| 8 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 28 |
| 11 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 35 |
| 12 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 29 |
| 13 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 6.0 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 23 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 22 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 19 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -3.4 | 22 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -5.1 | 18 |
