The model missed the final outcome (Once Caldas win 1–0).
The model had projected Deportes Tolima at 37.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Deportes Tolima Once Caldas ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Once Caldas | 27.8% | 41.7% | -13.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 34.4% | 30.1% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Deportes Tolima | 37.8% | 28.2% | +9.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Once Caldas's win probability at 41.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.8%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Once Caldas win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Once Caldas than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.97, 1 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Deportes Tolima; match finished Once Caldas
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportes Tolima by 13.9 percentage points (51.7% vs model 37.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Once Caldas 27.8% · Draw 34.4% · Deportes Tolima 37.8%
- xG · Once Caldas 0.89 — Deportes Tolima 1.08
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Once Caldas 2.29 · Draw 3.17 · Deportes Tolima 3.38
- Implied 1X2 · Once Caldas 41.7% · Draw 30.1% · Deportes Tolima 28.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Once Caldas 2.29 · Draw 3.17 · Deportes Tolima 3.38
- Implied 1X2 · Once Caldas 41.7% · Draw 30.1% · Deportes Tolima 28.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 23:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Once Caldas win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
10/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Once Caldas win · Once Caldas 1–0 Deportes Tolima
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"consensus_odds": 3.38,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0372,
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"ev_display": {
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"text": "+3.7%"
},
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},
"model_prob": 0.3778,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Deportes Tolima",
"sort_key": 10033.48,
"tier": "best"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"alert_team": "Deportes Tolima",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.88,
"hero_label": "Once Caldas",
"market_prob_pct": 28.2,
"market_team": "Once Caldas",
"model_prob_pct": 37.8,
"model_team": "Deportes Tolima",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1782,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.277,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Tolima at 37.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Tolima as the value side (37.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Tolima",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Deportes Tolima \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.86 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549750 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.86 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0372,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3778,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2958579881656805,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.19"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.19
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.88,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.88,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.89,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.08,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.89 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -20%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"steam_team": "Deportes Tolima",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1782,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.277,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Tolima at 37.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Tolima as the value side (37.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Tolima",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Deportes Tolima \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.86 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549750 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.86 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0372,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3778,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2958579881656805,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.19"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.19
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Once Caldas 0.89 xG vs Deportes Tolima 1.08 \u2192 Deportes Tolima 37.8%",
"Market: Once Caldas ~28.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportes Tolima odds \u2191 +9.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportes Tolima, but the market has moved away from Deportes Tolima.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.88,
"fair_prob": 27.79,
"label": "Once Caldas",
"market_prob": 41.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.32,
"fair_prob": 34.42,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.56,
"fair_prob": 37.79,
"label": "Deportes Tolima",
"market_prob": 28.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.98,
"fair_prob": 31.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.98,
"fair_prob": 68.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.07,
"fair_prob": 40.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.07,
"fair_prob": 59.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.79,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Once Caldas",
"market_prob_pct": 41.67,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Deportes Tolima"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Once Caldas\u0027s win probability at 41.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 27.8%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.88,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportes Tolima",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Once Caldas 0.89 xG vs Deportes Tolima 1.08 \u2192 Deportes Tolima 37.8%",
"Market: Once Caldas ~28.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportes Tolima odds \u2191 +9.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportes Tolima, but the market has moved away from Deportes Tolima.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.88,
"hero_label": "Once Caldas",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Deportes Tolima odds lengthened \u2191 +9.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Deportes Tolima has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Once Caldas than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Once Caldas than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Deportes Tolima has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Once Caldas more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Deportes Tolima has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.88,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.4 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.4,
"max_prob_pct": 37.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Once Caldas",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Once Caldas higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.88,
"edge_pp": -13.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.79,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Once Caldas",
"market_prob_pct": 41.67,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.32,
"edge_pp": 4.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.56,
"edge_pp": 9.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.79,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportes Tolima",
"market_prob_pct": 28.23,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Once Caldas (28.2%).",
"Deportes Tolima odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.7%, 6/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportes Tolima, Market \u2192 Once Caldas, while Deportes Tolima odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 573h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Deportes Tolima (9.7%, 6/10) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.25",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.98 \u2192 2.96 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 573h 54m",
"pick_team": "Deportes Tolima",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.98"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.96"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.38,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.2 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Deportes Tolima",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Deportes Tolima while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Deportes Tolima",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Deportes Tolima",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Deportes Tolima",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportes-tolima",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportes Tolima",
"away_team_id": 1142,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1142.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportes Tolima",
"away_team_public_id": "4c2sAaWUvDoJFP",
"away_team_slug": "deportes-tolima",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549750,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Once Caldas",
"home_team_id": 1136,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1136.webp",
"home_team_name": "Once Caldas",
"home_team_public_id": "1JF9ghMAW4yvKi",
"home_team_slug": "once-caldas",
"ht.home_team_slug": "once-caldas",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera A de Colombia",
"league_id": 239,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/239.webp",
"league_name": "Primera A de Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1Lhk6g0OB2PKf8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 23:15:00",
"public_id": "47q99irvbjCxRq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Manizales",
"venue_name": "Estadio Palogrande"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.257,
"best_odd": 3.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": 0.0372,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2823,
"draw": 0.301,
"home": 0.4167
},
"model_prob": 0.3778,
"p_final": 0.3069
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2806,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.301,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2823,
"draw": 0.301,
"home": 0.4167
},
"model_prob": 0.3441,
"p_final": 0.3131
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3565,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1589,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2823,
"draw": 0.301,
"home": 0.4167
},
"model_prob": 0.2781,
"p_final": 0.3673
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.38,
"edge": 0.082,
"ev": 0.277,
"implied_prob": 0.2959,
"model_prob": 0.3778
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": 0.0286,
"ev": 0.0907,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.3441
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.1586,
"ev": -0.3631,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.2781
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4443,
"alpha_yes": 0.4443,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1007,
"edge_yes": -0.1007,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1326,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0105,
"ev_yes": -0.2267,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.158,
"implied_no": 0.4923,
"implied_yes": 0.5077,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4443,
"best_odd": 1.885,
"edge": 0.0455,
"ev": 0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.593,
"p_final": 0.5361
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4443,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0455,
"ev": -0.158,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.407,
"p_final": 0.4639
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5361,
"p_final_yes": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4442,
"alpha_under": 0.4886,
"best_over_odd": 2.16,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.68,
"edge_over": -0.1298,
"edge_under": 0.1298,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3196,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1874,
"ev_under": 0.1782,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0396,
"implied_over": 0.4448,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4444,
"implied_under": 0.5552,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5556,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4442,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0575,
"ev": -0.1874,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.315,
"p_final": 0.3869
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4886,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": 0.0633,
"ev": 0.0396,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"p_final": 0.6188
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3869,
"p_final_under": 0.6188,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.97,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1782,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.277,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1782,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1782,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.277,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Tolima at 37.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Tolima as the value side (37.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Tolima",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Deportes Tolima \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.86 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549750 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.86 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Deportes Tolima, but the model still strongly favours Deportes Tolima.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0372,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3778,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2958579881656805,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.19"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.19
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.407,
"draw_prob": 0.3441,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3778,
"over_prob": 0.315,
"total_xg": 1.97,
"under_prob": 0.685,
"xg_diff": 0.19
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.38,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": 0.0372,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3778,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportes Tolima"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.885,
"edge": 0.0455,
"market_prob": 0.4905,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.593,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4443,
"best_odd": 1.885,
"edge": 0.0455,
"ev": 0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.593,
"p_final": 0.5361
},
"p_final": 0.5361,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0105,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4443,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0455,
"ev": -0.158,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.407,
"p_final": 0.4639
}
},
"edge": 0.1007,
"ev": 0.1326,
"implied_prob": 0.4923,
"model_prob": 0.593,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4886,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"edge": 0.0633,
"market_prob": 0.5556,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.685,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4442,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0575,
"ev": -0.1874,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.315,
"p_final": 0.3869
},
"p_final": 0.6188,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0396,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4886,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": 0.0633,
"ev": 0.0396,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"p_final": 0.6188
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1298,
"ev": 0.1782,
"implied_prob": 0.5552,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1549750,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1782,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3778,
"draw": 0.3441,
"home": 0.2781
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1326,
"implied_prob": 0.4923,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.593,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1326,
"implied_prob": 0.4923,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.593,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportes Tolima",
"home": "Once Caldas"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.158687,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1782,
"implied_prob": 0.5552,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.685,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0372,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3778,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2958579881656805,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549750,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T23:14:06.647226+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera A de Colombia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | La Equidad | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 19 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 8 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | América de Cali | 19 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 15 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
| 20 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | +4.7 | 33 |
| 2 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 8.9 | 4.5 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 19 | 7.8 | 4.3 | +3.5 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 6.8 | 4.2 | +2.6 | 31 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 5.4 | 3.1 | +2.3 | 27 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | 33 |
| 8 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 28 |
| 11 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 35 |
| 12 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 29 |
| 13 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 6.0 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 23 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 22 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 19 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -3.4 | 22 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -5.1 | 18 |
