The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Comerciantes Unidos at 39.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Comerciantes Unidos Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 39.3% | 45.1% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.6% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Juan Pablo II College | 33.5% | 27.2% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Juan Pablo II College's win probability at 33.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.2%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Juan Pablo II College.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Comerciantes Unidos; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Comerciantes Unidos by 6.3 percentage points (33.0% vs model 39.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 20:25 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 39.2% · Draw 27.2% · Juan Pablo II College 33.6%
- xG · Comerciantes Unidos 1.56 — Juan Pablo II College 1.43
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 20:09 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Comerciantes Unidos 2.05 · Draw 3.35 · Juan Pablo II College 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 45.1% · Draw 27.6% · Juan Pablo II College 27.2%
- Bookmaker · draftkings
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Comerciantes Unidos 2.05 · Draw 3.35 · Juan Pablo II College 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 45.1% · Draw 27.6% · Juan Pablo II College 27.2%
- Bookmaker · draftkings
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
68/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.4
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Juan Pablo II College
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"odd": 1.8
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{
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.79
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"correct_score": {
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{
"key": "X2",
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},
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{
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"text": "+4.7%"
},
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"text": "-12.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1835,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"sort_key": 5216.56,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"alert_team": "Juan Pablo II College",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"model_prob_pct": 39.3,
"model_team": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Comerciantes Unidos)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Comerciantes Unidos)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0639,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5109,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 63,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Comerciantes Unidos at 39.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Comerciantes Unidos as the value side (39.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Comerciantes Unidos \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549502 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Comerciantes Unidos).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1835,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3924,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2898,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.13"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.13
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.43,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.56,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.56,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.56 \u00b7 Away xG 1.43 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"steam_team": "Juan Pablo II College",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Comerciantes Unidos)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Comerciantes Unidos)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0639,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5109,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 63,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Comerciantes Unidos at 39.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Comerciantes Unidos as the value side (39.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Comerciantes Unidos \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549502 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Comerciantes Unidos).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1835,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3924,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2898,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.13"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.13
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Comerciantes Unidos 1.56 xG vs Juan Pablo II College 1.43 \u2192 Comerciantes Unidos 39.3%",
"Market Drift: Juan Pablo II College odds \u2191 +9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Comerciantes Unidos with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 39.26,
"label": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 27.21,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 33.54,
"label": "Juan Pablo II College",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.7,
"fair_prob": 57.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.7,
"fair_prob": 42.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.87,
"fair_prob": 61.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob": 38.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Comerciantes Unidos \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Comerciantes Unidos 1.56 xG vs Juan Pablo II College 1.43 \u2192 Comerciantes Unidos 39.3%",
"Market Drift: Juan Pablo II College odds \u2191 +9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Comerciantes Unidos with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Juan Pablo II College odds lengthened \u2191 +9.8%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.7 pp (at 39.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.7,
"max_prob_pct": 39.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.21,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Juan Pablo II College",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Comerciantes Unidos (39.3%).",
"Juan Pablo II College odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.8%, 5/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Comerciantes Unidos \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 22.22,
"entry_odds": 4.5,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "5/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 36m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Juan Pablo II College (9.8%, 5/10) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.30",
"4.10"
],
"display": "4.50 \u2192 3.37 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 36m",
"pick_team": "Juan Pablo II College",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.37"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Juan Pablo II College",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Juan Pablo II College",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/10",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Juan Pablo II College",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Juan Pablo II College",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "juan-pablo-ii-college",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Juan Pablo II College",
"away_team_id": 22479,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22479.webp",
"away_team_name": "Juan Pablo II College",
"away_team_public_id": "5U7xNhoHOjTjZ6",
"away_team_slug": "juan-pablo-ii-college",
"country_code": "PE",
"country_display_name": "Peru",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pe.svg",
"country_id": 126,
"country_name": "Peru",
"fixture_id": 1549502,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Peru",
"home_team_display_name": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"home_team_id": 2558,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2558.webp",
"home_team_name": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"home_team_public_id": "2MKLZKaommd9P7",
"home_team_slug": "comerciantes-unidos",
"ht.home_team_slug": "comerciantes-unidos",
"league_country": "Peru",
"league_country_display": "Peru",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Per\u00fa",
"league_id": 281,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/281.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Per\u00fa",
"league_public_id": "0rqkJd8vbYLXJ1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 20:30:00",
"public_id": "0aJ2VGd0gNUfI1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cutervo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2549,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0256,
"ev": 0.0207,
"implied_prob": 0.2355,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2355,
"draw": 0.2558,
"home": 0.5087
},
"model_prob": 0.3357,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2928,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2355,
"draw": 0.2558,
"home": 0.5087
},
"model_prob": 0.2719,
"p_final": 0.2605
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4953,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0576,
"ev": -0.1835,
"implied_prob": 0.5087,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2355,
"draw": 0.2558,
"home": 0.5087
},
"model_prob": 0.3924,
"p_final": 0.4511
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.5,
"edge": 0.1135,
"ev": 0.5109,
"implied_prob": 0.2222,
"model_prob": 0.3357
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": 0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.2719
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.1453,
"ev": -0.2702,
"implied_prob": 0.5376,
"model_prob": 0.3924
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2025,
"alpha_yes": 0.2228,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0687,
"edge_yes": 0.0687,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1915,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1062,
"ev_yes": 0.0639,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0538,
"implied_no": 0.4537,
"implied_yes": 0.5463,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.385,
"p_final": 0.4381
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"model_prob": 0.615,
"p_final": 0.5632
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4381,
"p_final_yes": 0.5632,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2411,
"alpha_under": 0.2191,
"best_over_odd": 1.82,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.77,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.97,
"edge_over": 0.047,
"edge_under": -0.047,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0465,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0471,
"ev_under": -0.1288,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0885,
"implied_over": 0.528,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5267,
"implied_under": 0.472,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4733,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2411,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.575,
"p_final": 0.5384
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2191,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.425,
"p_final": 0.4627
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5384,
"p_final_under": 0.4627,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.99,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0639,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5109,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0639,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Comerciantes Unidos)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0639,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5109,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 63,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Comerciantes Unidos at 39.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Comerciantes Unidos as the value side (39.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Comerciantes Unidos \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549502 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Comerciantes Unidos).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1835,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3924,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2898,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.13"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.13
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.615,
"draw_prob": 0.2719,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3924,
"over_prob": 0.575,
"total_xg": 2.99,
"under_prob": 0.425,
"xg_diff": 0.13
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0207,
"implied_prob": 0.2355,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3357,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Juan Pablo II College",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0576,
"ev": -0.1835,
"implied_prob": 0.5087,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3924,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Comerciantes Unidos"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"edge": 0.0148,
"market_prob": 0.5484,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.615,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.385,
"p_final": 0.4381
},
"p_final": 0.5632,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0538,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
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"p_final": 0.5632
}
},
"edge": 0.0687,
"ev": 0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.5463,
"model_prob": 0.615,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2411,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.5267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.575,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2411,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.575,
"p_final": 0.5384
},
"p_final": 0.5384,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0471,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2191,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.425,
"p_final": 0.4627
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.047,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.528,
"model_prob": 0.575,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549502,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0639,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3357,
"draw": 0.2719,
"home": 0.3924
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Juan Pablo II College",
"home": "Comerciantes Unidos"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.045193,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.5463,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.615,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1835,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5087,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3924,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2898,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549502,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:25:53.545847+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Perú — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 49 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 41 |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 35 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 13 | Atlético Grau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 27 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 38 |
| 2 | Cienciano | 27 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 41 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 46 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 44 | 18 | +26 | 56 |
| 5 | Universitario | 27 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 49 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 27 |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 40 |
| 9 | Cusco FC | 27 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 45 |
| 10 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 39 | 24 | +15 | 48 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 35 |
| 12 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 27 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 42 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 30 |
| 14 | UTC | 27 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 15 |
| 15 | Sport Boys | 27 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 38 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 |
| 17 | Atlético Grau | 27 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 25 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADT | 27 | 3.3 | 0.4 | +2.9 | 25 |
| 2 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 2.9 | 0.3 | +2.6 | 56 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 4.0 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 48 |
| 4 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 2.1 | 1.1 | +1.0 | 30 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 46 |
| 6 | Sport Boys | 27 | 1.8 | 1.7 | +0.1 | 38 |
| 7 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 1.7 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 40 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 38 |
| 9 | Universitario | 27 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 49 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 1.3 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 35 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 1.1 | 2.1 | -1.0 | 34 |
| 12 | Cusco FC | 27 | 1.7 | 2.9 | -1.2 | 45 |
| 13 | UTC | 27 | 0.8 | 2.9 | -2.1 | 15 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 0.4 | 3.3 | -2.9 | 27 |
| 15 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 27 | — | — | — | 42 |
| 16 | Cienciano | 27 | — | — | — | 41 |
| 17 | Atlético Grau | 27 | — | — | — | 32 |
| 18 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | — | — | — | 25 |
