The model missed the final outcome (Juan Pablo II College win 4–0).
The model had projected UCV Moquegua at 38.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 UCV Moquegua Juan Pablo II College ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo II College | 34.3% | 51.0% | -16.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.3% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| UCV Moquegua | 38.7% | 22.7% | +16.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Juan Pablo II College's win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.3%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Juan Pablo II College win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Juan Pablo II College than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.04) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned UCV Moquegua; match finished Juan Pablo II College
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on UCV Moquegua by 16.7 percentage points (55.4% vs model 38.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Juan Pablo II College 34.3% · Draw 26.9% · UCV Moquegua 38.7%
- xG · Juan Pablo II College 1.47 — UCV Moquegua 1.57
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Juan Pablo II College 1.65 · Draw 3.78 · UCV Moquegua 4.86
- Implied 1X2 · Juan Pablo II College 56.3% · Draw 24.6% · UCV Moquegua 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Juan Pablo II College 1.84 · Draw 3.57 · UCV Moquegua 4.14
- Implied 1X2 · Juan Pablo II College 51.0% · Draw 26.3% · UCV Moquegua 22.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Juan Pablo II College win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
5/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.84
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Juan Pablo II College win · Juan Pablo II College 4–0 UCV Moquegua
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0398,
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},
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
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"tier": "best"
},
{
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"alert_team": "UCV Moquegua",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.68,
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"market_prob_pct": 22.7,
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"model_team": "UCV Moquegua",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1232,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6034,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UCV Moquegua at 38.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UCV Moquegua as the value side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UCV Moquegua",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side UCV Moquegua \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549497 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0398,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.68,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.57,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.47,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.57,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.47 \u00b7 Away xG 1.57 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"steam_team": "UCV Moquegua",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1232,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6034,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UCV Moquegua at 38.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UCV Moquegua as the value side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UCV Moquegua",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side UCV Moquegua \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549497 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0398,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Juan Pablo II College 1.47 xG vs UCV Moquegua 1.57 \u2192 UCV Moquegua 38.7%",
"Market: Juan Pablo II College ~22.7% implied",
"Market Drift: UCV Moquegua odds \u2191 +10.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours UCV Moquegua, but the market has moved away from UCV Moquegua.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -16.68,
"fair_prob": 34.34,
"label": "Juan Pablo II College",
"market_prob": 51.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.66,
"fair_prob": 26.96,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.03,
"fair_prob": 38.71,
"label": "UCV Moquegua",
"market_prob": 22.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.89,
"fair_prob": 58.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.13,
"fair_prob": 62.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.13,
"fair_prob": 37.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -16.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.34,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Juan Pablo II College",
"market_prob_pct": 51.02,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "UCV Moquegua"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Juan Pablo II College\u0027s win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.3%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 16.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "UCV Moquegua",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Juan Pablo II College 1.47 xG vs UCV Moquegua 1.57 \u2192 UCV Moquegua 38.7%",
"Market: Juan Pablo II College ~22.7% implied",
"Market Drift: UCV Moquegua odds \u2191 +10.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours UCV Moquegua, but the market has moved away from UCV Moquegua.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.68,
"hero_label": "Juan Pablo II College",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "UCV Moquegua odds lengthened \u2191 +10.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, UCV Moquegua has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Juan Pablo II College than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from UCV Moquegua \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Juan Pablo II College than the current fair estimate.",
"However, UCV Moquegua has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from UCV Moquegua \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Juan Pablo II College more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, UCV Moquegua has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.4 pp (at 38.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.4,
"max_prob_pct": 38.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Juan Pablo II College",
"largest_gap_pp": -16.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Juan Pablo II College higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -16.68,
"edge_pp": -16.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.34,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Juan Pablo II College",
"market_prob_pct": 51.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.66,
"edge_pp": 0.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 16.03,
"edge_pp": 16.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.71,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "UCV Moquegua",
"market_prob_pct": 22.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from UCV Moquegua \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Juan Pablo II College (22.7%).",
"UCV Moquegua odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.5%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 UCV Moquegua, Market \u2192 Juan Pablo II College, while UCV Moquegua odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.35,
"closing_odds": 1.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.35,
"entry_odds": 1.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 51m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on UCV Moquegua (10.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.25",
"4.70",
"4.14"
],
"display": "5.55 \u2192 4.74 \u2192 5.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 51m",
"pick_team": "UCV Moquegua",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.55"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
4.14,
4.86,
5.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,8.1 18.7,18.0 37.3,6.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.14"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "UCV Moquegua",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Market moved away from UCV Moquegua while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "UCV Moquegua",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "UCV Moquegua",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "UCV Moquegua",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ucv-moquegua",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "UCV Moquegua",
"away_team_id": 22489,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22489.webp",
"away_team_name": "UCV Moquegua",
"away_team_public_id": "5NjT3HKdBWrl4C",
"away_team_slug": "ucv-moquegua",
"country_code": "PE",
"country_display_name": "Peru",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pe.svg",
"country_id": 126,
"country_name": "Peru",
"fixture_id": 1549497,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Peru",
"home_team_display_name": "Juan Pablo II College",
"home_team_id": 22479,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22479.webp",
"home_team_name": "Juan Pablo II College",
"home_team_public_id": "5U7xNhoHOjTjZ6",
"home_team_slug": "juan-pablo-ii-college",
"ht.home_team_slug": "juan-pablo-ii-college",
"league_country": "Peru",
"league_country_display": "Peru",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Per\u00fa",
"league_id": 281,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/281.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Per\u00fa",
"league_public_id": "0rqkJd8vbYLXJ1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 20:30:00",
"public_id": "4Fx3xn5Me9sgnU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Chongoyape",
"venue_name": "Estadio Complejo Juan Pablo II"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1518,
"best_odd": 4.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0244,
"ev": 0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2268,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.5102
},
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"p_final": 0.2511
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2971,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2268,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.5102
},
"model_prob": 0.2693,
"p_final": 0.2649
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4498,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0751,
"ev": -0.1993,
"implied_prob": 0.5102,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2268,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.5102
},
"model_prob": 0.3434,
"p_final": 0.4352
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.14,
"edge": 0.1457,
"ev": 0.6034,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"model_prob": 0.3873
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.2693
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.2001,
"ev": -0.3682,
"implied_prob": 0.5435,
"model_prob": 0.3434
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1918,
"alpha_yes": 0.211,
"best_no_odd": 1.96,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1013,
"edge_yes": 0.1013,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.263,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1117,
"ev_yes": 0.1232,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0384,
"implied_no": 0.4773,
"implied_yes": 0.5227,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1918,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.4744,
"model_prob": 0.376,
"p_final": 0.4555
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.5256,
"model_prob": 0.624,
"p_final": 0.5464
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4555,
"p_final_yes": 0.5464,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2255,
"alpha_under": 0.205,
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.01,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.77,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.97,
"edge_over": 0.0589,
"edge_under": -0.0589,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0607,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.044,
"ev_under": -0.1679,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0916,
"implied_over": 0.5271,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5267,
"implied_under": 0.4729,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4733,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2255,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.5401
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.4611
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5401,
"p_final_under": 0.4611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.04,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1232,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6034,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1232,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1232,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6034,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UCV Moquegua at 38.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UCV Moquegua as the value side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UCV Moquegua",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side UCV Moquegua \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549497 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UCV Moquegua, but the model still strongly favours UCV Moquegua.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0398,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.624,
"draw_prob": 0.2693,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3873,
"over_prob": 0.586,
"total_xg": 3.04,
"under_prob": 0.414,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0244,
"ev": 0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "UCV Moquegua"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.5256,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.624,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1918,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.4744,
"model_prob": 0.376,
"p_final": 0.4555
},
"p_final": 0.5464,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0384,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.5256,
"model_prob": 0.624,
"p_final": 0.5464
}
},
"edge": 0.1013,
"ev": 0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.5227,
"model_prob": 0.624,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2255,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0134,
"market_prob": 0.5267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2255,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.5401
},
"p_final": 0.5401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.044,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.0121,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.4611
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0589,
"ev": 0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.5271,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549497,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1232,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3873,
"draw": 0.2693,
"home": 0.3434
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "UCV Moquegua",
"home": "Juan Pablo II College"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088408,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1232,
"implied_prob": 0.5227,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.624,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0398,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549497,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T20:29:06.513927+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Perú — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 49 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 35 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 13 | Atlético Grau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 27 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 38 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 46 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 26 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 40 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 44 | 18 | +26 | 56 |
| 5 | Universitario | 27 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 49 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 27 |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 40 |
| 9 | Cusco FC | 27 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 45 |
| 10 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 39 | 24 | +15 | 48 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 35 |
| 12 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 41 |
| 14 | UTC | 27 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 15 |
| 15 | Sport Boys | 27 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 38 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 |
| 17 | Atlético Grau | 27 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 25 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 2.3 | 0.0 | +2.3 | 56 |
| 2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 2.3 | 1.4 | +0.9 | 48 |
| 3 | Cusco FC | 27 | 1.4 | 2.3 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 4 | UTC | 27 | 0.0 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 15 |
| 5 | Universitario | 27 | — | — | — | 49 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 27 | — | — | — | 46 |
| 7 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | — | — | — | 41 |
| 8 | Cienciano | 26 | — | — | — | 40 |
| 9 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | — | — | — | 40 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | — | — | — | 38 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 27 | — | — | — | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | — | — | — | 35 |
| 13 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | — | — | — | 34 |
| 14 | Atlético Grau | 27 | — | — | — | 32 |
| 15 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 17 | ADT | 27 | — | — | — | 25 |
| 18 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | — | — | — | 25 |
