AI correctly predicted the Sport Huancayo win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 35.2% | 45.2% | -10.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.9% | +0.0 pp | Aligned |
| Sport Huancayo | 37.8% | 27.8% | +10.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Comerciantes Unidos's win probability at 45.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Sport Huancayo win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Comerciantes Unidos than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sport Huancayo higher (47.8% vs model 37.8%, 10.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sport Huancayo win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 19:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 35.2% · Draw 26.9% · Sport Huancayo 37.9%
- xG · Comerciantes Unidos 1.49 — Sport Huancayo 1.55
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Comerciantes Unidos 2.05 · Draw 3.44 · Sport Huancayo 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 45.2% · Draw 26.9% · Sport Huancayo 27.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Comerciantes Unidos 2.05 · Draw 3.44 · Sport Huancayo 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes Unidos 45.2% · Draw 26.9% · Sport Huancayo 27.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sport Huancayo win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.05
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sport Huancayo win · Comerciantes Unidos 0–1 Sport Huancayo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +34.6%",
"alert_team": "Sport Huancayo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.0,
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"show": true,
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"status_key": "caution",
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"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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}
],
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"summary": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1603,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sport Huancayo at 37.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sport Huancayo as the value side (37.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sport Huancayo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sport Huancayo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549485 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.012,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3786,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3003003003003003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2607,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 14.8,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6428571428571429,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.4,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.02,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.02,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.55,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.49,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.55,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.49 \u00b7 Away xG 1.55 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +15%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +34.6%",
"steam_team": "Sport Huancayo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1603,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sport Huancayo at 37.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sport Huancayo as the value side (37.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sport Huancayo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sport Huancayo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549485 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.012,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3786,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3003003003003003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2607,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 14.8,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Comerciantes Unidos 1.49 xG vs Sport Huancayo 1.55 \u2192 Sport Huancayo 37.8%",
"Market: Comerciantes Unidos ~27.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Sport Huancayo odds \u2191 +34.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sport Huancayo, but the market has moved away from Sport Huancayo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.02,
"fair_prob": 35.2,
"label": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"market_prob": 45.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.03,
"fair_prob": 26.98,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.98,
"fair_prob": 37.82,
"label": "Sport Huancayo",
"market_prob": 27.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.21,
"fair_prob": 58.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.21,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.23,
"fair_prob": 62.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.23,
"fair_prob": 37.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.2,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"market_prob_pct": 45.22,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sport Huancayo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Comerciantes Unidos\u0027s win probability at 45.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.02,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sport Huancayo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.0,
"model_prob_pct": 37.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Comerciantes Unidos 1.49 xG vs Sport Huancayo 1.55 \u2192 Sport Huancayo 37.8%",
"Market: Comerciantes Unidos ~27.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Sport Huancayo odds \u2191 +34.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sport Huancayo, but the market has moved away from Sport Huancayo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.02,
"hero_label": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sport Huancayo odds lengthened \u2191 +34.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sport Huancayo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Comerciantes Unidos than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Sport Huancayo \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Comerciantes Unidos than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Sport Huancayo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sport Huancayo \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Comerciantes Unidos more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Sport Huancayo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.6%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.02,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.6 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.6,
"max_prob_pct": 37.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Comerciantes Unidos higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.02,
"edge_pp": -10.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.2,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"market_prob_pct": 45.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.03,
"edge_pp": 0.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.98,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.98,
"edge_pp": 9.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sport Huancayo",
"market_prob_pct": 27.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sport Huancayo \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Comerciantes Unidos (27.8%).",
"However, Sport Huancayo has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +34.6%, 9/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sport Huancayo, Market \u2192 Comerciantes Unidos, while Sport Huancayo odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
"closing_odds": 2.05,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
"entry_odds": 2.05,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +34.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 34.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Sport Huancayo (34.6%, 9/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.05",
"2.60"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 2.60 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 53m",
"pick_team": "Sport Huancayo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.6,
3.33,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.6,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/14 sportsbooks on Sport Huancayo",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Sport Huancayo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.6%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"summary": "Market moved away from Sport Huancayo while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sport Huancayo",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.6%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Sport Huancayo",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Sport Huancayo",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sport-huancayo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Sport Huancayo",
"away_team_id": 2555,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2555.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sport Huancayo",
"away_team_public_id": "1SbivbfHKGBQcB",
"away_team_slug": "sport-huancayo",
"country_code": "PE",
"country_display_name": "Peru",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pe.svg",
"country_id": 126,
"country_name": "Peru",
"fixture_id": 1549485,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Peru",
"home_team_display_name": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"home_team_id": 2558,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2558.webp",
"home_team_name": "Comerciantes Unidos",
"home_team_public_id": "2MKLZKaommd9P7",
"home_team_slug": "comerciantes-unidos",
"ht.home_team_slug": "comerciantes-unidos",
"league_country": "Peru",
"league_country_display": "Peru",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Per\u00fa",
"league_id": 281,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/281.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Per\u00fa",
"league_public_id": "0rqkJd8vbYLXJ1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:00:00",
"public_id": "4CEuoxkXlQ6V4N",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Cutervo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2549,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0256,
"ev": 0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2784,
"draw": 0.2695,
"home": 0.4522
},
"model_prob": 0.3786,
"p_final": 0.3039
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2784,
"draw": 0.2695,
"home": 0.4522
},
"model_prob": 0.2694,
"p_final": 0.2695
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3824,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0383,
"ev": -0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.4522,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2784,
"draw": 0.2695,
"home": 0.4522
},
"model_prob": 0.352,
"p_final": 0.4139
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": 0.0783,
"ev": 0.2608,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.3786
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.2694
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.1358,
"ev": -0.2785,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.352
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2081,
"alpha_yes": 0.2289,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.76,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0823,
"edge_yes": 0.0823,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2313,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1089,
"ev_yes": 0.1,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0444,
"implied_no": 0.4573,
"implied_yes": 0.5427,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2081,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0444,
"implied_prob": 0.5456,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.5638
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4379,
"p_final_yes": 0.5638,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2043,
"alpha_under": 0.2043,
"best_over_odd": 1.98,
"best_under_odd": 1.93,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.88,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": 0.0921,
"edge_under": -0.0921,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1603,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.033,
"ev_under": -0.201,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1016,
"implied_over": 0.4939,
"implied_over_mf": 0.496,
"implied_under": 0.5061,
"implied_under_mf": 0.504,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.5144
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.504,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.4856
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5144,
"p_final_under": 0.4856,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.04,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1603,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2608,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1603,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1603,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sport Huancayo at 37.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sport Huancayo as the value side (37.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sport Huancayo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sport Huancayo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549485 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sport Huancayo, but the model still strongly favours Sport Huancayo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.012,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3786,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3003003003003003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2607,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 14.8,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.625,
"draw_prob": 0.2694,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3786,
"over_prob": 0.586,
"total_xg": 3.04,
"under_prob": 0.414,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0256,
"ev": 0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3786,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sport Huancayo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.695,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.5456,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.625,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2081,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.4379
},
"p_final": 0.5638,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0444,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0444,
"implied_prob": 0.5456,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.5638
}
},
"edge": 0.0823,
"ev": 0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.5427,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.496,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.5144
},
"p_final": 0.5144,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.033,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.504,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.4856
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0921,
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.4939,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549485,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1603,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3786,
"draw": 0.2694,
"home": 0.352
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.5427,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.625,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.5427,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.625,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sport Huancayo",
"home": "Comerciantes Unidos"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.11742,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.4939,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.012,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3786,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3003003003003003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2607,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549485,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T19:56:53.518545+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Perú — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 49 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 35 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 13 | Atlético Grau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 27 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 38 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 46 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 26 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 40 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 44 | 18 | +26 | 56 |
| 5 | Universitario | 27 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 49 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 27 |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 40 |
| 9 | Cusco FC | 27 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 45 |
| 10 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 39 | 24 | +15 | 48 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 35 |
| 12 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 41 |
| 14 | UTC | 27 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 15 |
| 15 | Sport Boys | 27 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 38 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 |
| 17 | Atlético Grau | 27 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 25 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 2.3 | 0.0 | +2.3 | 56 |
| 2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 2.3 | 1.4 | +0.9 | 48 |
| 3 | Cusco FC | 27 | 1.4 | 2.3 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 4 | UTC | 27 | 0.0 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 15 |
| 5 | Universitario | 27 | — | — | — | 49 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 27 | — | — | — | 46 |
| 7 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 26 | — | — | — | 41 |
| 8 | Cienciano | 26 | — | — | — | 40 |
| 9 | Alianza Atlético | 27 | — | — | — | 40 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | — | — | — | 38 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 27 | — | — | — | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | — | — | — | 35 |
| 13 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | — | — | — | 34 |
| 14 | Atlético Grau | 27 | — | — | — | 32 |
| 15 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 17 | ADT | 27 | — | — | — | 25 |
| 18 | UCV Moquegua | 27 | — | — | — | 25 |
