AI correctly predicted the Slaven Belupo win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slaven Belupo | 35.4% | 36.7% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Lokomotiva Zagreb | 35.1% | 37.1% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Slaven Belupo win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Slaven Belupo win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:41 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Slaven Belupo 35.3% · Draw 29.6% · Lokomotiva Zagreb 35.1%
- xG · Slaven Belupo 1.22 — Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.21
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Slaven Belupo 2.60 · Draw 3.63 · Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.57
- Implied 1X2 · Slaven Belupo 36.7% · Draw 26.3% · Lokomotiva Zagreb 37.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Slaven Belupo 2.60 · Draw 3.63 · Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.57
- Implied 1X2 · Slaven Belupo 36.7% · Draw 26.3% · Lokomotiva Zagreb 37.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Slaven Belupo win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
29/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Slaven Belupo win · Slaven Belupo 2–1 Lokomotiva Zagreb
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_label": "Normal",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"alert_team": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.3,
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Slaven Belupo at 35.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Slaven Belupo as the value side (35.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slaven Belupo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0621,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3533,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0814,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.01 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3076923076923077,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.29,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.29,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.22,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"steam_team": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2533,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2533,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Slaven Belupo at 35.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Slaven Belupo as the value side (35.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slaven Belupo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0621,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3533,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0814,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.01 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Slaven Belupo 1.22 xG vs Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.21 \u2192 Slaven Belupo 35.4%",
"Market: Lokomotiva Zagreb ~36.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Lokomotiva Zagreb \u2193 -3.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Slaven Belupo, but sharp money moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.31,
"fair_prob": 35.35,
"label": "Slaven Belupo",
"market_prob": 36.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.29,
"fair_prob": 29.55,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.99,
"fair_prob": 35.1,
"label": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"market_prob": 37.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.44,
"fair_prob": 43.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.44,
"fair_prob": 56.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.77,
"fair_prob": 51.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.77,
"fair_prob": 48.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.55,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.26,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Lokomotiva Zagreb"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Slaven Belupo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Slaven Belupo 1.22 xG vs Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.21 \u2192 Slaven Belupo 35.4%",
"Market: Lokomotiva Zagreb ~36.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Lokomotiva Zagreb \u2193 -3.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Slaven Belupo, but sharp money moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.29,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Lokomotiva Zagreb odds shortened \u2193 -3.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Lokomotiva Zagreb, with odds shortening by 3.9%. Confirmation remains limited (4/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Lokomotiva Zagreb, with odds shortening by 3.9%. Confirmation remains limited (4/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Lokomotiva Zagreb has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.9%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.2 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.2,
"max_prob_pct": 35.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.31,
"edge_pp": -1.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Slaven Belupo",
"market_prob_pct": 36.66,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.29,
"edge_pp": 3.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.55,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.99,
"edge_pp": -1.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.1,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"market_prob_pct": 37.09,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lokomotiva Zagreb (36.7%).",
"Lokomotiva Zagreb has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.9%, 4/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Slaven Belupo, Market \u2192 Lokomotiva Zagreb, Recent sharp money \u2192 Lokomotiva Zagreb.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.55,
"closing_odds": 3.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.55,
"entry_odds": 3.63,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.9
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "4/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 67h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Lokomotiva Zagreb (swing 2.65 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.45) \u2014 net 3.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.57",
"2.51",
"2.45"
],
"display": "2.65 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 67h 54m",
"pick_team": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
2.57,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.57"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Market moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/13",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_team_name": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"away_team_id": 1017,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1017.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"away_team_public_id": "4EHsSJ8R5mysl4",
"away_team_slug": "nk-lokomotiva-zagreb",
"country_code": "HR",
"country_display_name": "Croatia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_id": 39,
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1548525,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Croatia",
"home_team_display_name": "Slaven Belupo",
"home_team_id": 1018,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1018.webp",
"home_team_name": "Slaven Belupo",
"home_team_public_id": "4wGT5ZrKzStw9D",
"home_team_slug": "nk-slaven-belupo",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_country_display": "Croatia",
"league_display_name": "HNL de Croacia",
"league_id": 210,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
"league_name": "HNL de Croacia",
"league_public_id": "2P2flO0qVah0S2",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 19:00:00",
"public_id": "59gPRP4amtZlLB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Koprivnica",
"venue_name": "Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4365,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.0693,
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3709,
"draw": 0.2626,
"home": 0.3666
},
"model_prob": 0.3508,
"p_final": 0.3621
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.285,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.2626,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3709,
"draw": 0.2626,
"home": 0.3666
},
"model_prob": 0.2958,
"p_final": 0.272
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4411,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3709,
"draw": 0.2626,
"home": 0.3666
},
"model_prob": 0.3533,
"p_final": 0.3607
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0383,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.3508
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": 0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2958
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3533
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3856,
"alpha_yes": 0.5302,
"best_no_odd": 2.42,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0877,
"edge_yes": -0.0877,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1834,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0111,
"ev_yes": -0.1977,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1525,
"implied_no": 0.4013,
"implied_yes": 0.5987,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3856,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"p_final": 0.4376
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5302,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0444,
"ev": -0.1525,
"implied_prob": 0.5947,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"p_final": 0.5503
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.4376,
"p_final_yes": 0.5503,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4967,
"alpha_under": 0.4515,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.23,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.675,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.1244,
"edge_under": 0.1244,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2554,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1646,
"ev_under": 0.2533,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0512,
"implied_over": 0.5624,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5586,
"implied_under": 0.4376,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4414,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4967,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0599,
"ev": -0.1646,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.438,
"p_final": 0.4987
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4515,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0545,
"ev": 0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.562,
"p_final": 0.4958
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4987,
"p_final_under": 0.4958,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.43,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2533,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2533,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2533,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2533,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2533,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Slaven Belupo at 35.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Slaven Belupo as the value side (35.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Slaven Belupo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the model still strongly favours Slaven Belupo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
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"tier": "observe",
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"value_context": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
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"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.511,
"draw_prob": 0.2958,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3533,
"over_prob": 0.438,
"total_xg": 2.43,
"under_prob": 0.562,
"xg_diff": 0.01
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3533,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Slaven Belupo"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0323,
"market_prob": 0.4053,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.489,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
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"p_final": 0.4376
},
"p_final": 0.4376,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0111,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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}
},
"edge": 0.0877,
"ev": 0.1834,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0545,
"market_prob": 0.4414,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4958,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0512,
"under": {
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},
"edge": 0.1244,
"ev": 0.2533,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1548525,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2533,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2958,
"home": 0.3533
},
"reason_codes": [
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"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.2533,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.562,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.562,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lokomotiva Zagreb",
"home": "Slaven Belupo"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1834,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0621,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3533,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.3,
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.0814,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1548525,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T19:41:52.874969+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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HNL de Croacia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Osijek | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Slaven Belupo | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Rudeš | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 |
| 2 | Osijek | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 3 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Varazdin | 8 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Rudeš | 8 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 4 |
| 9 | Slaven Belupo | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 10.2 | 3.5 | +6.7 | 16 |
| 2 | Varazdin | 8 | 9.8 | 5.1 | +4.7 | 15 |
| 3 | Osijek | 8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | +3.9 | 16 |
| 4 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 5 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 9.4 | 7.2 | +2.2 | 9 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | 6.9 | 4.7 | +2.2 | 14 |
| 7 | HNK Gorica | 8 | 6.0 | 9.1 | -3.1 | 5 |
| 8 | Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 7.8 | 12.7 | -4.9 | 7 |
| 9 | Slaven Belupo | 8 | 6.9 | 12.7 | -5.8 | 7 |
| 10 | Rudeš | 8 | 3.8 | 13.4 | -9.6 | 4 |
