AI correctly predicted the Sudan win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sudan Sudan ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 37.1% | 51.2% | -14.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.9% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Etiopía | 33.3% | 20.0% | +13.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Sudan's win probability at 51.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Sudan win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Sudan than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sudan higher (51.2% vs model 37.1%, 14.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sudan win 1–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sudan 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Etiopía 33.4%
- xG · Sudan 1.34 — Etiopía 1.26
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sudan 1.79 · Draw 3.24 · Etiopía 4.72
- Implied 1X2 · Sudan 51.8% · Draw 28.6% · Etiopía 19.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sudan 1.81 · Draw 3.21 · Etiopía 4.64
- Implied 1X2 · Sudan 51.2% · Draw 28.9% · Etiopía 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sudan win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
29/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sudan win · Sudan 1–0 Etiopía
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.1946,
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},
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},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.1,
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"hero_edge_pp": -14.12,
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"market_prob_pct": 51.2,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sudan at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sudan as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sudan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sudan \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.84 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.84 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1946,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5118,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3294,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.12,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5473,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sudan at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sudan as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sudan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sudan \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.84 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.84 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1946,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5118,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3294,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sudan 1.34 xG vs Etiop\u00eda 1.26 \u2192 Sudan 37.1%",
"Market: Sudan ~51.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sudan with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.12,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Sudan",
"market_prob": 51.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.35,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Etiop\u00eda",
"market_prob": 19.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.93,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.93,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sudan",
"market_prob_pct": 51.18,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sudan\u0027s win probability at 51.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sudan",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Sudan \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sudan 1.34 xG vs Etiop\u00eda 1.26 \u2192 Sudan 37.1%",
"Market: Sudan ~51.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sudan with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.12,
"hero_label": "Sudan",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sudan than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Sudan than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Sudan more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Sudan",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sudan higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.12,
"edge_pp": -14.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sudan",
"market_prob_pct": 51.18,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.77,
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.86,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.35,
"edge_pp": 13.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Etiop\u00eda",
"market_prob_pct": 19.96,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sudan (51.2%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.3%, 4/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Sudan \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.25,
"closing_odds": 1.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.25,
"entry_odds": 1.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.30 \u2192 2.85 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 3.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.24",
"3.12",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.85 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 2m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.21,
3.24,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,2.3 37.3,0.0 56.0,10.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.24"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ethiopia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Etiop\u00eda",
"away_team_id": 1506,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1506.webp",
"away_team_name": "Etiop\u00eda",
"away_team_public_id": "1YpZK8LLT9qeiB",
"away_team_slug": "ethiopia",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1545834,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sudan",
"home_team_display_name": "Sudan",
"home_team_id": 1510,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1510.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sudan",
"home_team_public_id": "4F1GpexuPQqf5T",
"home_team_slug": "sudan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sudan",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Clasificaci\u00f3n para la Copa Africana de Naciones",
"league_id": 36,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/36.webp",
"league_name": "Clasificaci\u00f3n para la Copa Africana de Naciones",
"league_public_id": "4NBRtBLCnaegxZ",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2QQmZwdslAWz5L",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1598,
"best_odd": 4.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": 0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.1996,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1996,
"draw": 0.2886,
"home": 0.5118
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.221
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2967,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.2886,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1996,
"draw": 0.2886,
"home": 0.5118
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2908
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4729,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0668,
"ev": -0.1946,
"implied_prob": 0.5118,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1996,
"draw": 0.2886,
"home": 0.5118
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.445
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.64,
"edge": 0.118,
"ev": 0.5473,
"implied_prob": 0.2155,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.21,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.182,
"ev": -0.3293,
"implied_prob": 0.5525,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2047,
"alpha_yes": 0.1861,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1193,
"edge_yes": 0.1193,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1144,
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.03,
"implied_no": 0.5743,
"implied_yes": 0.4257,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5467
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1861,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.03,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4512
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5467,
"p_final_yes": 0.4512,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1553,
"alpha_under": 0.2135,
"best_over_odd": 2.42,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.525,
"edge_over": 0.092,
"edge_under": -0.092,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1664,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0367,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1003,
"implied_over": 0.39,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3905,
"implied_under": 0.61,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6095,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1553,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.3905,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4047
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.6095,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5899
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4047,
"p_final_under": 0.5899,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5473,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2263,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5473,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sudan at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sudan as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sudan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sudan \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.84 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.84 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sudan).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1946,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5118,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3294,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.1996,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Etiop\u00eda",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0668,
"ev": -0.1946,
"implied_prob": 0.5118,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sudan"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1861,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0215,
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5467
},
"p_final": 0.4512,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.03,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1861,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.03,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4512
}
},
"edge": 0.1193,
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4257,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1553,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0142,
"market_prob": 0.3905,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1553,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.3905,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4047
},
"p_final": 0.4047,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0367,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.6095,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5899
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.092,
"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1545834,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2263,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Etiop\u00eda",
"home": "Sudan"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.123334,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4257,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1946,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5118,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3294,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1545834,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T12:59:42.389216+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Mundo. Clasificación para la Copa Africana de Naciones Predicciones
