AI correctly predicted the Niger win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Niger Niger ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niger | 42.4% | 53.4% | -11.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.6% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Lesotho | 28.4% | 18.0% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Niger's win probability at 53.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Niger win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Niger than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Niger higher (53.4% vs model 42.4%, 11.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Niger win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Niger 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Lesotho 28.4%
- xG · Niger 1.45 — Lesotho 1.15
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Niger 1.74 · Draw 3.24 · Lesotho 5.16
- Implied 1X2 · Niger 53.4% · Draw 28.6% · Lesotho 18.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Niger 1.74 · Draw 3.24 · Lesotho 5.16
- Implied 1X2 · Niger 53.4% · Draw 28.6% · Lesotho 18.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Niger win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
45/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Niger win · Niger 2–1 Lesotho
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
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{
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"alert_team": "Lesotho",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.98,
"hero_label": "Niger",
"market_prob_pct": 53.4,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1319,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4656,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Niger at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Niger as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Niger",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Niger \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.72 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545828 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.72 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1675,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.98,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.45,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"steam_team": "Lesotho",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1319,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4656,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Niger at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Niger as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Niger",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Niger \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.72 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545828 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.72 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1675,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Niger 1.45 xG vs Lesotho 1.15 \u2192 Niger 42.4%",
"Market: Niger ~53.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Lesotho \u2193 -13.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Niger, but sharp money moved toward Lesotho.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.98,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Niger",
"market_prob": 53.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.61,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Lesotho",
"market_prob": 17.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.76,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.76,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.28,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.28,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Niger",
"market_prob_pct": 53.35,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lesotho"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Niger\u0027s win probability at 53.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Niger",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.0,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Niger 1.45 xG vs Lesotho 1.15 \u2192 Niger 42.4%",
"Market: Niger ~53.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Lesotho \u2193 -13.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Niger, but sharp money moved toward Lesotho.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.98,
"hero_label": "Niger",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Lesotho odds shortened \u2193 -13.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Lesotho, with odds shortening by 13.4%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Niger than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Lesotho \u2014 odds shortened by 13.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Niger than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Lesotho, with odds shortening by 13.4%.",
"Buying interest on Lesotho \u2014 odds shortened by 13.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Niger more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Lesotho has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.4%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Lesotho."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Niger",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Niger higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.98,
"edge_pp": -10.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Niger",
"market_prob_pct": 53.35,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.61,
"edge_pp": 0.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.38,
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lesotho",
"market_prob_pct": 17.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Lesotho \u2014 odds shortened by 13.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Niger (53.4%).",
"However, Lesotho has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.4%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Niger, Market \u2192 Niger, Recent sharp money \u2192 Lesotho.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"closing_odds": 1.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.47,
"entry_odds": 1.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -31.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -31.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Lesotho (13.4%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.16",
"4.75",
"4.33"
],
"display": "7.24 \u2192 4.05 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 2m",
"pick_team": "Lesotho",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.24"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
5.16,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.5 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.16"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Lesotho \u2193 -13.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Lesotho",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Lesotho \u2193 -13.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Lesotho while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lesotho",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Lesotho",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_team_name": "Lesotho",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lesotho",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lesotho",
"away_team_id": 1518,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1518.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lesotho",
"away_team_public_id": "4VNwz2rfadqGE1",
"away_team_slug": "lesotho",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1545828,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Niger",
"home_team_display_name": "Niger",
"home_team_id": 1505,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1505.webp",
"home_team_name": "Niger",
"home_team_public_id": "5DCsDypTNi7ZE4",
"home_team_slug": "niger",
"ht.home_team_slug": "niger",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Clasificaci\u00f3n para la Copa Africana de Naciones",
"league_id": 36,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/36.webp",
"league_name": "Clasificaci\u00f3n para la Copa Africana de Naciones",
"league_public_id": "4NBRtBLCnaegxZ",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 15:00:00",
"public_id": "1mCz0RRQiiz3Xw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Accra",
"venue_name": "Ohene Djan Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1688,
"best_odd": 5.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": 0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.1799,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1799,
"draw": 0.2865,
"home": 0.5335
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.1975
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2974,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.066,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1799,
"draw": 0.2865,
"home": 0.5335
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2883
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5011,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0551,
"ev": -0.1675,
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1799,
"draw": 0.2865,
"home": 0.5335
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.4785
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.16,
"edge": 0.0902,
"ev": 0.4656,
"implied_prob": 0.1938,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.0528,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.1511,
"ev": -0.2629,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.4236
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.222,
"alpha_yes": 0.2018,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0728,
"edge_yes": 0.0728,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1932,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1048,
"ev_yes": 0.1319,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0511,
"implied_no": 0.5338,
"implied_yes": 0.4662,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1048,
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5145
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4841
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5145,
"p_final_yes": 0.4841,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2155,
"alpha_under": 0.237,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.695,
"edge_over": 0.0276,
"edge_under": -0.0276,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0618,
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0855,
"implied_over": 0.4544,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4538,
"implied_under": 0.5456,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5462,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.4538,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4599
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0855,
"implied_prob": 0.5462,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5395
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4599,
"p_final_under": 0.5395,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1319,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4656,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1319,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1319,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4656,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Niger at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Niger as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Niger",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Niger \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.72 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545828 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.72 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lesotho, but the model still strongly favours Niger.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1675,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0551,
"ev": -0.1675,
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Niger"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.4703,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1048,
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5145
},
"p_final": 0.4841,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4841
}
},
"edge": 0.0728,
"ev": 0.1319,
"implied_prob": 0.4662,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0061,
"market_prob": 0.4538,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2155,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.4538,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4599
},
"p_final": 0.4599,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0618,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0855,
"implied_prob": 0.5462,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5395
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1545828,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1319,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.4236
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lesotho",
"home": "Niger"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.071094,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1319,
"implied_prob": 0.4662,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1675,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1545828,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T14:59:16.176844+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Mundo. Clasificación para la Copa Africana de Naciones Predicciones
