The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Independiente Petrolero at 49.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Independiente Petrolero Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Independiente Petrolero; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 04, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Independiente Petrolero 1.94 — Aurora 1.39
-
Aug 04, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Independiente Petrolero 1–1 Aurora
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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},
"over_under": {
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"total_expected": 3.33,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 34.0,
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-04 21:59:02",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-04 21:29:02",
"has_data": true,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"most_likely": {
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}
},
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"edge": 12.0,
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"probability": 49.1
},
"market_cards": [
{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0619,
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},
{
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{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"alert_team": "Independiente Petrolero",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 15.59,
"hero_label": "Independiente Petrolero",
"market_prob_pct": 33.5,
"market_team": "Aurora",
"model_prob_pct": 49.1,
"model_team": "Independiente Petrolero",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Independiente Petrolero at 49.1% vs market 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Independiente Petrolero as the stronger side (49.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Petrolero",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Independiente Petrolero \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545399 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4907,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.59,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.94,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.94,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.94 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"steam_team": "Independiente Petrolero",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Independiente Petrolero at 49.1% vs market 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Independiente Petrolero as the stronger side (49.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Petrolero",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Independiente Petrolero \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545399 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4907,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Independiente Petrolero 1.94 xG vs Aurora 1.39 \u2192 Independiente Petrolero 49.1%",
"Market: Aurora ~33.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Petrolero odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente Petrolero, but the market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 15.59,
"fair_prob": 49.13,
"label": "Independiente Petrolero",
"market_prob": 33.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.1,
"fair_prob": 24.56,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.5,
"fair_prob": 26.3,
"label": "Aurora",
"market_prob": 38.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 64.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 65.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 34.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 15.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.13,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Independiente Petrolero",
"market_prob_pct": 33.54,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Petrolero"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Independiente Petrolero\u0027s win probability at 49.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 33.5%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 15.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Independiente Petrolero",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.6,
"model_prob_pct": 49.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Independiente Petrolero 1.94 xG vs Aurora 1.39 \u2192 Independiente Petrolero 49.1%",
"Market: Aurora ~33.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Petrolero odds \u2191 +10.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente Petrolero, but the market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 15.59,
"hero_label": "Independiente Petrolero",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Independiente Petrolero odds lengthened \u2191 +10.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Independiente Petrolero.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Independiente Petrolero.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Independiente Petrolero.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Independiente Petrolero."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Independiente Petrolero more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Independiente Petrolero (\u2191 +10.7%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.8 pp (at 49.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 22.8,
"max_prob_pct": 49.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Independiente Petrolero",
"largest_gap_pp": 15.6,
"lead": "The model rates Independiente Petrolero considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 15.59,
"edge_pp": 15.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.13,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Independiente Petrolero",
"market_prob_pct": 33.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.1,
"edge_pp": -3.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.56,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.5,
"edge_pp": -12.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.3,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Aurora",
"market_prob_pct": 38.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Independiente Petrolero.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Aurora (33.5%).",
"Independiente Petrolero odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.7%, 8/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Independiente Petrolero, Market \u2192 Aurora, while Independiente Petrolero odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.63,
"closing_odds": 2.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.63,
"entry_odds": 2.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 14m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Independiente Petrolero (10.7%, 8/12) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.90",
"2.76",
"2.62"
],
"display": "2.90 \u2192 2.49 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 14m",
"pick_team": "Independiente Petrolero",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
2.73,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,10.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/12 sportsbooks on Independiente Petrolero",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Independiente Petrolero",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Market moved away from Independiente Petrolero while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Independiente Petrolero",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Independiente Petrolero",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Petrolero",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Aurora",
"away_team_id": 3637,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3637.webp",
"away_team_name": "Aurora",
"away_team_slug": "aurora",
"country_code": "BO",
"country_display_name": "Bolivia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bo.svg",
"country_id": 21,
"country_name": "Bolivia",
"fixture_id": 1545399,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bolivia",
"home_team_display_name": "Independiente Petrolero",
"home_team_id": 15702,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15702.webp",
"home_team_name": "Independiente Petrolero",
"home_team_slug": "independiente-petrolero",
"league_country": "Bolivia",
"league_country_display": "Bolivia",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Bolivia",
"league_id": 344,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/344.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Bolivia",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-04 22:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sucre",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3659,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0456,
"ev": -0.1919,
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.388,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3354
},
"model_prob": 0.2634,
"p_final": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2862,
"best_odd": 3.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.2766,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.388,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3354
},
"model_prob": 0.2459,
"p_final": 0.2678
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3452,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0536,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.388,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3354
},
"model_prob": 0.4907,
"p_final": 0.389
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.1603,
"ev": -0.3784,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.2634
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.31,
"edge": -0.0562,
"ev": -0.186,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"model_prob": 0.2459
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": 0.1244,
"ev": 0.3395,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.4907
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.33,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3395,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Independiente Petrolero at 49.1% vs market 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Independiente Petrolero as the stronger side (49.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Petrolero",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Independiente Petrolero \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1545399 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente Petrolero, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Petrolero.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4907,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.656,
"draw_prob": 0.2459,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4907,
"over_prob": 0.647,
"total_xg": 3.33,
"under_prob": 0.353,
"xg_diff": 0.55
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0536,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4907,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Independiente Petrolero"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.656,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.647,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1545399,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2634,
"draw": 0.2459,
"home": 0.4907
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Aurora",
"home": "Independiente Petrolero"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.024299,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4907,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Independiente Petrolero",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4907,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1545399,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-04T21:59:07.158588+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Bolivia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 45 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 42 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | Aurora | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 30 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Blooming | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 |
| 9 | Nacional Potosí | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Independiente Petrolero | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 25 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 12 | ABB | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 13 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 14 | Universitario de Vinto | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 15 | Real Tomayapo | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| 16 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 20 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 20 | 54 | 22 | +32 | 45 |
| 2 | Always Ready | 20 | 47 | 13 | +34 | 45 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 20 | 39 | 22 | +17 | 42 |
| 4 | Oriente Petrolero | 20 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 30 |
| 5 | Guabirá | 20 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Oruro | 20 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 21 |
| 7 | Aurora | 20 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 30 |
| 8 | ABB | 20 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 20 |
| 9 | Blooming | 20 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 27 |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí | 20 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 27 |
| 11 | Real Potosí | 20 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 32 |
| 12 | Independiente Petrolero | 20 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 25 |
| 13 | Universitario de Vinto | 20 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 18 |
| 14 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 20 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 14 |
| 15 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 20 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 20 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 20 | 15 | 39 | -24 | 16 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 20 | 1.6 | 1.4 | +0.2 | 45 |
| 2 | Real Potosí | 20 | 1.4 | 1.6 | -0.2 | 32 |
| 3 | Always Ready | 20 | — | — | — | 45 |
| 4 | The Strongest | 20 | — | — | — | 42 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 20 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 6 | Aurora | 20 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 20 | — | — | — | 29 |
| 8 | Blooming | 20 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 9 | Nacional Potosí | 20 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 10 | Independiente Petrolero | 20 | — | — | — | 25 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 20 | — | — | — | 21 |
| 12 | ABB | 20 | — | — | — | 20 |
| 13 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 20 | — | — | — | 20 |
| 14 | Universitario de Vinto | 20 | — | — | — | 18 |
| 15 | Real Tomayapo | 20 | — | — | — | 16 |
| 16 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 20 | — | — | — | 14 |
