The model missed the final outcome (Víkingur Ólafsvík win 4–0).
The model had projected Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir Víkingur Ólafsvík ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Víkingur Ólafsvík | 34.7% | 47.2% | -12.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.6% | +8.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir | 35.6% | 31.2% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Víkingur Ólafsvík's win probability at 47.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Víkingur Ólafsvík win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Víkingur Ólafsvík than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir; match finished Víkingur Ólafsvík
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir by 12.5 percentage points (48.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Víkingur Ólafsvík 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir 35.6%
- xG · Víkingur Ólafsvík 1.29 — Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir 1.31
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Víkingur Ólafsvík 1.92 · Draw 4.20 · Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Víkingur Ólafsvík 47.2% · Draw 21.6% · Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Víkingur Ólafsvík 1.92 · Draw 4.20 · Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Víkingur Ólafsvík 47.2% · Draw 21.6% · Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Víkingur Ólafsvík win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
12/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.92
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Víkingur Ólafsvík win · Víkingur Ólafsvík 4–0 Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4f55e0644b57aafdfc158b19834f71f88b128f03d992d3954ce15d3d141d456d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0435,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3124,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.2,
"market_odds": 2.9,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 10.4,
"prob_edge": 1.1,
"value_pct": 3.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 21,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 21,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk or Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk or Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 24.3,
"implied_prob": 23.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.24,
"draw": 21.57,
"home": 47.19
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:56:58",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:33:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.19,
"gap_pp": -12.46,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.57,
"gap_pp": 8.11,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.24,
"gap_pp": 4.35,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.92,
"early": 1.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.19,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.2,
"early": 4.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.57,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.24,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.5,
"ev": 0.386,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 11.0,
"market_prob": 0.0909,
"market_prob_pct": 9.1,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"edge": 0.0235,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.2241,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 1.17,
"edge": -0.0407,
"ev": -0.1398,
"implied_prob": 0.7759,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7352
},
"p_final": 0.2476,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0979,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.003,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": 0.003,
"implied_prob": 0.2241,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2476
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3734,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -37.3,
"text": "-37.3%"
},
"ev_under": 1.1238,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 112.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.1238,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11161.42,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0169,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.244,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0219,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2608
},
"p_final": 0.2608,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7063,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0219,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.756,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7203
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.7199,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 72.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.9,
"text": "-31.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.7199,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10647.91,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0409,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3124,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0342,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.4,
"text": "-3.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0321,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"sort_key": 1791.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.49,
"hero_label": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"market_team": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011238,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011238,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0409,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3124,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0321,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.49,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011238,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011238,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0409,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3124,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0321,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk 1.29 xG vs Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir 1.31 \u2192 Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir 35.6%",
"Market: V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk ~31.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.49,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"market_prob": 47.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.08,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.4,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"market_prob": 31.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -27.89,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 76.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 27.89,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 23.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.59,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 75.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.59,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 24.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 47.19,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk\u0027s win probability at 47.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk 1.29 xG vs Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir 1.31 \u2192 Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir 35.6%",
"Market: V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk ~31.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.49,
"hero_label": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.49,
"edge_pp": -12.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 47.19,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.08,
"edge_pp": 8.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.4,
"edge_pp": 4.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"market_prob_pct": 31.24,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk (31.2%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.0%, 5/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir, Market \u2192 V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
"closing_odds": 1.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.08,
"entry_odds": 1.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (5.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.20",
"4.10",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.25 \u2192 3.80 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 58m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/7 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fjardabyggd-leiknir",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"away_team_id": 18366,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18366.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"away_team_public_id": "40m4NRkWIELkHE",
"away_team_slug": "fjardabyggd-leiknir",
"country_code": "IS",
"country_display_name": "Iceland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
"country_id": 72,
"country_name": "Iceland",
"fixture_id": 1543484,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iceland",
"home_team_display_name": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"home_team_id": 828,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/828.webp",
"home_team_name": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk",
"home_team_public_id": "26LlIMbmOGjXMG",
"home_team_slug": "vikingur-olafsiik",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vikingur-olafsiik",
"league_country": "Iceland",
"league_country_display": "Iceland",
"league_display_name": "2. Deild",
"league_id": 166,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/166.webp",
"league_name": "2. Deild",
"league_public_id": "1R6KUG6yOOkXz3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5zc3ZUWxeY9S2j",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4206,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.3124,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3124,
"draw": 0.2157,
"home": 0.4719
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3307
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1757,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0342,
"implied_prob": 0.2157,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3124,
"draw": 0.2157,
"home": 0.4719
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.23
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4879,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0608,
"ev": -0.2107,
"implied_prob": 0.4719,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3124,
"draw": 0.2157,
"home": 0.4719
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4111
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": 0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0587,
"ev": 0.2465,
"implied_prob": 0.2381,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.1736,
"ev": -0.3332,
"implied_prob": 0.5208,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1691,
"best_no_odd": 3.78,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2059,
"edge_yes": -0.2059,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.7199,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0219,
"ev_yes": -0.3187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1284,
"implied_no": 0.2491,
"implied_yes": 0.7509,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0219,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2608
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.756,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7203
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.2608,
"p_final_yes": 0.7203,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1384,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.3,
"best_under_odd": 4.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.05,
"edge_over": -0.2789,
"edge_under": 0.2789,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3734,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1398,
"ev_under": 1.1238,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.003,
"implied_over": 0.7609,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7759,
"implied_under": 0.2391,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2241,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 1.17,
"edge": -0.0407,
"ev": -0.1398,
"implied_prob": 0.7759,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7352
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": 0.003,
"implied_prob": 0.2241,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2476
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7352,
"p_final_under": 0.2476,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.1238,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1238,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.1238,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011238,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011238,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0409,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3124,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0321,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.3124,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0169,
"market_prob": 0.244,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0219,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2608
},
"p_final": 0.2608,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0219,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.0357,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.756,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7203
}
},
"edge": 0.2059,
"ev": 0.7199,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.05,
"edge": 0.0235,
"market_prob": 0.2241,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 1.17,
"edge": -0.0407,
"ev": -0.1398,
"implied_prob": 0.7759,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7352
},
"p_final": 0.2476,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.003,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": 0.003,
"implied_prob": 0.2241,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2476
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2789,
"ev": 1.1238,
"implied_prob": 0.2391,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1543484,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.1238,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7199,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7199,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fjar\u00f0abygg\u00f0/Leiknir",
"home": "V\u00edkingur \u00d3lafsv\u00edk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.40749,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.1238,
"implied_prob": 0.2391,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0409,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3124,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0321,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1543484,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:56:59.788442+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Víkingur Ólafsvík & Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
2. Deild — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | Kári | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 42 |
| 4 | Dalvík/Reynir | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 5 | Víkingur Ólafsvík | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 6 | Fjölnir | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 7 | Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 8 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 11 | KFG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 12 | Hvítir Riddarar | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kári | 22 | 56 | 29 | +27 | 42 |
| 2 | Haukar | 22 | 55 | 32 | +23 | 47 |
| 3 | Selfoss | 22 | 55 | 36 | +19 | 45 |
| 4 | Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir | 22 | 51 | 45 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 | Fjölnir | 22 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 30 |
| 6 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 27 |
| 7 | KFG | 22 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 22 |
| 8 | Dalvík/Reynir | 22 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 31 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 25 |
| 10 | Víkingur Ólafsvík | 22 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 31 |
| 11 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 23 |
| 12 | Hvítir Riddarar | 22 | 28 | 54 | -26 | 17 |
