AI correctly predicted the Musa win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Musa Musa ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Musa win 0–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jun 12, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · EBK 1.28 — Musa 1.32
-
Jun 12, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Musa win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Musa win · EBK 0–2 Musa
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"betting_insight": {
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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"over_under": {
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"market": "Musa Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "EBK",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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{
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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},
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},
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"sort_key": 10046.71,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "7/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
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"alert_team": "Musa",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"has_alert": false,
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"model_team": "Musa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2717",
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"status_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"status_line": "Market disagrees with model",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -31.14,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
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"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.64,
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"label": "Draw",
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"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.49,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Musa",
"market_prob": 16.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -26.39,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.39,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
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"market_prob": 25.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.74,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.24,
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"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.74,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -31.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "EBK",
"market_prob_pct": 65.38,
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"steam_team_name": "Musa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"edge_status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"max_gap_pp": 31.14,
"suppress_hero": true,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"divergence_level": "breakdown",
"divergence_level_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"divergence_note": "The model and market differ by 31.1 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup \u2014 validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.",
"divergence_tier": "breakdown",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Musa",
"headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_prob_pct": 16.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"paragraphs": [
"Model and market diverge materially. Treat model probabilities as unreliable until inputs are validated."
],
"reliability_headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"reliability_icon": "\u2717",
"reliability_tier": "breakdown",
"summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
"tier": "breakdown",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Fail"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -31.14,
"hero_label": "EBK",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Musa odds shortened \u2193 -4.2%.",
"market_agreement": "very_weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 31.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_fail",
"status": "fail"
},
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -31.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "EBK",
"market_prob_pct": 65.38,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.01,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Musa",
"market_prob_pct": 16.62,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers EBK (16.6%).",
"Musa has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.2%, 7/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Musa, Market \u2192 EBK, Recent sharp money \u2192 Musa.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 72.46,
"closing_odds": 1.38,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 72.46,
"entry_odds": 1.38,
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"model_validation_status": "fail",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "lost"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Musa (swing 7.00 \u2192 4.79 \u2192 5.75) \u2014 net 4.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "7.00 \u2192 4.79 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
"pick_team": "Musa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,7.9",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
},
"open_odds": 6.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Musa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"open_odds": 6.0,
"pick_team": "Musa",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "Musa",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 31.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2245,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2245.webp",
"away_team_name": "Musa",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1541507,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_id": 13552,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13552.webp",
"home_team_name": "EBK",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_id": 248,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/248.webp",
"league_name": "Kakkonen - Grupo B",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 16:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Keski-Espoon urheilukeskus"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1416,
"best_odd": 5.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.1662,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.1937
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.165,
"best_odd": 5.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0014,
"implied_prob": 0.1801,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.1993
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3198,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0996,
"ev": -0.2352,
"implied_prob": 0.6538,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.5542
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"edge_no": 0.1174,
"edge_yes": -0.1174,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3104,
"ev_yes": -0.2097,
"implied_no": 0.3376,
"implied_yes": 0.6624,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.25,
"best_under_odd": 4.0,
"edge_over": -0.2639,
"edge_under": 0.2639,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3975,
"ev_under": 1.072,
"implied_over": 0.7459,
"implied_under": 0.2541,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.072,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.1662,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Musa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1174,
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3376,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2639,
"ev": 1.072,
"implied_prob": 0.2541,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1541507,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.072,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3376,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3376,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Musa",
"home": "EBK"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.388707,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.072,
"implied_prob": 0.2541,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1541507,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T16:29:05.457732+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Kakkonen - Grupo B — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Honka | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 43 |
| 2 | ÅIFK | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 |
| 3 | EPS | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 4 | HJS Akatemia | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 5 | Ilves II | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 6 | P-Iirot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 7 | GrIFK | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | EBK | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 9 | Musa | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 10 | NJS | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Honka | 18 | 56 | 17 | +39 | 43 |
| 2 | Ilves II | 18 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | EPS | 18 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 32 |
| 4 | ÅIFK | 18 | 38 | 18 | +20 | 39 |
| 5 | HJS Akatemia | 18 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 31 |
| 6 | P-Iirot | 18 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | EBK | 18 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 15 |
| 8 | GrIFK | 18 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 24 |
| 9 | Musa | 18 | 19 | 55 | -36 | 12 |
| 10 | NJS | 18 | 10 | 54 | -44 | 1 |
