Santa Fé FC · Probabilidad del modelo 36.1%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 13.8%
EV línea de consenso: +9.0%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Riesgo de avería del modelo
- Favorito
- Santa Fé FC Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.1%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 13.8%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Muy débil
- Validación
- Fallar
Resumen:
No interprete la comparación entre modelo y mercado hasta que pase la validación.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Muy débil
- Validación
- Fallar
- Mayor brecha
- America SP -30.1 pp
- Amplitud
- 4/4
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 30.1 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fé FC | 36.11% | 13.8% | +22.3 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 21.88% | +7.8 pp |
| America SP | 34.24% | 64.31% | -30.1 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Riesgo de avería del modelo
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 30.1 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
- Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
BTTS Sí
— Valor
Más de 2.5 48.2% · Menos de 2.5 51.8%
EV terminado -10.8% · EV inferior +1.0%
Lectura de valor:
Menos de 2.5
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.5/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -10.8% ·
EV inferior +1.0%
(4 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +8.5% · EV No -22.7%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +8.5% · EV No -22.7%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: La validación del modelo falló
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.4
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
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{
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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"label": "0-1",
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{
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{
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],
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"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
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{
"key": "X2",
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{
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"ev_over_display": {
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"ev_under_display": {
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"tier": "lean",
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2717",
"status_key": "disagrees",
"status_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"status_line": "Market disagrees with model",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
"edge_pp": 22.31,
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"label": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"market_prob": 13.8,
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"outcome": "home"
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{
"edge_pp": 7.77,
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"market_prob": 21.88,
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"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.07,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "America SP",
"market_prob": 64.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
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{
"edge_pp": -3.05,
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"market_prob": 51.25,
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"outcome": "over"
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{
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{
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"market_prob": 45.92,
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"outcome": "yes"
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{
"edge_pp": -8.58,
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.08,
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"outcome": "no"
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],
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"edge_pp": -30.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "America SP",
"market_prob_pct": 64.31,
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"steam_team_name": "Santa F\u00e9 FC"
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"comparison_disabled": false,
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"divergence_guard": {
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"edge_status": "model_breakdown_risk",
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"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"divergence_level": "breakdown",
"divergence_level_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"divergence_note": "The model and market differ by 30.1 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup \u2014 validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.",
"divergence_tier": "breakdown",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
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"favourite_label": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_prob_pct": 13.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"paragraphs": [
"Model and market diverge materially. Treat model probabilities as unreliable until inputs are validated."
],
"reliability_headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"reliability_icon": "\u2717",
"reliability_tier": "breakdown",
"summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
"tier": "breakdown",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Fail"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -30.07,
"hero_label": "America SP",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "very_weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 30.07,
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"score_label_key": "mi_mv_fail",
"status": "fail"
},
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"outcome_separation": {
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"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 22.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"market_prob_pct": 13.8,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.88,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "America SP",
"market_prob_pct": 64.31,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers America SP (13.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Santa F\u00e9 FC, Market \u2192 America SP, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_failed",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation failed",
"entry_implied_pct": 71.68,
"entry_odds": 1.4,
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"model_validation_status": "fail",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "lost"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 6.0,
"pick_team": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 30.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 22945,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22945.webp",
"away_team_name": "America SP",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1541273,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_id": 27692,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 1098,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1098.webp",
"league_name": "Paulista S\u00e9rie B",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 22:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3293,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.099,
"ev": -0.241,
"implied_prob": 0.6431,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.5441
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1766,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.2188,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2326
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1331,
"best_odd": 6.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": 0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.138,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.1677
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.99,
"edge_no": -0.0858,
"edge_yes": 0.0858,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_yes": 0.0846,
"implied_no": 0.5408,
"implied_yes": 0.4592,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.0305,
"edge_under": 0.0305,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_under": 0.0101,
"implied_over": 0.5125,
"implied_under": 0.4875,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0901,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": 0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.138,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Santa F\u00e9 FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0858,
"ev": 0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0305,
"ev": 0.0101,
"implied_prob": 0.4875,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1541273,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0901,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "America SP",
"home": "Santa F\u00e9 FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.040574,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1541273,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:12:07.888016+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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