AI correctly predicted the Sevastopol win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Sevastopol Sevastopol ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevastopol | 45.8% | 60.2% | -14.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.8% | 26.8% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Rubin Yalta | 25.4% | 13.0% | +12.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Sevastopol's win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Sevastopol win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Sevastopol than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Sevastopol attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sevastopol higher (60.1% vs model 45.8%, 14.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sevastopol win 3–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sevastopol 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Rubin Yalta 25.4%
- xG · Sevastopol 1.52 — Rubin Yalta 1.08
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sevastopol 1.48 · Draw 3.32 · Rubin Yalta 6.85
- Implied 1X2 · Sevastopol 60.2% · Draw 26.8% · Rubin Yalta 13.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sevastopol 1.48 · Draw 3.32 · Rubin Yalta 6.85
- Implied 1X2 · Sevastopol 60.2% · Draw 26.8% · Rubin Yalta 13.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sevastopol win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
28/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.48
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sevastopol win · Sevastopol 3–1 Rubin Yalta
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "1/2 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"alert_team": "Rubin Yalta",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"steam_score": 18,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
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"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 14.3,
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},
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.7374,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sevastopol at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sevastopol as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sevastopol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sevastopol \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +74% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1536038 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sevastopol).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +74% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6756756756756757,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3216,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "1/2",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.35,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.35,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.52,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.52 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"steam_team": "Rubin Yalta",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sevastopol)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sevastopol)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1066,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7374,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sevastopol at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sevastopol as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sevastopol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sevastopol \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +74% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1536038 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sevastopol).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +74% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6756756756756757,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3216,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sevastopol 1.52 xG vs Rubin Yalta 1.08 \u2192 Sevastopol 45.8%",
"Market: Sevastopol ~60.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Rubin Yalta odds \u2191 +9.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Sevastopol projects stronger on expected goals (+0.44 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.35,
"fair_prob": 45.82,
"label": "Sevastopol",
"market_prob": 60.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.99,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.37,
"fair_prob": 25.37,
"label": "Rubin Yalta",
"market_prob": 13.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.86,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.86,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.26,
"fair_prob": 53.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.26,
"fair_prob": 46.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.82,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sevastopol",
"market_prob_pct": 60.17,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Rubin Yalta"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sevastopol\u0027s win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.35,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Sevastopol",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 60.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.4,
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Sevastopol \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sevastopol 1.52 xG vs Rubin Yalta 1.08 \u2192 Sevastopol 45.8%",
"Market: Sevastopol ~60.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Rubin Yalta odds \u2191 +9.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Sevastopol projects stronger on expected goals (+0.44 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.35,
"hero_label": "Sevastopol",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Rubin Yalta odds lengthened \u2191 +9.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Rubin Yalta has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sevastopol than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Sevastopol than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Rubin Yalta has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.6%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Sevastopol more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Rubin Yalta has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.6%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.35,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.0 pp (at 45.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.0,
"max_prob_pct": 45.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Sevastopol",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sevastopol higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.35,
"edge_pp": -14.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.82,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sevastopol",
"market_prob_pct": 60.17,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.99,
"edge_pp": 1.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.37,
"edge_pp": 12.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rubin Yalta",
"market_prob_pct": 13.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sevastopol (60.2%).",
"Rubin Yalta odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.6%, 1/2) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Sevastopol \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 67.57,
"closing_odds": 1.48,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 67.57,
"entry_odds": 1.48,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
}
],
"books_total": 2,
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 7.29,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Rubin Yalta (9.6%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (1/2).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.29",
"6.97",
"6.65"
],
"display": "7.29 \u2192 6.65 \u2192 7.29",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 31m",
"pick_team": "Rubin Yalta",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.29"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "6.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.29"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.65,
6.85,
7.29
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,12.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.65"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.65"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.29"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.65,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Illiquid",
"phase_tip": "Few bookmakers quoting \u2014 moves may not reflect broad market.",
"pick_team": "Rubin Yalta",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 7.29,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"open_odds": 6.65,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Rubin Yalta",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"current_odds": 7.29,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"open_odds": 6.65,
"pick_team": "Rubin Yalta",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Rubin Yalta",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rubin-yalta",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rubin Yalta",
"away_team_id": 17682,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17682.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rubin Yalta",
"away_team_public_id": "1DxZqVzUWqyaG8",
"away_team_slug": "rubin-yalta",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1536038,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Sevastopol",
"home_team_id": 13240,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13240.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sevastopol",
"home_team_public_id": "5w79aAjJ58ZdNQ",
"home_team_slug": "sevastopol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sevastopol",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Liga - Grupo 1",
"league_id": 651,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/651.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga - Grupo 1",
"league_public_id": "4h3YgbYgzSOxpv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2VTWRWfgpytcva",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sevastopol",
"venue_name": "Sportyvnyj Kompleks"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"best_odd": 6.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": 0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.13,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.13,
"draw": 0.2682,
"home": 0.6017
},
"model_prob": 0.2536,
"p_final": 0.1502
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2911,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0903,
"implied_prob": 0.2682,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.13,
"draw": 0.2682,
"home": 0.6017
},
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.274
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.471,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0675,
"ev": -0.2093,
"implied_prob": 0.6017,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.13,
"draw": 0.2682,
"home": 0.6017
},
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"p_final": 0.5342
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.85,
"edge": 0.1076,
"ev": 0.7374,
"implied_prob": 0.146,
"model_prob": 0.2536
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": -0.0132,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.2173,
"ev": -0.3216,
"implied_prob": 0.6757,
"model_prob": 0.4584
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1492,
"alpha_yes": 0.1356,
"best_no_odd": 1.64,
"best_yes_odd": 2.08,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0926,
"edge_yes": 0.0926,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2325,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1087,
"ev_yes": 0.1066,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.06,
"implied_no": 0.5606,
"implied_yes": 0.4394,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1492,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5606,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.5468
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1356,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.4519
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5468,
"p_final_yes": 0.4519,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1531,
"alpha_under": 0.1684,
"best_over_odd": 1.98,
"best_under_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.98,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.71,
"edge_over": 0.0186,
"edge_under": -0.0186,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0456,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0768,
"ev_under": -0.1142,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0878,
"implied_over": 0.4634,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4634,
"implied_under": 0.5366,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5366,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4663
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1684,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5335
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4663,
"p_final_under": 0.5335,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1066,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7374,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1066,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sevastopol)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1066,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7374,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sevastopol at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sevastopol as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sevastopol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Sevastopol \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +74% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1536038 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sevastopol).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +74% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.288,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.482,
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"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rubin Yalta",
"slot": "longshot"
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],
"markets": {
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},
"match_id": 1536038,
"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1066,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rubin Yalta",
"home": "Sevastopol"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1066,
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"market": "btts",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.3216,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1536038,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T12:59:06.924517+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Liga - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevastopol | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 50 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| 3 | Rostov II | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 34 |
| 5 | Pobeda | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 31 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| 9 | Druzhba | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 21 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 18 |
| 13 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 |
| 15 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rostov II | 21 | 45 | 16 | +29 | 46 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 42 | 20 | +22 | 46 |
| 3 | Sevastopol | 21 | 38 | 17 | +21 | 50 |
| 4 | Pobeda | 20 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 33 |
| 5 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 36 | 30 | +6 | 31 |
| 6 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 34 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 27 | 19 | +8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 28 |
| 9 | Lugansk | 21 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 24 |
| 10 | Druzhba | 20 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 19 | 39 | -20 | 14 |
| 13 | Izberbash | 21 | 19 | 57 | -38 | 18 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
| 15 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 16 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
