Gumi Sportstoto W · Probabilidad del modelo 37.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 14.9%
EV línea de consenso: +9.8%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Gumi Sportstoto W Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 37.1%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 14.9%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Empate ↑ +4.2% 3.6 → 3.75
- Tipo de movimiento
- ⚡ Movimiento liderado por sharp
- Puntuación de vapor
- 48B
Moderate sharp signal - Amplitud del mercado
- 10/11
- Fase
- Reajuste agresivo
- Libro de referencia
- Bet365
Movimiento liderado por sharp: Pinnacle - validación CLV
- +0.00 pp
Movimiento con mayor consenso
Camino de probabilidades — Empate
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 7h 59m
Abierto
4.18
Bajo/Alto
3.60
Actual
3.75
Narrativa de mercado
Pinnacle lideró el repricing en Empate (4.2%) — casa sharp movió antes del seguimiento más amplio.
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Suwon FMC W -29.9 pp
- Amplitud
- 10/11
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se alargaron ↑ +4.2%.
La estimación justa difiere sustancialmente de los precios actuales del mercado. Pueden ocurrir grandes divergencias cuando los datos de calificación son incompletos, las estimaciones de la fuerza del equipo son inciertas o el mercado incorpora información que no está presente en el modelo. Interprete con precaución.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon FMC W | 33.31% | 63.18% | -29.9 pp |
| Empate | 29.63% | 21.92% | +7.7 pp |
| Gumi Sportstoto W | 37.06% | 14.9% | +22.2 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Se requiere validación del modelo
El modelo y el mercado difieren materialmente (29.9 puntos porcentuales). Se recomienda una validación adicional antes de interpretar esta comparación.
- Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
1X2
✔ Gumi Sportstoto W (Valor)
Más de 2.5 48.2% · Menos de 2.5 51.8%
EV terminado -15.2% · EV inferior +6.2%
Lectura de valor:
Menos de 2.5
Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.5% · EV No -11.3%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.5/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -15.2% ·
EV inferior +6.2%
(10 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.5% · EV No -11.3%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.5% · EV No -11.3%
Empate market context before kickoff
⚡ Movimiento liderado por sharp on Empate
- Odds move
- 3.60 → 3.75 (↑ +4.2%)
- Market breadth
- 10/11
- Steam score
- 48 (B)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Esperando el inicio
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.45
- Cierre
- 1.45
- CLV
- +0.0 pp
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "10/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 29.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -29.87,
"hero_label": "Suwon FMC W",
"market_prob_pct": 14.9,
"market_team": "Suwon FMC W",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Gumi Sportstoto W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -29.87,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Suwon FMC W",
"market_prob": 63.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.71,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
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{
"edge_pp": 22.16,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Gumi Sportstoto W",
"market_prob": 14.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.13,
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"label": "Over 2.5",
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"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": 5.13,
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"market_prob": 46.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.39,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.39,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
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"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -29.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Suwon FMC W",
"market_prob_pct": 63.18,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 29.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gumi Sportstoto W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 14.9,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Gumi Sportstoto W, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Suwon FMC W remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -29.87,
"hero_label": "Suwon FMC W",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +4.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 29.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -29.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Suwon FMC W",
"market_prob_pct": 63.18,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.92,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gumi Sportstoto W",
"market_prob_pct": 14.9,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Suwon FMC W (14.9%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +4.2%, 10/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gumi Sportstoto W, Market \u2192 Suwon FMC W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 68.97,
"closing_odds": 1.45,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 68.97,
"entry_odds": 1.45,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "10/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 7h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Draw (4.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "4.18 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 3.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 7h 59m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.18"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.3",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/11 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/11",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 29.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 14374,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14374.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gumi Sportstoto W",
"country_code": "KR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/kr.svg",
"country_name": "South-Korea",
"fixture_id": 1533726,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "South-Korea",
"home_team_id": 14379,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14379.webp",
"home_team_name": "Suwon FMC W",
"league_country": "South-Korea",
"league_id": 660,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/660.webp",
"league_name": "WK-League",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 10:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1335,
"best_odd": 6.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.0981,
"implied_prob": 0.149,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.1786
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.177,
"best_odd": 4.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.027,
"implied_prob": 0.2192,
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2328
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3315,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0989,
"ev": -0.2272,
"implied_prob": 0.6318,
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.5329
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"edge_no": -0.0439,
"edge_yes": 0.0439,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1128,
"ev_yes": 0.0355,
"implied_no": 0.4989,
"implied_yes": 0.5011,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0513,
"edge_under": 0.0513,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"implied_over": 0.5333,
"implied_under": 0.4667,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "under",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0981,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.0981,
"implied_prob": 0.149,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gumi Sportstoto W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0439,
"ev": 0.0355,
"implied_prob": 0.5011,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0513,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1533726,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0981,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4667,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gumi Sportstoto W",
"home": "Suwon FMC W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.039981,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0981,
"implied_prob": 0.149,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gumi Sportstoto W",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1533726,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:59:08.681322+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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