Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Oţelul Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 49.6%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Oţelul Oţelul ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f065613a223086cfda9c944d2bd46a1a6118031387150a0dae82008701ed0905",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.2466,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2572,
"fair_odds_away": 4.06,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.89,
"fair_odds_home": 2.02,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.82,
"home_win_prob": 0.4962,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : O\u0163elul or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : O\u0163elul",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "O\u0163elul"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "O\u0163elul",
"confidence": 49.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : O\u0163elul",
"edge": 0.1045,
"edge_gap": 0.2384,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.4958,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 24.7,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 49.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "O\u0163elul"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.37
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.37,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "O\u0163elul Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.56,
"market_odds": 2.37,
"model_odds": 2.02,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": 7.3,
"value_pct": 17.3,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 37,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 13,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 37,
"home_score_rate": 83.8,
"no_prob": 39.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 60.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 60.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.82,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "O\u0163elul or Draw",
"prob": 75.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "O\u0163elul or Farul Constanta",
"prob": 74.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Farul Constanta",
"prob": 50.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "O\u0163elul or Draw",
"pick_prob": 75.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 24.7,
"draw_pct": 25.7,
"home_pct": 49.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "O\u0163elul"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.06,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 59.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.06,
"under_prob": 41.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 17.6,
"implied_prob": 42.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "O\u0163elul Win",
"model_prob": 49.6,
"odds": 2.37
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.82,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2272,
"ev_under": -0.2538,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2272,
"over_prob": 59.0,
"sort_key": 10354.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 41.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2024,
"ev_yes": 0.0962,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0962,
"no_prob": 39.1,
"sort_key": 10086.58,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 60.9
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0214,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"max_ev": 0.0214,
"model_prob": 0.4958,
"side_label": "O\u0163elul",
"sort_key": 5217.12,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.6
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2596,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2596.webp",
"away_team_name": "Farul Constanta",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1531540,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 6886,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6886.webp",
"home_team_name": "O\u0163elul",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_id": 283,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
"league_name": "Liga I",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-09 14:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4007,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1575,
"implied_prob": 0.3198,
"model_prob": 0.2467,
"p_final": 0.2905
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2859,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.2889,
"model_prob": 0.2575,
"p_final": 0.2799
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3794,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0397,
"ev": 0.0214,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.4958,
"p_final": 0.431
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.04,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": -0.0849,
"edge_yes": 0.0849,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2024,
"ev_yes": 0.0962,
"implied_no": 0.4759,
"implied_yes": 0.5241,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.08,
"best_under_odd": 1.82,
"edge_over": 0.1246,
"edge_under": -0.1246,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2272,
"ev_under": -0.2538,
"implied_over": 0.4654,
"implied_under": 0.5346,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2272,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.609,
"draw_prob": 0.2575,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4958,
"over_prob": 0.59,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"under_prob": 0.41,
"xg_diff": 0.58
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0397,
"ev": 0.0214,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4958,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "O\u0163elul"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0849,
"ev": 0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5241,
"model_prob": 0.609,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1246,
"ev": 0.2272,
"implied_prob": 0.4654,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1531540,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2272,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2467,
"draw": 0.2575,
"home": 0.4958
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5241,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.609,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5241,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.609,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Farul Constanta",
"home": "O\u0163elul"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.16756,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2272,
"implied_prob": 0.4654,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.59,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1531540,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:59:53.858552+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga I — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | Universitatea Cluj | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 46 |
| 3 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 43 |
| 4 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Rapid | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | FCSB | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 8 | Uta Arad | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 9 | FC Botosani | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 10 | Oţelul | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 11 | Farul Constanta | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 12 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 32 |
| 13 | Csikszereda | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 14 | Unirea Slobozia | 30 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 25 |
| 15 | AFC Hermannstadt | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Metaloglobus | 30 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 12 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FCSB | 30 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 46 |
| 2 | Oţelul | 30 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 41 |
| 3 | Farul Constanta | 30 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 37 |
| 4 | Uta Arad | 30 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Botosani | 30 | 37 | 29 | +8 | 42 |
| 6 | Csikszereda | 30 | 30 | 58 | -28 | 32 |
| 7 | AFC Hermannstadt | 30 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 23 |
| 8 | Unirea Slobozia | 30 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 25 |
| 9 | Metaloglobus | 30 | 25 | 66 | -41 | 12 |
| 10 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 30 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 32 |
| 11 | Universitatea Cluj | 10 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 39 |
| 13 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 50 |
| 14 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 10 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 43 |
| 15 | Rapid | 10 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 16 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 32 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FCSB | 30 | 50.6 | 28.2 | +22.4 | 46 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 43.7 | 24.3 | +19.4 | 39 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 37.5 | 24.4 | +13.1 | 50 |
| 4 | Oţelul | 30 | 41.3 | 33.1 | +8.2 | 41 |
| 5 | Farul Constanta | 30 | 37.8 | 33.2 | +4.6 | 37 |
| 6 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 10 | 34.8 | 32.4 | +2.4 | 43 |
| 7 | Rapid | 10 | 35.3 | 33.2 | +2.1 | 34 |
| 8 | FC Botosani | 30 | 33.9 | 32.2 | +1.7 | 42 |
| 9 | Universitatea Cluj | 10 | 32.0 | 30.8 | +1.2 | 46 |
| 10 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 26.0 | 25.8 | +0.2 | 32 |
| 11 | AFC Hermannstadt | 30 | 29.8 | 31.9 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 12 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 30 | 28.9 | 34.5 | -5.6 | 32 |
| 13 | Uta Arad | 30 | 33.5 | 42.0 | -8.5 | 43 |
| 14 | Unirea Slobozia | 30 | 26.9 | 39.8 | -12.9 | 25 |
| 15 | Metaloglobus | 30 | 23.1 | 42.4 | -19.3 | 12 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 30 | 22.9 | 49.8 | -26.9 | 32 |