The model missed the final outcome (Neman Grodno win 1–2).
The model had projected Isloch Minsk Raion at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Isloch Minsk Raion Neman Grodno ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isloch Minsk Raion | 38.5% | 42.2% | -3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.5% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Neman Grodno | 31.9% | 27.3% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Neman Grodno win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Isloch Minsk Raion; match finished Neman Grodno
Market lesson
The full-time result was Neman Grodno win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Isloch Minsk Raion 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Neman Grodno 31.9%
- xG · Isloch Minsk Raion 1.37 — Neman Grodno 1.23
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Isloch Minsk Raion 2.17 · Draw 3.00 · Neman Grodno 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · Isloch Minsk Raion 42.2% · Draw 30.5% · Neman Grodno 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Isloch Minsk Raion 2.17 · Draw 3.00 · Neman Grodno 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · Isloch Minsk Raion 42.2% · Draw 30.5% · Neman Grodno 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Neman Grodno win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
76/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.36
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Neman Grodno win · Isloch Minsk Raion 1–2 Neman Grodno
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.1186,
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "1/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.3%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.7,
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"steam_score": 14,
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},
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{
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isloch Minsk Raion)."
},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
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"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
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"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Isloch Minsk Raion at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Isloch Minsk Raion as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Isloch Minsk Raion",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isloch Minsk Raion).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1186,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.68,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"steam_team": "Neman Grodno",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isloch Minsk Raion).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isloch Minsk Raion)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isloch Minsk Raion)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Isloch Minsk Raion at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Isloch Minsk Raion as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Isloch Minsk Raion",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isloch Minsk Raion).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1186,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Isloch Minsk Raion 1.37 xG vs Neman Grodno 1.23 \u2192 Isloch Minsk Raion 38.5%",
"Market: Isloch Minsk Raion ~42.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Neman Grodno odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Isloch Minsk Raion with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.72,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Isloch Minsk Raion",
"market_prob": 42.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.96,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Neman Grodno",
"market_prob": 27.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.02,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.02,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Neman Grodno",
"market_prob_pct": 27.26,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Neman Grodno"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Isloch Minsk Raion",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Isloch Minsk Raion \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Isloch Minsk Raion 1.37 xG vs Neman Grodno 1.23 \u2192 Isloch Minsk Raion 38.5%",
"Market: Isloch Minsk Raion ~42.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Neman Grodno odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Isloch Minsk Raion with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.68,
"hero_label": "Neman Grodno",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Neman Grodno odds lengthened \u2191 +4.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/5 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/5 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Neman Grodno (\u2191 +4.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/5), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Neman Grodno",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.72,
"edge_pp": -3.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Isloch Minsk Raion",
"market_prob_pct": 42.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.96,
"edge_pp": -0.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.68,
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Neman Grodno",
"market_prob_pct": 27.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Isloch Minsk Raion (42.2%).",
"Neman Grodno odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.3%, 1/5) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Isloch Minsk Raion \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.76,
"closing_odds": 3.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.76,
"entry_odds": 3.36,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "1/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.36,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 28h 25m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Neman Grodno (swing 3.69 \u2192 2.92 \u2192 3.36) \u2014 net 4.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.36",
"3.29",
"3.22"
],
"display": "3.69 \u2192 2.92 \u2192 3.36",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 28h 25m",
"pick_team": "Neman Grodno",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.69"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.36"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.22,
3.36
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.22"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.22"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.36"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.36"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.22,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Neman Grodno",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.36,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 3.22,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Neman Grodno",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/5",
"current_odds": 3.36,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 3.22,
"pick_team": "Neman Grodno",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Neman Grodno",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "neman",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Neman Grodno",
"away_team_id": 387,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/387.webp",
"away_team_name": "Neman Grodno",
"away_team_public_id": "5a1uUJA4yrpWI5",
"away_team_slug": "neman",
"country_code": "BY",
"country_display_name": "Belarus",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/by.svg",
"country_id": 15,
"country_name": "Belarus",
"fixture_id": 1525987,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Belarus",
"home_team_display_name": "Isloch Minsk Raion",
"home_team_id": 391,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/391.webp",
"home_team_name": "Isloch Minsk Raion",
"home_team_public_id": "1WTeci6Ngz6Ssu",
"home_team_slug": "fc-isloch-minsk-r",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fc-isloch-minsk-r",
"league_country": "Belarus",
"league_country_display": "Belarus",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Bielorrusia",
"league_id": 116,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/116.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Bielorrusia",
"league_public_id": "3aCDHUN4ApS5sj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:00:00",
"public_id": "5pq23Z7re0TVvP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Minsk",
"venue_name": "FC Minsk Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2789,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.3053,
"home": 0.4221
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2857
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2958,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.3053,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.3053,
"home": 0.4221
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3025
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4247,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.3053,
"home": 0.4221
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4062
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": 0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0375,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": -0.0762,
"ev": -0.1654,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2251,
"alpha_yes": 0.2047,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.92,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0602,
"edge_yes": 0.0602,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1002,
"ev_yes": 0.0445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0524,
"implied_no": 0.5162,
"implied_yes": 0.4838,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1002,
"implied_prob": 0.5162,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5027
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.4838,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4961
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5027,
"p_final_yes": 0.4961,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1621,
"alpha_under": 0.2228,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.6,
"edge_over": 0.0659,
"edge_under": -0.0659,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0407,
"ev_under": -0.166,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0886,
"implied_over": 0.4161,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4156,
"implied_under": 0.5839,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5844,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.4156,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4263
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.0886,
"implied_prob": 0.5844,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5696
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4263,
"p_final_under": 0.5696,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isloch Minsk Raion)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Isloch Minsk Raion at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Isloch Minsk Raion as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Isloch Minsk Raion",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isloch Minsk Raion).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1186,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Isloch Minsk Raion"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0123,
"market_prob": 0.4838,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2251,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1002,
"implied_prob": 0.5162,
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"p_final": 0.5027
},
"p_final": 0.4961,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0524,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.4838,
"model_prob": 0.544,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0602,
"ev": 0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4838,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.4156,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.4156,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4263
},
"p_final": 0.4263,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0407,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.0886,
"implied_prob": 0.5844,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5696
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0659,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4161,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1525987,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0845,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Neman Grodno",
"home": "Isloch Minsk Raion"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.02851,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4161,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1186,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1525987,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:00:00.366964+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Bielorrusia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isloch Minsk Raion | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 44 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 40 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 6 | Neman Grodno | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 7 | Vitebsk | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| 13 | Belshina Bobruisk | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 14 | BATE Borisov | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 18 |
| 15 | Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 16 |
| 16 | Naftan | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 42 | 17 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 40 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 21 | 37 | 16 | +21 | 43 |
| 4 | Isloch Minsk Raion | 22 | 37 | 18 | +19 | 45 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 39 |
| 6 | FC Minsk | 23 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 34 |
| 7 | Vitebsk | 23 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Neman Grodno | 22 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 37 |
| 10 | Baranovichi | 23 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 25 |
| 11 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 23 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 23 |
| 12 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
| 13 | Belshina Bobruisk | 22 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 20 | 36 | -16 | 16 |
| 15 | Naftan | 23 | 20 | 54 | -34 | 14 |
| 16 | BATE Borisov | 22 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 18 |
