The model missed the final outcome (Ceará win 2–1).
The model had projected Novorizontino at 55.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Novorizontino Ceará ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceará | 17.9% | 33.6% | -15.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 26.3% | 29.3% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Novorizontino | 55.8% | 37.0% | +18.7 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Novorizontino's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 37.0%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Ceará win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Novorizontino.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.66) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Novorizontino; match finished Ceará
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Novorizontino by 18.7 percentage points (37.1% vs model 55.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ceará 17.9% · Draw 26.3% · Novorizontino 55.8%
- xG · Ceará 0.91 — Novorizontino 1.75
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ceará 2.86 · Draw 3.28 · Novorizontino 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Ceará 33.6% · Draw 29.3% · Novorizontino 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ceará 2.86 · Draw 3.28 · Novorizontino 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Ceará 33.6% · Draw 29.3% · Novorizontino 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ceará win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
6/100
Betting Confidence
43/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ceará win · Ceará 2–1 Novorizontino
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"no": {
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"edge": -0.0028,
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},
"p_final": 0.5055,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-6.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.05,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "-5.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 49.2,
"sort_key": 1787.5,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 50.8
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"alert_team": "Cear\u00e1",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.74,
"hero_label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 37.0,
"market_team": "Novorizontino",
"model_prob_pct": 55.8,
"model_team": "Novorizontino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.451,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 55.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (55.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520881 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.84"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.84
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.74,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.74,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.75,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 30.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.91,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.75,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.91 \u00b7 Away xG 1.75 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +30%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"steam_team": "Cear\u00e1",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.451,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 55.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (55.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520881 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.84"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.84
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cear\u00e1 0.91 xG vs Novorizontino 1.75 \u2192 Novorizontino 55.8%",
"Market: Novorizontino ~37.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Cear\u00e1 odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Novorizontino, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.73,
"fair_prob": 17.92,
"label": "Cear\u00e1",
"market_prob": 33.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.01,
"fair_prob": 26.33,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.74,
"fair_prob": 55.75,
"label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob": 37.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 49.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.86,
"fair_prob": 50.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.39,
"fair_prob": 49.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 18.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.75,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 37.01,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Cear\u00e1"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Novorizontino\u0027s win probability at 55.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 37.0%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 18.74,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Novorizontino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.8,
"model_prob_pct": 55.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Novorizontino \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+18.8 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cear\u00e1 0.91 xG vs Novorizontino 1.75 \u2192 Novorizontino 55.8%",
"Market: Novorizontino ~37.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Cear\u00e1 odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Novorizontino, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.74,
"hero_label": "Novorizontino",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Cear\u00e1 odds lengthened \u2191 +6.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Cear\u00e1 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Novorizontino.",
"note": "Drift away from Cear\u00e1 \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Novorizontino.",
"However, Cear\u00e1 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Cear\u00e1 \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Novorizontino more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Cear\u00e1 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.74,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 29.4 pp (at 55.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 29.4,
"max_prob_pct": 55.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Novorizontino",
"largest_gap_pp": 18.7,
"lead": "The model rates Novorizontino considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.73,
"edge_pp": -15.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.92,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cear\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 33.65,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.01,
"edge_pp": -3.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.33,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 18.74,
"edge_pp": 18.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.75,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 37.01,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Cear\u00e1 \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Novorizontino (37.0%).",
"Cear\u00e1 odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.9%, 5/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Novorizontino \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+18.8 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"closing_odds": 2.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Cear\u00e1 (6.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.86",
"2.74",
"2.62"
],
"display": "2.84 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 38m",
"pick_team": "Cear\u00e1",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.84"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
2.86,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/9 sportsbooks on Cear\u00e1",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Cear\u00e1",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Cear\u00e1",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Cear\u00e1",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Cear\u00e1",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "novorizontino",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Novorizontino",
"away_team_id": 7834,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7834.webp",
"away_team_name": "Novorizontino",
"away_team_public_id": "2Bs7BSUbq4qcHu",
"away_team_slug": "novorizontino",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520881,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Cear\u00e1",
"home_team_id": 129,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/129.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cear\u00e1",
"home_team_public_id": "30p3lEHqSHZvUH",
"home_team_slug": "ceara",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ceara",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B de Brasil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B de Brasil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 23:30:00",
"public_id": "2D2F5UbmwHm88V",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Fortaleza",
"venue_name": "Estadio Castel\u00e3o"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3231,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0607,
"ev": 0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3701,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.3365
},
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"p_final": 0.4309
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2863,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3701,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.3365
},
"model_prob": 0.2629,
"p_final": 0.2847
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3437,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0541,
"ev": -0.1925,
"implied_prob": 0.3365,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3701,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.3365
},
"model_prob": 0.179,
"p_final": 0.2824
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.1735,
"ev": 0.451,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.5581
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": -0.042,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.2629
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.1706,
"ev": -0.488,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.179
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5208,
"alpha_yes": 0.5208,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0039,
"edge_yes": 0.0039,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0652,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0851,
"ev_yes": -0.05,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.075,
"implied_no": 0.4959,
"implied_yes": 0.5041,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.4945
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5055
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4945,
"p_final_yes": 0.5055,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5055,
"alpha_under": 0.5551,
"best_over_odd": 2.22,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0576,
"edge_under": -0.0586,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1011,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0065,
"ev_under": -0.1449,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1181,
"implied_over": 0.4384,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4406,
"implied_under": 0.5616,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5594,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5055,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.4686
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5551,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.1181,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5281
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4686,
"p_final_under": 0.5281,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.66,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.451,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1202,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.451,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 55.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (55.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520881 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.84"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.84
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.508,
"draw_prob": 0.2629,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5581,
"over_prob": 0.496,
"total_xg": 2.66,
"under_prob": 0.503,
"xg_diff": 0.84
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0607,
"ev": 0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Novorizontino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0028,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.4945
},
"p_final": 0.5055,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.075,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5055
}
},
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.05,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5055,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.028,
"market_prob": 0.4406,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5055,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.4686
},
"p_final": 0.4686,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0065,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5551,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.1181,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5281
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0576,
"ev": 0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520881,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1202,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5581,
"draw": 0.2629,
"home": 0.179
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Novorizontino",
"home": "Cear\u00e1"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.067084,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Novorizontino",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520881,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:29:11.609254+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie B de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Juventude | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 | Criciúma | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 6 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 8 | Operário-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiabá | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 43 |
| 11 | Goiás | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 42 |
| 14 | Náutico | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceará | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avaí | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | CRB | 30 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 48 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 4 | Operário-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Náutico | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 30 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 42 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 |
| 12 | Ceará | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Juventude | 30 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 53 |
| 14 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 15 | Criciúma | 30 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 50 |
| 16 | Cuiabá | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 17 | Goiás | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 18 | Avaí | 30 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 52 |
| 3 | Cuiabá | 30 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avaí | 30 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 48 |
| 8 | Juventude | 30 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 53 |
| 9 | Criciúma | 30 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 50 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Náutico | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goiás | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operário-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceará | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 30 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 30 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
