AI correctly predicted the Avaí win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Avaí Avaí ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.33) — 3 goals materialised
- Avaí attacking xG significantly stronger (2.31 vs 1.02)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Avaí win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jul 21, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Avaí 2.31 — América Mineiro 1.02
-
Jul 21, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Avaí win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (71%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
1.53
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Avaí win · Avaí 2–1 América Mineiro
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 65.2%
- Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"advice": "Combo Double chance : Ava\u00ed or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Ava\u00ed",
"percent_away": "10%",
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"winner_name": "Ava\u00ed"
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"away_xg": 1.02,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"confidence": 65.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Ava\u00ed",
"edge": 0.2318,
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"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4203,
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.1,
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Ava\u00ed"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.29,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ava\u00ed Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.38,
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"overround": 3.9,
"prob_edge": 21.7,
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"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 63.9,
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"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 18,
"home_score_rate": 90.1,
"no_prob": 41.3,
"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
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"away_expected": 1.02,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.5
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{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
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"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ava\u00ed or Draw",
"prob": 85.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ava\u00ed or Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"prob": 79.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"prob": 34.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Ava\u00ed or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.2,
"draw_pct": 20.7,
"home_pct": 65.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ava\u00ed"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.33,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 64.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 64.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.33,
"under_prob": 35.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 49.7,
"implied_prob": 43.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ava\u00ed Win",
"model_prob": 65.4,
"odds": 2.29
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.11,
"draw": 30.85,
"home": 42.03
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-21 22:29:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-21 21:59:29",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ava\u00ed",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.03,
"gap_pp": 23.18,
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"model_pct": 65.21
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.85,
"gap_pp": -10.19,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 20.66
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.11,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.25,
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"model_pct": 64.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.75,
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"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.29,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.12,
"early": 3.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.85,
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},
{
"closing": 3.55,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
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{
"closing": 2.39,
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"implied_closing_pct": 40.25,
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"kind": "ou_o"
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{
"closing": 1.61,
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 24.4,
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
}
},
"home_xg": 2.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1184,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.8,
"text": "+11.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1184,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+11.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6521,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"sort_key": 10256.56,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
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"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "lean",
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},
{
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"ev_yes": null,
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"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 41.3,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 58.7
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 23.12,
"hero_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 42.0,
"market_team": "Ava\u00ed",
"model_prob_pct": 65.2,
"model_team": "Ava\u00ed",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1184,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4933,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Wait",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ava\u00ed",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ava\u00ed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520781 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1184,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6521,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.3%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (71%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 47,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 23.12,
"max_gap_pp": 23.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.02,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.31,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.31,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.02 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +71%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1184,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4933,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Wait",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ava\u00ed",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ava\u00ed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520781 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1184,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6521,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.3%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ava\u00ed 2.31 xG vs Am\u00e9rica Mineiro 1.02 \u2192 Ava\u00ed 65.2%",
"Market: Ava\u00ed ~42.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ava\u00ed, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 23.12,
"fair_prob": 65.15,
"label": "Ava\u00ed",
"market_prob": 42.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.16,
"fair_prob": 20.69,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.94,
"fair_prob": 14.17,
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"market_prob": 27.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 64.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 58.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 23.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 65.15,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ava\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 42.03,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Ava\u00ed\u0027s win probability at 65.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 42.0%, a difference of 23.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 23.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+23.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 23.2,
"model_prob_pct": 65.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+23.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 47,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ava\u00ed 2.31 xG vs Am\u00e9rica Mineiro 1.02 \u2192 Ava\u00ed 65.2%",
"Market: Ava\u00ed ~42.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ava\u00ed, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 23.12,
"hero_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -3.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 23.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 44.5 pp (at 65.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 44.5,
"max_prob_pct": 65.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"largest_gap_pp": 23.1,
"lead": "The model rates Ava\u00ed considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 23.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 23.12,
"edge_pp": 23.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 65.15,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ava\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 42.03,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.16,
"edge_pp": -10.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.94,
"edge_pp": -12.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"market_prob_pct": 27.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ava\u00ed (42.0%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.1%, 8/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ava\u00ed, Market \u2192 Ava\u00ed, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Draw (3.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.15",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.87 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 55m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.87"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.12,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"away_team_id": 125,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/125.webp",
"away_team_name": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"away_team_slug": "america-mineiro",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520781,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Ava\u00ed",
"home_team_id": 145,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/145.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ava\u00ed",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Ava\u00ed",
"home_team_slug": "avai",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie B",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie B",
"league_name_canonical": "Serie B de Brasil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-21 22:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Ressacada"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2416,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1488,
"implied_prob": 0.2711,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2711,
"draw": 0.3085,
"home": 0.4203
},
"model_prob": 0.1413,
"p_final": 0.2398
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2541,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.3085,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2711,
"draw": 0.3085,
"home": 0.4203
},
"model_prob": 0.2066,
"p_final": 0.2826
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2936,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.068,
"ev": 0.1184,
"implied_prob": 0.4203,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2711,
"draw": 0.3085,
"home": 0.4203
},
"model_prob": 0.6521,
"p_final": 0.4884
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.55,
"edge": -0.1404,
"ev": -0.4983,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.1413
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.1139,
"ev": -0.3555,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.2066
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.2154,
"ev": 0.4933,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.6521
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.33,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1184,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4933,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1184,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1184,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4933,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 23.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Wait",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ava\u00ed",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ava\u00ed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520781 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Ava\u00ed.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1184,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6521,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.3%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.587,
"draw_prob": 0.2066,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6521,
"over_prob": 0.647,
"total_xg": 3.33,
"under_prob": 0.353,
"xg_diff": 1.29
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.068,
"ev": 0.1184,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4203,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6521,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ava\u00ed"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.587,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.647,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520781,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1184,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1413,
"draw": 0.2066,
"home": 0.6521
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro",
"home": "Ava\u00ed"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.09265,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1184,
"implied_prob": 0.4203,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6521,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ava\u00ed",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1184,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4203,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6521,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520781,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-21T22:29:15.395931+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie B de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 61 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 57 |
| 5 | Criciúma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 56 |
| 6 | Atlético Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goiás | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 48 |
| 10 | Operário-PR | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 43 |
| 14 | Náutico | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceará | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 41 |
| 17 | Avaí | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 36 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 33 | 59 | 28 | +31 | 60 |
| 2 | CRB | 33 | 51 | 47 | +4 | 52 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 33 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 61 |
| 4 | São Bernardo | 33 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 46 |
| 5 | Sport Recife | 33 | 45 | 35 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 | Operário-PR | 33 | 44 | 45 | -1 | 48 |
| 7 | Londrina | 33 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 29 |
| 8 | Atlético Goianiense | 33 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 53 |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 33 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 | Juventude | 33 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 60 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 57 |
| 12 | Náutico | 33 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 33 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 41 |
| 14 | Ceará | 33 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
| 15 | Criciúma | 33 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 56 |
| 16 | Goiás | 33 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 48 |
| 17 | Avaí | 33 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
| 18 | Cuiabá | 33 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 33 | 21 | 54 | -33 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 18 | 73 | -55 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 33 | 19.0 | 10.4 | +8.6 | 60 |
| 2 | Cuiabá | 33 | 14.1 | 7.2 | +6.9 | 47 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 57 |
| 4 | Atlético Goianiense | 33 | 16.8 | 12.9 | +3.9 | 53 |
| 5 | Juventude | 33 | 12.8 | 9.3 | +3.5 | 60 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 33 | 13.9 | 10.7 | +3.2 | 61 |
| 7 | Criciúma | 33 | 11.5 | 8.3 | +3.2 | 56 |
| 8 | CRB | 33 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 52 |
| 9 | Londrina | 33 | 12.5 | 10.9 | +1.6 | 29 |
| 10 | Avaí | 33 | 12.0 | 10.4 | +1.6 | 36 |
| 11 | Sport Recife | 33 | 15.5 | 14.2 | +1.3 | 51 |
| 12 | Botafogo-SP | 33 | 14.6 | 14.3 | +0.3 | 41 |
| 13 | Náutico | 33 | 15.9 | 16.6 | -0.7 | 42 |
| 14 | São Bernardo | 33 | 13.9 | 15.2 | -1.3 | 46 |
| 15 | Goiás | 33 | 12.8 | 14.8 | -2.0 | 48 |
| 16 | Operário-PR | 33 | 14.5 | 17.2 | -2.7 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceará | 33 | 9.6 | 15.1 | -5.5 | 42 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 33 | 11.9 | 18.4 | -6.5 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 33 | 13.3 | 21.4 | -8.1 | 43 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 9.9 | 26.5 | -16.6 | 13 |
