Auditoría de predicción: Botafogo-SP vs Avaí Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "alert_breadth": "10/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +35.7%",
        "alert_team": "Ava\u00ed",
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        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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            {
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              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
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            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Steam conflicts with model",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
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            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 7.7,
            "steam_coherence": 0.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 54,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
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        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
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            "score": 43,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Model Value",
            "score": 33,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
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            "action": "monitor",
            "label": "Monitor"
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          "label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
          "tier": "monitor"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Botafogo-SP 2.42 xG vs Ava\u00ed 0.93 \u2192 Botafogo-SP 69.2%",
            "Market: Botafogo-SP ~50.5% implied",
            "Steam: Ava\u00ed \u2191 +35.7%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans Botafogo-SP, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 18.71,
          "fair_prob": 69.21,
          "label": "Botafogo-SP",
          "market_prob": 50.5,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.9,
          "fair_prob": 19.18,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 29.08,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.81,
          "fair_prob": 11.61,
          "label": "Ava\u00ed",
          "market_prob": 20.42,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 65.0,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 34.9,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 56.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 43.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 18.71,
        "fair_prob_pct": 69.21,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Botafogo-SP",
        "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Ava\u00ed"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Botafogo-SP\u0027s win probability at 69.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 50.5%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 18.71,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Botafogo-SP",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 69.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Botafogo-SP, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Execution Confidence",
              "score": 43,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Model Value",
              "score": 33,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "monitor",
              "label": "Monitor"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Botafogo-SP 2.42 xG vs Ava\u00ed 0.93 \u2192 Botafogo-SP 69.2%",
              "Market: Botafogo-SP ~50.5% implied",
              "Steam: Ava\u00ed \u2191 +35.7%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans Botafogo-SP, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 18.71,
        "hero_label": "Botafogo-SP",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Ava\u00ed odds lengthened \u2191 +35.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Ava\u00ed has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 35.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Botafogo-SP.",
          "note": "Drift away from Ava\u00ed \u2014 odds lengthened by 35.7% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Botafogo-SP.",
            "However, Ava\u00ed has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 35.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Ava\u00ed \u2014 odds lengthened by 35.7% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Botafogo-SP more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "At the same time, Ava\u00ed has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 35.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (10/13) supports the current market view on Ava\u00ed."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 18.71,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 50.0 pp (at 69.2%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 50.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 69.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "strong",
          "largest_gap_label": "Botafogo-SP",
          "largest_gap_pp": 18.7,
          "lead": "The model rates Botafogo-SP considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "strong",
          "max_gap_pp": 18.7,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 18.71,
            "edge_pp": 18.71,
            "fair_prob_pct": 69.21,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Botafogo-SP",
            "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -9.9,
            "edge_pp": -9.9,
            "fair_prob_pct": 19.18,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.08,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -8.81,
            "edge_pp": -8.81,
            "fair_prob_pct": 11.61,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Ava\u00ed",
            "market_prob_pct": 20.42,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Ava\u00ed \u2014 odds lengthened by 35.7% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Botafogo-SP (50.5%).",
          "However, Ava\u00ed has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +35.7%, 10/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Botafogo-SP, Market \u2192 Botafogo-SP, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ava\u00ed.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
        "closing_odds": 1.9,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
        "entry_odds": 1.9,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 35.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 29.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 28.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 25.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 17.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 9.4
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 9.3
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 5,
            "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.8
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 32,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 9,
            "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.3
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.75,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +35.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 35.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 143h 30m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "10/13 books synchronized on Ava\u00ed (35.7% steam, score 92) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 35.7,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "4.75",
            "4.12",
            "3.50"
          ],
          "display": "4.75 \u2192 3.38 \u2192 4.75",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 143h 30m",
          "pick_team": "Ava\u00ed",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.75"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.38"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.75"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            3.5,
            4.7,
            4.75
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.7 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "3.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "4.75"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.75"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Ava\u00ed \u2191 +35.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Ava\u00ed",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Ava\u00ed \u2191 +35.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "current_odds": 4.75,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +35.7%",
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "pick_team": "Ava\u00ed",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_team_name": "Ava\u00ed",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 18.7,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_id": 145,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/145.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Ava\u00ed",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1520751,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 2618,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2618.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Botafogo-SP",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 72,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B de Brasil",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-07-06 22:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Ribeirao Preto",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Santa Cruz"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1735,
            "best_odd": 4.7,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0153,
            "ev": -0.1124,
            "implied_prob": 0.2042,
            "model_prob": 0.1159,
            "p_final": 0.1888
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2553,
            "best_odd": 3.3,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0254,
            "ev": -0.1241,
            "implied_prob": 0.2908,
            "model_prob": 0.1915,
            "p_final": 0.2654
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4311,
            "best_odd": 1.9,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0809,
            "ev": 0.1133,
            "implied_prob": 0.505,
            "model_prob": 0.6927,
            "p_final": 0.5859
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.35,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.1"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1133,
      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
        ],
        "score": 7.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
          "draw_prob": 0.1915,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6927,
          "over_prob": 0.65,
          "total_xg": 3.35,
          "under_prob": 0.349,
          "xg_diff": 1.49
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0809,
          "ev": 0.1133,
          "implied_prob": 0.505,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6927,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Botafogo-SP"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.562,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.65,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1520751,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1133,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1159,
        "draw": 0.1915,
        "home": 0.6927
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Ava\u00ed",
        "home": "Botafogo-SP"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.094179,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1133,
        "implied_prob": 0.505,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.6927,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Botafogo-SP",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1520751,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-06T21:59:06.853540+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}