Predicciones / Fútbol / Corea del Sur. K3 League / Dangjin Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP

Auditoría de predicción: Dangjin Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Oct 04, 2026 - 05:00
2 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 52%

AI correctly predicted the Gyeongju HNP win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción F

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
  • 1X2 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP ✔ Correcto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto

Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Gyeongju HNP higher than the statistical model.

Mayor brecha de probabilidad: Gyeongju HNP -7.6 pp

Resultado Modelo Mercado de cierre Diferencia Señal
Dangjin Citizen 34.7% 30.1% +4.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.6% +3.0 pp Aligned
Gyeongju HNP 35.6% 43.2% -7.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Gyeongju HNP's win probability at 43.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Gyeongju HNP win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Gyeongju HNP. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gyeongju HNP higher (43.2% vs model 35.6%, 7.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gyeongju HNP win 2–3).

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

  1. Oct 04, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dangjin Citizen 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Gyeongju HNP 35.6%
    • xG · Dangjin Citizen 1.29 — Gyeongju HNP 1.31
  2. Oct 04, 2026 · 04:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dangjin Citizen 3.04 · Draw 3.44 · Gyeongju HNP 2.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Dangjin Citizen 30.1% · Draw 26.6% · Gyeongju HNP 43.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 04, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dangjin Citizen 3.04 · Draw 3.44 · Gyeongju HNP 2.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Dangjin Citizen 30.1% · Draw 26.6% · Gyeongju HNP 43.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 04, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gyeongju HNP win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Observe
Decisión histórica No Primary Bet
Resultado Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidencia ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11657029

Closing Odds 2.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gyeongju HNP win · Dangjin Citizen 2–3 Gyeongju HNP
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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            "decision": "Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": true,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gyeongju HNP at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.2%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Gyeongju HNP as the value side (35.6%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 7.6,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Gyeongju HNP",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "82 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "86 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+15.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gyeongju HNP).",
            "Decision strength: 5.8/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 82,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.1481,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.12,
            "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
            "disagreement_level": "moderate",
            "implied_prob": 0.4322,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.2455,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": -3.0,
            "reasons": [
              "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "flat",
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "separation_score": -20,
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.02
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "7/8",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.875,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 75,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 21.2,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 8.8,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 82,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 7.58,
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "max_gap_pp": 7.58,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.31,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": -3.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.29,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.31,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Dangjin Citizen",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 86,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 62,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 35,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 62,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gyeongju HNP).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 7.6,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gyeongju HNP)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 7.6,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gyeongju HNP)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.15,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.15,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate",
            "decision_strength": 5.8,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 86,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gyeongju HNP at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.2%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Gyeongju HNP as the value side (35.6%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 7.6,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Gyeongju HNP",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "82 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "86 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+15.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gyeongju HNP).",
              "Decision strength: 5.8/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 82,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.1481,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.12,
              "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
              "disagreement_level": "moderate",
              "implied_prob": 0.4322,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3559,
              "raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.2455,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": -3.0,
              "reasons": [
                "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "flat",
                "block_value_alert": true,
                "separation_score": -20,
                "strength_delta": -2.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.02
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Dangjin Citizen 1.29 xG vs Gyeongju HNP 1.31 \u2192 Gyeongju HNP 35.6%",
            "Market: Gyeongju HNP ~43.2% implied",
            "Market Steam: Dangjin Citizen +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gyeongju HNP with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.56,
          "fair_prob": 34.7,
          "label": "Dangjin Citizen",
          "market_prob": 30.14,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.01,
          "fair_prob": 29.65,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 26.64,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.58,
          "fair_prob": 35.64,
          "label": "Gyeongju HNP",
          "market_prob": 43.22,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.68,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 56.88,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.68,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 43.12,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.88,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 60.38,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.88,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 39.62,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -7.58,
        "fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Gyeongju HNP",
        "market_prob_pct": 43.22,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Dangjin Citizen"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gyeongju HNP\u0027s win probability at 43.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 7.58,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Gyeongju HNP",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 43.2,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -7.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -7.6,
            "label": "Moderate",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 82,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "Gyeongju HNP \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 86,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 62,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 35,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 62,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Dangjin Citizen 1.29 xG vs Gyeongju HNP 1.31 \u2192 Gyeongju HNP 35.6%",
              "Market: Gyeongju HNP ~43.2% implied",
              "Market Steam: Dangjin Citizen +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gyeongju HNP with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -7.58,
        "hero_label": "Gyeongju HNP",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Gyeongju HNP. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "The market shows a modest preference for Gyeongju HNP relative to the current fair estimate.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Gyeongju HNP. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Gyeongju HNP above the current fair estimate.",
            "Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 7.58,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "moderate",
          "largest_gap_label": "Gyeongju HNP",
          "largest_gap_pp": -7.6,
          "lead": "The closing market prices Gyeongju HNP higher than the statistical model.",
          "level": "moderate",
          "max_gap_pp": 7.6,
          "title": "Moderate Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 4.56,
            "edge_pp": 4.56,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Dangjin Citizen",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.14,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 3.01,
            "edge_pp": 3.01,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.64,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -7.58,
            "edge_pp": -7.58,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Gyeongju HNP",
            "market_prob_pct": 43.22,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Gyeongju HNP relative to the current fair estimate.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Gyeongju HNP (43.2%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gyeongju HNP, Market \u2192 Gyeongju HNP, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 47.17,
        "closing_odds": 2.12,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 47.17,
        "entry_odds": 2.12,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "7/8",
        "current_odds": 2.7,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "pick_team": "Dangjin Citizen",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_team_name": "Dangjin Citizen",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 7.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "gyeongju-hnp",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Gyeongju HNP",
      "away_team_id": 7083,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7083.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Gyeongju HNP",
      "away_team_public_id": "0lbiHpnm2pAGRt",
      "away_team_slug": "gyeongju-hnp",
      "country_code": "KR",
      "country_display_name": "South-Korea",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/kr.svg",
      "country_id": 144,
      "country_name": "South-Korea",
      "fixture_id": 1520565,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "South-Korea",
      "home_team_display_name": "Dangjin Citizen",
      "home_team_id": 18653,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18653.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Dangjin Citizen",
      "home_team_public_id": "2u8WLW97Ql9p5c",
      "home_team_slug": "dangjin-citizen",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "dangjin-citizen",
      "league_country": "South-Korea",
      "league_country_display": "South-Korea",
      "league_display_name": "K3 League",
      "league_id": 295,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/295.webp",
      "league_name": "K3 League",
      "league_public_id": "21krHgODA2FZz0",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-10-04 05:00:00",
      "public_id": "5khjkeLf39ug6C",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3985,
            "best_odd": 2.12,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0304,
            "ev": -0.1481,
            "implied_prob": 0.4322,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4322,
              "draw": 0.2664,
              "home": 0.3014
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "p_final": 0.4018
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2863,
            "best_odd": 3.44,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0087,
            "ev": -0.0537,
            "implied_prob": 0.2664,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4322,
              "draw": 0.2664,
              "home": 0.3014
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2968,
            "p_final": 0.2751
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2794,
            "best_odd": 3.04,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0128,
            "ev": -0.0447,
            "implied_prob": 0.3014,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4322,
              "draw": 0.2664,
              "home": 0.3014
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3473,
            "p_final": 0.3142
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.12,
            "edge": -0.1158,
            "ev": -0.2454,
            "implied_prob": 0.4717,
            "model_prob": 0.3559
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.44,
            "edge": 0.0061,
            "ev": 0.0209,
            "implied_prob": 0.2907,
            "model_prob": 0.2968
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 3.04,
            "edge": 0.0183,
            "ev": 0.0557,
            "implied_prob": 0.3289,
            "model_prob": 0.3473
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.165,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2269,
          "best_no_odd": 2.4,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.55,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.0588,
          "edge_yes": -0.0588,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.092,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0601,
          "ev_yes": -0.1552,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1005,
          "implied_no": 0.3962,
          "implied_yes": 0.6038,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.165,
              "best_odd": 2.3,
              "edge": 0.0092,
              "ev": -0.0601,
              "implied_prob": 0.3995,
              "model_prob": 0.455,
              "p_final": 0.4086
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2269,
              "best_odd": 1.53,
              "edge": -0.0126,
              "ev": -0.1005,
              "implied_prob": 0.6005,
              "model_prob": 0.545,
              "p_final": 0.5879
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "p_final_no": 0.4086,
          "p_final_yes": 0.5879,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.215,
          "alpha_under": 0.1955,
          "best_over_odd": 1.68,
          "best_under_odd": 2.22,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.625,
          "consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
          "edge_over": -0.0868,
          "edge_under": 0.0868,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1902,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1051,
          "ev_under": 0.15,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0377,
          "implied_over": 0.5688,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.5695,
          "implied_under": 0.4312,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.4305,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.215,
              "best_odd": 1.625,
              "edge": -0.0188,
              "ev": -0.1051,
              "implied_prob": 0.5695,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5507
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1955,
              "best_odd": 2.15,
              "edge": 0.0171,
              "ev": -0.0377,
              "implied_prob": 0.4305,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4476
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.5507,
          "p_final_under": 0.4476,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.15,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.15,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.15,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 5.8,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 5.8,
        "score_pre_penalty": 7.8
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 7.6,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gyeongju HNP)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.15,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.15,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate",
        "decision_strength": 5.8,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 86,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gyeongju HNP at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.2%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Gyeongju HNP as the value side (35.6%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 7.6,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Gyeongju HNP",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "82 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "86 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+15.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gyeongju HNP).",
          "Decision strength: 5.8/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 82,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.1481,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.12,
          "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
          "disagreement_level": "moderate",
          "implied_prob": 0.4322,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.2455,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": true,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": -3.0,
          "reasons": [
            "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -2.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "flat",
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "separation_score": -20,
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.02
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2968,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.02
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.12,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0304,
          "ev": -0.1481,
          "implied_prob": 0.4322,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Gyeongju HNP"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.165,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.3,
            "edge": 0.0092,
            "market_prob": 0.3995,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.455,
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.165,
              "best_odd": 2.3,
              "edge": 0.0092,
              "ev": -0.0601,
              "implied_prob": 0.3995,
              "model_prob": 0.455,
              "p_final": 0.4086
            },
            "p_final": 0.4086,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
            "value_side": "no",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2269,
              "best_odd": 1.53,
              "edge": -0.0126,
              "ev": -0.1005,
              "implied_prob": 0.6005,
              "model_prob": 0.545,
              "p_final": 0.5879
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0588,
          "ev": 0.092,
          "implied_prob": 0.3962,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1955,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.15,
            "edge": 0.0171,
            "market_prob": 0.4305,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.215,
              "best_odd": 1.625,
              "edge": -0.0188,
              "ev": -0.1051,
              "implied_prob": 0.5695,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5507
            },
            "p_final": 0.4476,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0377,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1955,
              "best_odd": 2.15,
              "edge": 0.0171,
              "ev": -0.0377,
              "implied_prob": 0.4305,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4476
            },
            "value_side": "under"
          },
          "edge": 0.0868,
          "ev": 0.15,
          "implied_prob": 0.4312,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1520565,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.15,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3559,
        "draw": 0.2968,
        "home": 0.3473
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Gyeongju HNP",
        "home": "Dangjin Citizen"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.05439,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.15,
        "implied_prob": 0.4312,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.1481,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.12,
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "implied_prob": 0.4322,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.3559,
        "raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.2455,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1520565,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T04:59:07.540679+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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K3 League K3 League — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 38
4 Busan Transportation 22 10 7 5 37
5 Gyeongju HNP 22 8 8 6 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 28
9 Gangneung City 22 7 6 9 27
10 Changwon City 22 6 8 8 26
11 Yeoju Sejong 22 6 7 9 25
12 Mokpo City 22 4 9 9 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 17
14 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 1 7 14 10
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Dangjin Citizen 22 44 36 +8 31
2 Busan Transportation 22 39 26 +13 37
3 Chuncheon 22 39 35 +4 29
4 Pocheon 22 38 19 +19 45
5 Siheung Citizen 22 35 19 +16 52
6 Gyeongju HNP 22 32 29 +3 32
7 Daejeon Korail 22 31 17 +14 38
8 Yangpyeong 22 27 43 -16 17
9 Changwon City 22 24 27 -3 26
10 Yeoju Sejong 22 24 28 -4 25
11 Ulsan Citizen 22 23 24 -1 28
12 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 22 49 -27 10
13 Gangneung City 22 20 30 -10 27
14 Mokpo City 22 19 35 -16 21
K3 League Corea del Sur. K3 League Predicciones