The model missed the final outcome (Emelec win 2–1).
The model had projected Leones del Norte at 35.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Leones del Norte Emelec ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 32.3% | 53.6% | -21.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 31.9% | 27.8% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Leones del Norte | 35.8% | 18.6% | +17.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Emelec's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.3%, a difference of 21.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Emelec win 2–1.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Leones del Norte by 21.3 percentage points (57.1% vs model 35.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Emelec 32.4% · Draw 31.8% · Leones del Norte 35.8%
- xG · Emelec 1.11 — Leones del Norte 1.18
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Emelec 1.77 · Draw 3.42 · Leones del Norte 5.11
- Implied 1X2 · Emelec 53.6% · Draw 27.8% · Leones del Norte 18.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Emelec 1.77 · Draw 3.42 · Leones del Norte 5.11
- Implied 1X2 · Emelec 53.6% · Draw 27.8% · Leones del Norte 18.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Emelec win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
52/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.77
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Emelec win · Emelec 2–1 Leones del Norte
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"correct_score": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 68.1
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 83.2,
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"model_prob": 35.8,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 18.58,
"draw": 27.77,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-30 22:59:49",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-30 22:30:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Emelec",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "0-0",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.11,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0802,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 8.0,
"text": "+8.0%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Leones del Norte",
"sort_key": 10222.18,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
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"ev_over": null,
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"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 59.9,
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
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},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
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"ev_yes": null,
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"id": "btts",
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"value_side": "no",
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"alert_team": "Leones del Norte",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 21.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.32,
"hero_label": "Emelec",
"market_prob_pct": 18.6,
"market_team": "Emelec",
"model_prob_pct": 35.8,
"model_team": "Leones del Norte",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0802,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8306,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leones del Norte at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leones del Norte as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leones del Norte",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Leones del Norte \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +83% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519465 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +83% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0802,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.11,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3582,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19569471624266144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+83.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -12.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "1/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.07692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.32,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.11,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.18,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.11 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"steam_team": "Leones del Norte",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0802,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8306,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leones del Norte at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leones del Norte as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leones del Norte",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Leones del Norte \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +83% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519465 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +83% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0802,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.11,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3582,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19569471624266144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+83.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -12.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Emelec 1.11 xG vs Leones del Norte 1.18 \u2192 Leones del Norte 35.8%",
"Market: Emelec ~18.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Leones del Norte \u2193 -9.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Leones del Norte, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -21.32,
"fair_prob": 32.33,
"label": "Emelec",
"market_prob": 53.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.1,
"fair_prob": 31.87,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.22,
"fair_prob": 35.8,
"label": "Leones del Norte",
"market_prob": 18.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 40.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 59.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -21.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.33,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Emelec",
"market_prob_pct": 53.65,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Leones del Norte"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Emelec\u0027s win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.3%, a difference of 21.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 21.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Leones del Norte",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 18.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Leones del Norte \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+17.2 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Emelec 1.11 xG vs Leones del Norte 1.18 \u2192 Leones del Norte 35.8%",
"Market: Emelec ~18.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Leones del Norte \u2193 -9.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Leones del Norte, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.32,
"hero_label": "Emelec",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Leones del Norte odds shortened \u2193 -9.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.5 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.5,
"max_prob_pct": 35.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Emelec",
"largest_gap_pp": -21.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Emelec higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 21.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -21.32,
"edge_pp": -21.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.33,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Emelec",
"market_prob_pct": 53.65,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.1,
"edge_pp": 4.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.87,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.77,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 17.22,
"edge_pp": 17.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Leones del Norte",
"market_prob_pct": 18.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Emelec (18.6%).",
"Leones del Norte has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -9.5%, 1/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Leones del Norte, Market \u2192 Emelec, Recent sharp money \u2192 Leones del Norte.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.5,
"closing_odds": 1.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.5,
"entry_odds": 1.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.5
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "1/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 144h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Leones del Norte (9.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.25",
"5.00",
"4.75"
],
"display": "5.25 \u2192 3.50 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 144h 18m",
"pick_team": "Leones del Norte",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
5.11,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,5.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Leones del Norte",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Leones del Norte",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/13",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Leones del Norte",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Leones del Norte",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 21.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Leones del Norte",
"away_team_id": 19034,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19034.webp",
"away_team_name": "Leones del Norte",
"away_team_public_id": "3JZjv2CmttMH5Q",
"away_team_slug": "leones-del-norte",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519465,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Emelec",
"home_team_id": 1148,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1148.webp",
"home_team_name": "Emelec",
"home_team_public_id": "0Shp5URlSLJGEf",
"home_team_slug": "emelec",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro",
"league_public_id": "5o6Mh46noZ9yF5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-30 23:00:00",
"public_id": "2vDatASDtttzoS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Guayaquil",
"venue_name": "Estadio George Capwell"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"best_odd": 5.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0256,
"ev": 0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.1858,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1858,
"draw": 0.2777,
"home": 0.5365
},
"model_prob": 0.3582,
"p_final": 0.2114
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2817,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0112,
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1858,
"draw": 0.2777,
"home": 0.5365
},
"model_prob": 0.3183,
"p_final": 0.2891
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4083,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.087,
"ev": -0.2043,
"implied_prob": 0.5365,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1858,
"draw": 0.2777,
"home": 0.5365
},
"model_prob": 0.3235,
"p_final": 0.4495
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.11,
"edge": 0.1625,
"ev": 0.8306,
"implied_prob": 0.1957,
"model_prob": 0.3582
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0886,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.3183
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.2415,
"ev": -0.4275,
"implied_prob": 0.565,
"model_prob": 0.3235
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.29,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0802,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8306,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0802,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0802,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8306,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leones del Norte at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leones del Norte as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leones del Norte",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Leones del Norte \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +83% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519465 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Leones del Norte), but pricing still diverges by 21.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +83% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0802,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.11,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3582,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19569471624266144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+83.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -12.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.482,
"draw_prob": 0.3183,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3582,
"over_prob": 0.401,
"total_xg": 2.29,
"under_prob": 0.599,
"xg_diff": 0.07
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.11,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0256,
"ev": 0.0802,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1858,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3582,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Leones del Norte"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1519465,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0802,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3582,
"draw": 0.3183,
"home": 0.3235
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Leones del Norte",
"home": "Emelec"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.0316,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.1858,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3582,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Leones del Norte",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0802,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.11,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3582,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19569471624266144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+83.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519465,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-30T22:59:52.372270+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Pro — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Orense SC | 30 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 5 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 3.5 | 1.6 | +1.9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 5 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 15 | Orense SC | 30 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -2.3 | 33 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
