AI correctly predicted the Mushuc Runa SC win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 3-0, 1-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC | 68.2% | 48.5% | +19.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 18.2% | 27.6% | -9.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Orense SC | 13.6% | 23.9% | -10.4 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Mushuc Runa SC's win probability at 68.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 48.5%, a difference of 19.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Mushuc Runa SC win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Mushuc Runa SC.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.81) — 3 goals materialised
- Mushuc Runa SC attacking xG significantly stronger (2.65 vs 1.16)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mushuc Runa SC more conservatively (48.4% vs model 68.2%, 19.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mushuc Runa SC win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mushuc Runa SC 68.2% · Draw 18.2% · Orense SC 13.6%
- xG · Mushuc Runa SC 2.65 — Orense SC 1.16
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mushuc Runa SC 1.96 · Draw 3.44 · Orense SC 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Mushuc Runa SC 48.5% · Draw 27.6% · Orense SC 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mushuc Runa SC 1.96 · Draw 3.44 · Orense SC 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Mushuc Runa SC 48.5% · Draw 27.6% · Orense SC 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mushuc Runa SC win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
41/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (96%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
1/100
Betting Confidence
32/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.96
AI Fair Odds
1.47
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Mushuc Runa SC win · Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 68.2%
- Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "13/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
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},
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"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
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"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Mushuc Runa SC), but pricing still diverges by 19.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 96% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
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"deviation_pct": 96.3,
"reasons": [
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],
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}
},
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"signals": [
{
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"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
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"label": "Market has already priced much of the edge",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
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},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (20 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (96%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
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"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
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},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.77,
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"model_calibration": {
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"deviation_pct": 96.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.65,
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.65,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.65 \u00b7 Away xG 1.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +96%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"steam_team": "Orense SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Mushuc Runa SC), but pricing still diverges by 19.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Mushuc Runa SC), but pricing still diverges by 19.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.113,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3359,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Mushuc Runa SC), but pricing still diverges by 19.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 96% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.113,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6816,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3359,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 96.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 96% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mushuc Runa SC 2.65 xG vs Orense SC 1.16 \u2192 Mushuc Runa SC 68.2%",
"Market: Mushuc Runa SC ~48.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Orense SC odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Mushuc Runa SC, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 19.77,
"fair_prob": 68.23,
"label": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"market_prob": 48.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.41,
"fair_prob": 18.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.37,
"fair_prob": 13.56,
"label": "Orense SC",
"market_prob": 23.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 73.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 64.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 19.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 68.23,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.46,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Orense SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Mushuc Runa SC\u0027s win probability at 68.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 48.5%, a difference of 19.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 19.77,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.7,
"model_prob_pct": 68.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Mushuc Runa SC \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+19.7 pp).",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mushuc Runa SC 2.65 xG vs Orense SC 1.16 \u2192 Mushuc Runa SC 68.2%",
"Market: Mushuc Runa SC ~48.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Orense SC odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Mushuc Runa SC, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 19.77,
"hero_label": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Orense SC odds lengthened \u2191 +6.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Orense SC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Mushuc Runa SC.",
"note": "Drift away from Orense SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Mushuc Runa SC.",
"However, Orense SC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Orense SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Mushuc Runa SC more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Orense SC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/13) supports the current market view on Orense SC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.77,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 50.0 pp (at 68.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 50.0,
"max_prob_pct": 68.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"largest_gap_pp": 19.8,
"lead": "The model rates Mushuc Runa SC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 19.77,
"edge_pp": 19.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 68.23,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.41,
"edge_pp": -9.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.37,
"edge_pp": -10.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 13.56,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Orense SC",
"market_prob_pct": 23.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Orense SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mushuc Runa SC (48.5%).",
"However, Orense SC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.1%, 13/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Mushuc Runa SC \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+19.7 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.02,
"closing_odds": 1.96,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.02,
"entry_odds": 1.96,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Orense SC (6.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.97",
"3.63",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.65 \u2192 2.83 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 43m",
"pick_team": "Orense SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.97,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.6",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 13/13 sportsbooks on Orense SC",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Orense SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Orense SC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Orense SC",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Orense SC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Orense SC",
"away_team_id": 1992,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1992.webp",
"away_team_name": "Orense SC",
"away_team_slug": "orense-sc",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519414,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"home_team_id": 1162,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1162.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"home_team_slug": "mushuc-runa-sc",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Ecuador Liga Pro",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Ecuador Liga Pro",
"league_name_canonical": "Liga Pro",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-20 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ambato",
"venue_name": "Estadio Bellavista"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2535,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1541,
"implied_prob": 0.2393,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2393,
"draw": 0.2761,
"home": 0.4846
},
"model_prob": 0.1359,
"p_final": 0.2131
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2579,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1332,
"implied_prob": 0.2761,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2393,
"draw": 0.2761,
"home": 0.4846
},
"model_prob": 0.1825,
"p_final": 0.252
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4228,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0833,
"ev": 0.113,
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2393,
"draw": 0.2761,
"home": 0.4846
},
"model_prob": 0.6816,
"p_final": 0.5679
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": -0.1159,
"ev": -0.4603,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.1359
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": -0.1082,
"ev": -0.3722,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.1825
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.1714,
"ev": 0.3359,
"implied_prob": 0.5102,
"model_prob": 0.6816
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.81,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.113,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3359,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.113,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 96% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 96% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Mushuc Runa SC), but pricing still diverges by 19.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.113,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3359,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 19.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Mushuc Runa SC), but pricing still diverges by 19.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 96% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.113,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6816,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3359,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 96.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 96% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.647,
"draw_prob": 0.1825,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6816,
"over_prob": 0.733,
"total_xg": 3.81,
"under_prob": 0.267,
"xg_diff": 1.49
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0833,
"ev": 0.113,
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6816,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mushuc Runa SC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.647,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.733,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1519414,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.113,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1359,
"draw": 0.1825,
"home": 0.6816
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Orense SC",
"home": "Mushuc Runa SC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.092425,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.113,
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6816,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mushuc Runa SC",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.113,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6816,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3359,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519414,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-20T18:59:13.382023+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Pro — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Orense SC | 30 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 5 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 3.5 | 1.6 | +1.9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 5 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 15 | Orense SC | 30 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -2.3 | 33 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
