The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Pacific FC at 60.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Pacific FC Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-1, 2-3 3-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 20.3% | 40.5% | -20.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 19.5% | 23.7% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Pacific FC | 60.2% | 35.8% | +24.4 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Pacific FC's win probability at 60.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.8%, a difference of 24.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 3–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.15) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Pacific FC; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Pacific FC by 24.4 percentage points (35.8% vs model 60.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · York United 20.3% · Draw 19.5% · Pacific FC 60.2%
- xG · York United 1.53 — Pacific FC 2.62
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · York United 2.26 · Draw 3.87 · Pacific FC 2.56
- Implied 1X2 · York United 40.5% · Draw 23.7% · Pacific FC 35.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · York United 2.26 · Draw 3.87 · Pacific FC 2.56
- Implied 1X2 · York United 40.5% · Draw 23.7% · Pacific FC 35.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
39/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (94%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
11/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.56
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · York United 3–3 Pacific FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
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"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0944,
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{
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"model_prob": 0.735,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
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"edge": -0.0214,
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"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": -0.0463,
"implied_prob": 0.6517,
"model_prob": 0.735,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2712,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.1,
"text": "-27.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0657,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+6.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 26.5,
"sort_key": 10059.13,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 8.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 24.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 24.37,
"hero_label": "Pacific FC",
"market_prob_pct": 35.8,
"market_team": "York United",
"model_prob_pct": 60.2,
"model_team": "Pacific FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5407,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 11,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pacific FC at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pacific FC as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pacific FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Pacific FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517343 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "11 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 40,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0944,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6018,
"raw_edge_display": "+24.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5406,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 94.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 94% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.09"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.09
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "2/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (24 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (94%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 40,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 24.37,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 24.37,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.62,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 94.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.53,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.62,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.53 \u00b7 Away xG 2.62 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +94%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "York United",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5407,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 11,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pacific FC at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pacific FC as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pacific FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Pacific FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517343 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "11 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 40,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0944,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6018,
"raw_edge_display": "+24.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5406,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 94.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 94% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.09"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.09
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: York United 1.53 xG vs Pacific FC 2.62 \u2192 Pacific FC 60.2%",
"Market: York United ~35.8% implied",
"Market Steam: York United +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Pacific FC, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -20.22,
"fair_prob": 20.32,
"label": "York United",
"market_prob": 40.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob": 19.53,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.37,
"fair_prob": 60.16,
"label": "Pacific FC",
"market_prob": 35.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.14,
"fair_prob": 78.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.14,
"fair_prob": 21.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.42,
"fair_prob": 73.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.42,
"fair_prob": 26.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 24.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.16,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Pacific FC",
"market_prob_pct": 35.79,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "York United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Pacific FC\u0027s win probability at 60.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 35.8%, a difference of 24.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 24.37,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Pacific FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+24.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 24.4,
"model_prob_pct": 60.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+24.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 40,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: York United 1.53 xG vs Pacific FC 2.62 \u2192 Pacific FC 60.2%",
"Market: York United ~35.8% implied",
"Market Steam: York United +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Pacific FC, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 24.37,
"hero_label": "Pacific FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 24.37,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 39.8 pp (at 60.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 39.8,
"max_prob_pct": 60.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Pacific FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 24.4,
"lead": "The model rates Pacific FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 24.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -20.22,
"edge_pp": -20.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "York United",
"market_prob_pct": 40.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.14,
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.53,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 24.37,
"edge_pp": 24.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.16,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pacific FC",
"market_prob_pct": 35.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers York United (35.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Pacific FC, Market \u2192 York United, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.06,
"closing_odds": 2.56,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.06,
"entry_odds": 2.56,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/14",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "York United",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "York United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 24.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pacific-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pacific FC",
"away_team_id": 2622,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2622.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pacific FC",
"away_team_public_id": "1nES0EmteVzENY",
"away_team_slug": "pacific-fc",
"country_code": "CA",
"country_display_name": "Canada",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ca.svg",
"country_id": 30,
"country_name": "Canada",
"fixture_id": 1517343,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Canada",
"home_team_display_name": "York United",
"home_team_id": 2623,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2623.webp",
"home_team_name": "York United",
"home_team_public_id": "4hZafWis2CJ9Gq",
"home_team_slug": "york-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "york-united",
"league_country": "Canada",
"league_country_display": "Canada",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier Canadiense",
"league_id": 479,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/479.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier Canadiense",
"league_public_id": "5erUlSPjbQk9ju",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 23:30:00",
"public_id": "5tWpFdTZLZQcUO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "York Lions Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2853,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0696,
"ev": 0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3579,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.4054
},
"model_prob": 0.6018,
"p_final": 0.4275
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2813,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1291,
"implied_prob": 0.2367,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3579,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.4054
},
"model_prob": 0.1951,
"p_final": 0.225
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3134,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0634,
"ev": -0.2272,
"implied_prob": 0.4054,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3579,
"draw": 0.2367,
"home": 0.4054
},
"model_prob": 0.2031,
"p_final": 0.342
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.2112,
"ev": 0.5407,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.6018
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": -0.0633,
"ev": -0.2449,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.1951
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": -0.2394,
"ev": -0.5411,
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"model_prob": 0.2031
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2573,
"alpha_yes": 0.3538,
"best_no_odd": 2.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0842,
"edge_yes": 0.0842,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2712,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1437,
"ev_yes": 0.0657,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0463,
"implied_no": 0.3492,
"implied_yes": 0.6508,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2573,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1437,
"implied_prob": 0.3483,
"model_prob": 0.265,
"p_final": 0.3268
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3538,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": -0.0463,
"implied_prob": 0.6517,
"model_prob": 0.735,
"p_final": 0.6812
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.3268,
"p_final_yes": 0.6812,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3132,
"alpha_under": 0.2278,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.45,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.5,
"edge_over": 0.1514,
"edge_under": -0.1514,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.198,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0141,
"ev_under": -0.4358,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1678,
"implied_over": 0.6316,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6329,
"implied_under": 0.3684,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3671,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3132,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": 0.047,
"ev": -0.0141,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.783,
"p_final": 0.6799
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2278,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0342,
"ev": -0.1678,
"implied_prob": 0.3671,
"model_prob": 0.217,
"p_final": 0.3329
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6799,
"p_final_under": 0.3329,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.15,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5407,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.198,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.5,
"score_before_guard": 7.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.198,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5407,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 11,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pacific FC at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pacific FC as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 24.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pacific FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Pacific FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.97 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517343 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.97 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "11 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced York United, but the model still strongly favours Pacific FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 40,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0944,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6018,
"raw_edge_display": "+24.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5406,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 94.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 94% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.09"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.09
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.735,
"draw_prob": 0.1951,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6018,
"over_prob": 0.783,
"total_xg": 4.15,
"under_prob": 0.217,
"xg_diff": 1.09
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0696,
"ev": 0.0944,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6018,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Pacific FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3538,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.4,
"edge": 0.0295,
"market_prob": 0.6517,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.735,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2573,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1437,
"implied_prob": 0.3483,
"model_prob": 0.265,
"p_final": 0.3268
},
"p_final": 0.6812,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0463,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3538,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": -0.0463,
"implied_prob": 0.6517,
"model_prob": 0.735,
"p_final": 0.6812
}
},
"edge": 0.0842,
"ev": 0.0657,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6508,
"model_prob": 0.735,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3132,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.45,
"edge": 0.047,
"market_prob": 0.6329,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.783,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3132,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": 0.047,
"ev": -0.0141,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.783,
"p_final": 0.6799
},
"p_final": 0.6799,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0141,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2278,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0342,
"ev": -0.1678,
"implied_prob": 0.3671,
"model_prob": 0.217,
"p_final": 0.3329
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1514,
"ev": 0.198,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6316,
"model_prob": 0.783,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1517343,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.198,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.6018,
"draw": 0.1951,
"home": 0.2031
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pacific FC",
"home": "York United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.155034,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.198,
"implied_prob": 0.6316,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.783,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0944,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6018,
"raw_edge_display": "+24.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5406,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1517343,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T23:29:34.918672+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier Canadiense — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 2 | Forge FC | 21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 45 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 6 | York United | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 22 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 21 | 41 | 12 | +29 | 49 |
| 2 | Atlético Ottawa | 22 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 34 |
| 3 | Forge FC | 21 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 45 |
| 4 | HFX Wanderers FC | 22 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 23 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 22 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 30 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 21 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 22 |
| 7 | York United | 20 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 23 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 21 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 21 | 7.3 | 2.4 | +4.9 | 49 |
| 2 | Pacific FC | 21 | 12.1 | 9.3 | +2.8 | 10 |
| 3 | Forge FC | 21 | 8.3 | 6.8 | +1.5 | 45 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 22 | 6.4 | 5.8 | +0.6 | 30 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 21 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -0.2 | 22 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 22 | 9.0 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 23 |
| 7 | Atlético Ottawa | 22 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 8 | York United | 20 | 7.3 | 12.5 | -5.2 | 23 |
