AI correctly predicted the Ogre United win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Ogre United Ogre United ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 36.1% | 29.6% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.8% | +2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Super Nova | 34.2% | 43.5% | -9.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Super Nova's win probability at 43.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Ogre United win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Super Nova. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ogre United higher (45.4% vs model 36.1%, 9.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ogre United win 1–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ogre United 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Super Nova 34.2%
- xG · Ogre United 1.32 — Super Nova 1.28
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ogre United 3.13 · Draw 3.46 · Super Nova 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Ogre United 29.6% · Draw 26.8% · Super Nova 43.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ogre United 3.13 · Draw 3.46 · Super Nova 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Ogre United 29.6% · Draw 26.8% · Super Nova 43.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ogre United win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
18/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ogre United win · Ogre United 1–0 Super Nova
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ogre United at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.6%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Ogre United as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
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"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ogre United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1515927 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.31,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.31,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ogre United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1297,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ogre United at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ogre United as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ogre United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ogre United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1515927 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ogre United 1.32 xG vs Super Nova 1.28 \u2192 Ogre United 36.1%",
"Market: Super Nova ~29.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Ogre United +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ogre United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.47,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Ogre United",
"market_prob": 29.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.84,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.31,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Super Nova",
"market_prob": 43.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.85,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.85,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.4,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Super Nova",
"market_prob_pct": 43.55,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ogre United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Super Nova\u0027s win probability at 43.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.31,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ogre United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ogre United 1.32 xG vs Super Nova 1.28 \u2192 Ogre United 36.1%",
"Market: Super Nova ~29.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Ogre United +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ogre United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.31,
"hero_label": "Super Nova",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Super Nova. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Super Nova relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Super Nova. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Super Nova above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.31,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Super Nova",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Super Nova higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.47,
"edge_pp": 6.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ogre United",
"market_prob_pct": 29.64,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.84,
"edge_pp": 2.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.81,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.31,
"edge_pp": -9.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Super Nova",
"market_prob_pct": 43.55,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Super Nova relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Super Nova (29.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ogre United, Market \u2192 Super Nova, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Ogre United",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "Ogre United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "super-nova",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Super Nova",
"away_team_id": 4143,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4143.webp",
"away_team_name": "Super Nova",
"away_team_public_id": "0DEdtvECJIbzs0",
"away_team_slug": "super-nova",
"country_code": "LV",
"country_display_name": "Latvia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lv.svg",
"country_id": 90,
"country_name": "Latvia",
"fixture_id": 1515927,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Latvia",
"home_team_display_name": "Ogre United",
"home_team_id": 18936,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18936.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ogre United",
"home_team_public_id": "0XkUIt6PEm1gKq",
"home_team_slug": "ogre-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ogre-united",
"league_country": "Latvia",
"league_country_display": "Latvia",
"league_display_name": "Virsliga",
"league_id": 365,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/365.webp",
"league_name": "Virsliga",
"league_public_id": "1qWRWGDxziVi83",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 11:00:00",
"public_id": "2EyeQ2AQPJxXJ6",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ogre",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3871,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.1491,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4355,
"draw": 0.2681,
"home": 0.2964
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3995
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2871,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4355,
"draw": 0.2681,
"home": 0.2964
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2763
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0176,
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4355,
"draw": 0.2681,
"home": 0.2964
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3139
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1271,
"ev": -0.2707,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": 0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": 0.0414,
"ev": 0.1297,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1696,
"alpha_yes": 0.2332,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.034,
"edge_yes": -0.034,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0694,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0979,
"implied_no": 0.421,
"implied_yes": 0.579,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1696,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.423
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2332,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5746
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.423,
"p_final_yes": 0.5746,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2262,
"alpha_under": 0.2057,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.99,
"edge_over": -0.0585,
"edge_under": 0.0585,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0597,
"implied_over": 0.5405,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5393,
"implied_under": 0.4595,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4607,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5263,
"p_final_under": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1297,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1297,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ogre United at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ogre United as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ogre United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ogre United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.18 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1515927 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.18 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ogre United, but the model still strongly favours Ogre United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0176,
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ogre United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1696,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0065,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1696,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.423
},
"p_final": 0.423,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0694,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2332,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5746
}
},
"edge": 0.034,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.421,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"p_final": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0585,
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4595,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1515927,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Super Nova",
"home": "Ogre United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028065,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4595,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0176,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1296,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1515927,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T11:00:31.651468+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Virsliga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepāja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riga FC | 31 | 86 | 30 | +56 | 73 |
| 2 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 71 | 22 | +49 | 74 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 49 | 30 | +19 | 61 |
| 4 | Tukums | 31 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 24 |
| 5 | FK Liepāja | 31 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
| 6 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Ogre United | 31 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 18 |
| 9 | Super Nova | 30 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 35 |
| 10 | Grobiņa | 31 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 26 |
