The model missed the final outcome (LA Galaxy II win 1–3).
The model had projected San Jose Earthquakes II at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 San Jose Earthquakes II LA Galaxy II ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was LA Galaxy II win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · San Jose Earthquakes II 1.43 — LA Galaxy II 1.17
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result LA Galaxy II win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
LA Galaxy II win · San Jose Earthquakes II 1–3 LA Galaxy II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1274,
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"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
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"text": "-5.5%"
},
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.2%",
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"sort_key": 1786.325,
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},
{
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"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
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"alert_breadth": "1/4",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/4 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"alert_team": "LA Galaxy II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.27,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 43.5,
"market_team": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Jose Earthquakes II at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Jose Earthquakes II as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1274,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4349,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1519,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 72,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.27,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.17,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.43,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"steam_team": "LA Galaxy II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Jose Earthquakes II at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Jose Earthquakes II as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1274,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4349,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1519,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Jose Earthquakes II 1.43 xG vs LA Galaxy II 1.17 \u2192 San Jose Earthquakes II 41.4%",
"Market: San Jose Earthquakes II ~43.5% implied",
"Market Steam: LA Galaxy II \u2193 -19.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours San Jose Earthquakes II, but sharp money moved toward LA Galaxy II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"market_prob": 43.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.17,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "LA Galaxy II",
"market_prob": 32.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.44,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.44,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.98,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.98,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.09,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "LA Galaxy II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 72,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Jose Earthquakes II 1.43 xG vs LA Galaxy II 1.17 \u2192 San Jose Earthquakes II 41.4%",
"Market: San Jose Earthquakes II ~43.5% implied",
"Market Steam: LA Galaxy II \u2193 -19.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours San Jose Earthquakes II, but sharp money moved toward LA Galaxy II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.27,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "LA Galaxy II odds shortened \u2193 -19.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on LA Galaxy II, with odds shortening by 19.1%. Confirmation remains limited (1/4 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Buying interest on LA Galaxy II \u2014 odds shortened by 19.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on LA Galaxy II, with odds shortening by 19.1%. Confirmation remains limited (1/4 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on LA Galaxy II \u2014 odds shortened by 19.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, LA Galaxy II has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 19.1%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/4), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.3,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.09,
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"market_prob_pct": 43.49,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.27,
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.09,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.17,
"edge_pp": -3.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "LA Galaxy II",
"market_prob_pct": 32.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on LA Galaxy II \u2014 odds shortened by 19.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Jose Earthquakes II (43.5%).",
"However, LA Galaxy II has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -19.1%, 1/4).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 San Jose Earthquakes II, Market \u2192 San Jose Earthquakes II, Recent sharp money \u2192 LA Galaxy II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.03,
"closing_odds": 3.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.03,
"entry_odds": 3.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1
}
],
"books_total": 4,
"breadth_display": "1/4",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 1943h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on LA Galaxy II (19.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.08",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.90 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 1943h 48m",
"pick_team": "LA Galaxy II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "LA Galaxy II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward LA Galaxy II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "LA Galaxy II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/4",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "LA Galaxy II",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "LA Galaxy II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "la-galaxy-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "LA Galaxy II",
"away_team_id": 3997,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3997.webp",
"away_team_name": "LA Galaxy II",
"away_team_name_canonical": "LA Galaxy II",
"away_team_public_id": "2DYvlZeXLZeMx0",
"away_team_slug": "la-galaxy-ii",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1513169,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"home_team_id": 18816,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18816.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"home_team_name_canonical": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"home_team_public_id": "4WrD2uWeFl1t7F",
"home_team_slug": "san-jose-earthquakes-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "san-jose-earthquakes-ii",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_id": 909,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/909.webp",
"league_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_public_id": "3CwVqdBnoU3vAe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-10 20:00:00",
"public_id": "2jQ8SM7uXrMnHk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "PayPal Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4288,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1456,
"implied_prob": 0.3242,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3242,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.4349
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.3107
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2763,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.2409,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3242,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.4349
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2555
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4357,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1274,
"implied_prob": 0.4349,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3242,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.4349
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.4256
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0709,
"ev": -0.195,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": 0.0863,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.0741,
"ev": -0.1519,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.4137
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.109,
"alpha_yes": 0.1499,
"best_no_odd": 2.46,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0898,
"edge_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1291,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_yes": -0.221,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1111,
"implied_no": 0.3692,
"implied_yes": 0.6308,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.109,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.379
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1499,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6173
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.379,
"p_final_yes": 0.6173,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1357,
"alpha_under": 0.0987,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.465,
"edge_over": -0.1444,
"edge_under": 0.1444,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.108,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.044,
"implied_over": 0.6264,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6264,
"implied_under": 0.3736,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3736,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1357,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.108,
"implied_prob": 0.6264,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6068
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0987,
"best_odd": 2.465,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3878
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6068,
"p_final_under": 0.3878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Jose Earthquakes II at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Jose Earthquakes II as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Jose Earthquakes II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward LA Galaxy II, but the model still strongly favours San Jose Earthquakes II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1274,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4349,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1519,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1274,
"implied_prob": 0.4349,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Jose Earthquakes II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.109,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.3692,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.109,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.379
},
"p_final": 0.379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1499,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6173
}
},
"edge": 0.0898,
"ev": 0.1291,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0987,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.465,
"edge": 0.0143,
"market_prob": 0.3736,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1357,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.108,
"implied_prob": 0.6264,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6068
},
"p_final": 0.3878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.044,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0987,
"best_odd": 2.465,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3878
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1444,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513169,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2927,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4137
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1291,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1291,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "LA Galaxy II",
"home": "San Jose Earthquakes II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.094131,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3736,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1274,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4349,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1519,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513169,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-10T19:59:07.192520+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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MLS Next Pro — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 48 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 54 |
| 1 | Austin II | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | New England II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 54 |
| 3 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 45 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | New York RB II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 43 |
| 6 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 43 |
| 6 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Toronto II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 39 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | North Texas | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 38 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 41 |
| 9 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 37 |
| 10 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 36 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 29 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 12 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 27 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 38 |
| 13 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 6 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 26 | 9 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 18 |
| 16 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 54 |
| 2 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 46 |
| 3 | New York RB II | 28 | 58 | 48 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 57 | 40 | +17 | 45 |
| 5 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 54 | 34 | +20 | 50 |
| 6 | Austin II | 26 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 51 |
| 8 | Chattanooga | 26 | 51 | 38 | +13 | 50 |
| 9 | New York City II | 28 | 50 | 44 | +6 | 47 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 26 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 41 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 49 | 43 | +6 | 48 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 39 |
| 13 | Toronto II | 28 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | New England II | 28 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 48 |
| 15 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 36 |
| 16 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 42 |
| 17 | Huntsville City | 26 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 38 |
| 18 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 41 | 37 | +4 | 43 |
| 19 | North Texas | 26 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 38 |
| 20 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 39 |
| 21 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 27 |
| 22 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 43 |
| 23 | Carolina Core | 26 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 28 |
| 24 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 29 |
| 25 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 54 |
| 26 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 37 |
| 27 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 32 | 62 | -30 | 20 |
| 28 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 32 | 68 | -36 | 20 |
| 29 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 27 | 63 | -36 | 15 |
| 30 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 18 |
