The model missed the final outcome (San Luis de Quillota win 2–1).
The model had projected Antofagasta at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Antofagasta San Luis de Quillota ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Luis de Quillota | 31.0% | 36.6% | -5.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.0% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Antofagasta | 39.5% | 37.4% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates San Luis de Quillota's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue San Luis de Quillota win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on San Luis de Quillota. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Antofagasta by 5.6 percentage points (45.1% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Luis de Quillota 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Antofagasta 39.5%
- xG · San Luis de Quillota 1.21 — Antofagasta 1.39
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Luis de Quillota 2.47 · Draw 3.48 · Antofagasta 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · San Luis de Quillota 36.6% · Draw 26.0% · Antofagasta 37.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Luis de Quillota 2.47 · Draw 3.48 · Antofagasta 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · San Luis de Quillota 36.6% · Draw 26.0% · Antofagasta 37.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Luis de Quillota win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
72/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.47
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
San Luis de Quillota win · San Luis de Quillota 2–1 Antofagasta
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0731,
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],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.3%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.6,
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"show": true,
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"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
"authority": {
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},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Antofagasta at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Antofagasta as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
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"model_lean": "Antofagasta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0731,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3738,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0443,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.59,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"steam_team": "San Luis de Quillota",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Antofagasta at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Antofagasta as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Antofagasta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0731,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3738,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0443,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Luis de Quillota 1.21 xG vs Antofagasta 1.39 \u2192 Antofagasta 39.5%",
"Market: Antofagasta ~37.4% implied",
"Market Steam: San Luis de Quillota \u2193 -4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Antofagasta, but sharp money moved toward San Luis de Quillota.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.59,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "San Luis de Quillota",
"market_prob": 36.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.52,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.08,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Antofagasta",
"market_prob": 37.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.34,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.34,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.21,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "San Luis de Quillota",
"market_prob_pct": 36.62,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "San Luis de Quillota"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates San Luis de Quillota\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Antofagasta",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Luis de Quillota 1.21 xG vs Antofagasta 1.39 \u2192 Antofagasta 39.5%",
"Market: Antofagasta ~37.4% implied",
"Market Steam: San Luis de Quillota \u2193 -4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Antofagasta, but sharp money moved toward San Luis de Quillota.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.59,
"hero_label": "San Luis de Quillota",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "San Luis de Quillota odds shortened \u2193 -4.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on San Luis de Quillota. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on San Luis de Quillota.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on San Luis de Quillota. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on San Luis de Quillota."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices San Luis de Quillota above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on San Luis de Quillota (\u2193 -4.3%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "San Luis de Quillota",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices San Luis de Quillota higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.59,
"edge_pp": -5.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "San Luis de Quillota",
"market_prob_pct": 36.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.52,
"edge_pp": 3.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.99,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.08,
"edge_pp": 2.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Antofagasta",
"market_prob_pct": 37.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on San Luis de Quillota.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Antofagasta (37.4%).",
"San Luis de Quillota has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.3%, 5/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Antofagasta, Market \u2192 Antofagasta, Recent sharp money \u2192 San Luis de Quillota.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.49,
"closing_odds": 2.47,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.49,
"entry_odds": 2.47,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on San Luis de Quillota (4.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.47",
"2.36",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.38 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 56m",
"pick_team": "San Luis de Quillota",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.47,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.8 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "San Luis de Quillota",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Market moved toward San Luis de Quillota while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "San Luis de Quillota",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "San Luis de Quillota",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "San Luis de Quillota",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "antofagasta",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Antofagasta",
"away_team_id": 2327,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2327.webp",
"away_team_name": "Antofagasta",
"away_team_public_id": "1QAEMrH6vNw5gC",
"away_team_slug": "antofagasta",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1511694,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "San Luis de Quillota",
"home_team_id": 2322,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2322.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Luis de Quillota",
"home_team_public_id": "2Gngc9fIZXK2pr",
"home_team_slug": "san-luis",
"ht.home_team_slug": "san-luis",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Primera B de Chile",
"league_id": 266,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/266.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B de Chile",
"league_public_id": "2foiaznMsuMyxQ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 21:00:00",
"public_id": "0n8cpjKVEu3b0y",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quillota",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4357,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.3738,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3738,
"draw": 0.2599,
"home": 0.3662
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.383
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2843,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.2599,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3738,
"draw": 0.2599,
"home": 0.3662
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2698
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4122,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0231,
"ev": -0.1523,
"implied_prob": 0.3662,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3738,
"draw": 0.2599,
"home": 0.3662
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3432
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": 0.0257,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.0945,
"ev": -0.2335,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1682,
"alpha_yes": 0.2312,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0421,
"edge_yes": -0.0421,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0283,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0622,
"ev_yes": -0.1312,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0946,
"implied_no": 0.4149,
"implied_yes": 0.5851,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4205
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0946,
"implied_prob": 0.5868,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5767
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4205,
"p_final_yes": 0.5767,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2241,
"alpha_under": 0.2037,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.695,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.03,
"edge_over": -0.0634,
"edge_under": 0.0634,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1002,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"implied_over": 0.5454,
"implied_over_mf": 0.545,
"implied_under": 0.4546,
"implied_under_mf": 0.455,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2241,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1002,
"implied_prob": 0.545,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5309
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4679
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5309,
"p_final_under": 0.4679,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Antofagasta at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Antofagasta as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Antofagasta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Luis de Quillota, but the model still strongly favours Antofagasta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0731,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3738,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0443,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.3738,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Antofagasta"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4132,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4205
},
"p_final": 0.4205,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0622,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0946,
"implied_prob": 0.5868,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5767
}
},
"edge": 0.0421,
"ev": 0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0128,
"market_prob": 0.455,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2241,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1002,
"implied_prob": 0.545,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5309
},
"p_final": 0.4679,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4679
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0634,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1511694,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Antofagasta",
"home": "San Luis de Quillota"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0731,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3738,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0443,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1511694,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T20:59:05.696292+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera B de Chile — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Wanderers | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 44 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 24 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 42 |
| 3 | San Luis de Quillota | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | San Marcos de Arica | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | Unión Española | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 36 |
| 9 | Deportes Puerto Montt | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 34 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 11 | Deportes Copiapó | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 28 |
| 13 | Curicó Unido | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 27 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 15 | Unión San Felipe | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antofagasta | 25 | 42 | 26 | +16 | 38 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 24 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 42 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 25 | 41 | 38 | +3 | 40 |
| 4 | Santiago Wanderers | 24 | 40 | 25 | +15 | 44 |
| 5 | Deportes Temuco | 25 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 32 |
| 6 | San Luis de Quillota | 24 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | Recoleta | 25 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 38 |
| 8 | Deportes Iquique | 25 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportes Copiapó | 24 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | Unión Española | 25 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | San Marcos de Arica | 25 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportes Puerto Montt | 25 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 34 |
| 13 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 25 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 22 |
| 14 | Rangers de Talca | 25 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 18 |
| 15 | Curicó Unido | 25 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 27 |
| 16 | Unión San Felipe | 23 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 22 |
