AI correctly predicted the Deportes Copiapó win.
The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Deportes Copiapó Deportes Copiapó ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión San Felipe | 32.4% | 32.0% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Deportes Copiapó | 38.0% | 37.4% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Deportes Copiapó win 1–4).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Deportes Copiapó win 1–4).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Unión San Felipe 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Deportes Copiapó 38.0%
- xG · Unión San Felipe 1.24 — Deportes Copiapó 1.36
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Unión San Felipe 2.86 · Draw 2.99 · Deportes Copiapó 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Unión San Felipe 32.0% · Draw 30.6% · Deportes Copiapó 37.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Unión San Felipe 2.86 · Draw 2.99 · Deportes Copiapó 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Unión San Felipe 32.0% · Draw 30.6% · Deportes Copiapó 37.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportes Copiapó win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
94/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.99
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Deportes Copiapó win · Unión San Felipe 1–4 Deportes Copiapó
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
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"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"decision_chain": {
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],
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Copiap\u00f3 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Copiap\u00f3 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportes Copiap\u00f3).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0683,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.03,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"steam_team": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportes Copiap\u00f3)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportes Copiap\u00f3)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Copiap\u00f3 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Copiap\u00f3 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportes Copiap\u00f3).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0683,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uni\u00f3n San Felipe 1.24 xG vs Deportes Copiap\u00f3 1.36 \u2192 Deportes Copiap\u00f3 38.0%",
"Market: Deportes Copiap\u00f3 ~37.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Uni\u00f3n San Felipe odds \u2191 +3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportes Copiap\u00f3 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.38,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"market_prob": 32.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.03,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.64,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"market_prob": 37.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.09,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.24,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.24,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -1.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.62,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uni\u00f3n San Felipe 1.24 xG vs Deportes Copiap\u00f3 1.36 \u2192 Deportes Copiap\u00f3 38.0%",
"Market: Deportes Copiap\u00f3 ~37.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Uni\u00f3n San Felipe odds \u2191 +3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportes Copiap\u00f3 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.03,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe odds lengthened \u2191 +3.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Uni\u00f3n San Felipe has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Uni\u00f3n San Felipe \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Uni\u00f3n San Felipe has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Uni\u00f3n San Felipe \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Uni\u00f3n San Felipe has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -1.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.38,
"edge_pp": 0.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"market_prob_pct": 32.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.03,
"edge_pp": -1.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.64,
"edge_pp": 0.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"market_prob_pct": 37.37,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Uni\u00f3n San Felipe \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportes Copiap\u00f3 (37.4%).",
"Uni\u00f3n San Felipe odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.1%, 4/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Deportes Copiap\u00f3 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.44,
"closing_odds": 2.99,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.44,
"entry_odds": 2.99,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Uni\u00f3n San Felipe (3.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.86",
"2.74",
"2.62"
],
"display": "2.92 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 1m",
"pick_team": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
2.86,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportes-copiapo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"away_team_id": 2343,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2343.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"away_team_public_id": "4o6v1gnFJyvVHB",
"away_team_slug": "deportes-copiapo",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1511693,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"home_team_id": 2340,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2340.webp",
"home_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe",
"home_team_public_id": "2kGXzYCIGP1LNs",
"home_team_slug": "union-san-felipe",
"ht.home_team_slug": "union-san-felipe",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Primera B de Chile",
"league_id": 266,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/266.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B de Chile",
"league_public_id": "2foiaznMsuMyxQ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 15:30:00",
"public_id": "3IxLhcZAa0CiTr",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "San Felipe",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de San Felipe"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4455,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0772,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3737,
"draw": 0.3062,
"home": 0.3201
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3766
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4431,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0045,
"ev": -0.0981,
"implied_prob": 0.3062,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3737,
"draw": 0.3062,
"home": 0.3201
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3017
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4476,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.3201,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3737,
"draw": 0.3062,
"home": 0.3201
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3217
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.0682,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.0385,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.0742,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2145,
"alpha_yes": 0.236,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0324,
"edge_yes": 0.0324,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.129,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.092,
"ev_yes": -0.0045,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0662,
"implied_no": 0.4884,
"implied_yes": 0.5116,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4804
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.236,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0662,
"implied_prob": 0.5129,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5202
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4804,
"p_final_yes": 0.5202,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2152,
"alpha_under": 0.2368,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.69,
"edge_over": 0.0309,
"edge_under": -0.0309,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.063,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0873,
"implied_over": 0.4511,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4531,
"implied_under": 0.5489,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5469,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4593
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2368,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.0873,
"implied_prob": 0.5469,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5401
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4593,
"p_final_under": 0.5401,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportes Copiap\u00f3)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Copiap\u00f3 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Copiap\u00f3 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportes Copiap\u00f3).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
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"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
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"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"side_label": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3"
},
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},
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"match_regime": {
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"code": "thin_edge",
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"use_split_strip": true
},
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"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportes Copiap\u00f3",
"home": "Uni\u00f3n San Felipe"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1511693,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:29:07.614189+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera B de Chile — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Wanderers | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 44 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 24 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 42 |
| 3 | San Luis de Quillota | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | San Marcos de Arica | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | Unión Española | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 36 |
| 9 | Deportes Puerto Montt | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 34 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 11 | Deportes Copiapó | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 28 |
| 13 | Curicó Unido | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 27 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 15 | Unión San Felipe | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antofagasta | 25 | 42 | 26 | +16 | 38 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 24 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 42 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 25 | 41 | 38 | +3 | 40 |
| 4 | Santiago Wanderers | 24 | 40 | 25 | +15 | 44 |
| 5 | Deportes Temuco | 25 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 32 |
| 6 | San Luis de Quillota | 24 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | Recoleta | 25 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 38 |
| 8 | Deportes Iquique | 25 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportes Copiapó | 24 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | Unión Española | 25 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | San Marcos de Arica | 25 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportes Puerto Montt | 25 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 34 |
| 13 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 25 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 22 |
| 14 | Rangers de Talca | 25 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 18 |
| 15 | Curicó Unido | 25 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 27 |
| 16 | Unión San Felipe | 23 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 22 |
