The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Böljan at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Böljan Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Böljan | 35.6% | 23.9% | +11.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.2% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Landvetter IS | 34.7% | 51.9% | -17.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Landvetter IS's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Landvetter IS than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Böljan; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Böljan by 17.2 percentage points (52.8% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Böljan 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Landvetter IS 34.7%
- xG · Böljan 1.31 — Landvetter IS 1.29
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Böljan 3.71 · Draw 3.67 · Landvetter IS 1.71
- Implied 1X2 · Böljan 23.9% · Draw 24.2% · Landvetter IS 51.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Böljan 3.71 · Draw 3.67 · Landvetter IS 1.71
- Implied 1X2 · Böljan 23.9% · Draw 24.2% · Landvetter IS 51.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
4/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.71
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Böljan 1–1 Landvetter IS
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ec7fc18f808d6c1afb991e446dd4653a3a25ecad4bff3c248a0869e618f8d614",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : B\u00f6ljan or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "B\u00f6ljan"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "B\u00f6ljan",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1167,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2392,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.71
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.71,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "B\u00f6ljan Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.18,
"market_odds": 3.71,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": 8.6,
"value_pct": 32.0,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 21,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 21,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "B\u00f6ljan or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "B\u00f6ljan or Landvetter IS",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Landvetter IS",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "B\u00f6ljan or Landvetter IS",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "B\u00f6ljan"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 32.1,
"implied_prob": 27.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "B\u00f6ljan Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 3.71
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Landvetter IS",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 51.9,
"draw": 24.18,
"home": 23.92
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 16:59:53",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 16:31:07",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "B\u00f6ljan",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.92,
"gap_pp": 11.67,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.18,
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.9,
"gap_pp": -17.17,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.4,
"gap_pp": -13.2,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.6,
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.71,
"early": 3.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.92,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.67,
"early": 3.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.18,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.37,
"early": 2.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.1,
"ev": 0.008,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0193,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3838,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1332,
"implied_prob": 0.6162,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5897
},
"p_final": 0.4031,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2225,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3838,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4031
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3209,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10438.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1594,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0121,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3789,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1594,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.3789,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.391
},
"p_final": 0.391,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0966,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0577,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2192,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.6211,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6044
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.8,
"text": "+13.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.2,
"text": "-18.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1375,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10123.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0054,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2392,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0054,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "B\u00f6ljan",
"sort_key": 1798.65,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.2,
"hero_label": "Landvetter IS",
"market_prob_pct": 23.9,
"market_team": "Landvetter IS",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "B\u00f6ljan",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u00f6ljan at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies B\u00f6ljan as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "B\u00f6ljan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2392,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2695417789757412,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.2,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.2,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "B\u00f6ljan",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u00f6ljan at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies B\u00f6ljan as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "B\u00f6ljan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2392,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2695417789757412,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: B\u00f6ljan 1.31 xG vs Landvetter IS 1.29 \u2192 B\u00f6ljan 35.6%",
"Market: Landvetter IS ~23.9% implied",
"Market Steam: B\u00f6ljan +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans B\u00f6ljan, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 11.72,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "B\u00f6ljan",
"market_prob": 23.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.47,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.2,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Landvetter IS",
"market_prob": 51.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.57,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.57,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.66,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.66,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Landvetter IS",
"market_prob_pct": 51.9,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "B\u00f6ljan"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Landvetter IS\u0027s win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.2,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "B\u00f6ljan",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: B\u00f6ljan 1.31 xG vs Landvetter IS 1.29 \u2192 B\u00f6ljan 35.6%",
"Market: Landvetter IS ~23.9% implied",
"Market Steam: B\u00f6ljan +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans B\u00f6ljan, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.2,
"hero_label": "Landvetter IS",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Landvetter IS than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Landvetter IS than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Landvetter IS than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Landvetter IS more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Landvetter IS (pricing gap 17.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.2,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Landvetter IS",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Landvetter IS higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 11.72,
"edge_pp": 11.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "B\u00f6ljan",
"market_prob_pct": 23.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.47,
"edge_pp": 5.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.18,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -17.2,
"edge_pp": -17.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Landvetter IS",
"market_prob_pct": 51.9,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Landvetter IS than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Landvetter IS (23.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 B\u00f6ljan, Market \u2192 Landvetter IS, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.48,
"closing_odds": 1.71,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.48,
"entry_odds": 1.71,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "B\u00f6ljan",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_team_name": "B\u00f6ljan",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "landvetter-is",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Landvetter IS",
"away_team_id": 18424,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18424.webp",
"away_team_name": "Landvetter IS",
"away_team_public_id": "1pP3R9fRDBoZ8L",
"away_team_slug": "landvetter-is",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1511399,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "B\u00f6ljan",
"home_team_id": 25575,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25575.webp",
"home_team_name": "B\u00f6ljan",
"home_team_public_id": "0Y3j69HXD5fYQU",
"home_team_slug": "boljan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "boljan",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Division 2 - V\u00e4stra G\u00f6taland",
"league_id": 596,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/596.webp",
"league_name": "Division 2 - V\u00e4stra G\u00f6taland",
"league_public_id": "27TZ8x7rtpeogb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 17:00:00",
"public_id": "0jIyPlorymYLyE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4455,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0765,
"ev": -0.2433,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.519,
"draw": 0.2418,
"home": 0.2392
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4425
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2753,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.2418,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.519,
"draw": 0.2418,
"home": 0.2392
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2569
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2475,
"best_odd": 3.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": -0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.2392,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.519,
"draw": 0.2418,
"home": 0.2392
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.2681
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.2375,
"ev": -0.4061,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": 0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.71,
"edge": 0.0864,
"ev": 0.3205,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1594,
"alpha_yes": 0.2192,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0766,
"edge_yes": -0.0766,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0577,
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1115,
"implied_no": 0.3784,
"implied_yes": 0.6216,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1594,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.3789,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.391
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2192,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.6211,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6044
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.391,
"p_final_yes": 0.6044,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1977,
"alpha_under": 0.1438,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.36,
"edge_over": -0.1357,
"edge_under": 0.1357,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1332,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0487,
"implied_over": 0.6177,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6162,
"implied_under": 0.3823,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3838,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1332,
"implied_prob": 0.6162,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5897
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3838,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4031
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5897,
"p_final_under": 0.4031,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u00f6ljan at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies B\u00f6ljan as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "B\u00f6ljan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced B\u00f6ljan, but the model still strongly favours B\u00f6ljan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2392,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2695417789757412,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": -0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.2392,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "B\u00f6ljan"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1594,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0121,
"market_prob": 0.3789,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1594,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.3789,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.391
},
"p_final": 0.391,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0577,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2192,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.6211,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6044
}
},
"edge": 0.0766,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0193,
"market_prob": 0.3838,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1332,
"implied_prob": 0.6162,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5897
},
"p_final": 0.4031,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.3838,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4031
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1357,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3823,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1511399,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Landvetter IS",
"home": "B\u00f6ljan"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3823,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2392,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2695417789757412,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1511399,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T16:59:55.279012+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Böljan & Landvetter IS!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 51 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 43 |
| 3 | Hestrafor | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Jonsered | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 5 | Lindome | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Böljan | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Västra Frölunda | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Qviding FIF | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 9 | Onsala | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Kongahälla | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 27 |
| 11 | Åstorp | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 12 | Torslanda | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 14 | Astrio | 23 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 9 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hestrafor | 23 | 48 | 38 | +10 | 41 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 23 | 44 | 25 | +19 | 43 |
| 3 | Lindome | 23 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 34 |
| 4 | Västra Frölunda | 22 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 33 |
| 5 | Qviding FIF | 22 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 31 |
| 6 | Landvetter IS | 23 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 51 |
| 7 | Jonsered | 23 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 39 |
| 8 | Torslanda | 23 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 25 |
| 9 | Böljan | 23 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 34 |
| 10 | Galtabacks | 23 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 23 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 27 |
| 12 | Onsala | 22 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
| 13 | Åstorp | 22 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 26 |
| 14 | Astrio | 23 | 21 | 56 | -35 | 9 |
