The model missed the final outcome (Karlslund win 1–4).
The model had projected Nacka Iliria at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Nacka Iliria Karlslund ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Karlslund win 1–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Nacka Iliria 1.32 — Karlslund 1.28
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Karlslund win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Karlslund win · Nacka Iliria 1–4 Karlslund
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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},
{
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
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},
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"text": "-26.2%"
},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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{
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.7,
"text": "+9.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10086.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2277,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.8,
"text": "-22.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0323,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Nacka Iliria",
"sort_key": 1791.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"alert_team": "Karlslund",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.87,
"hero_label": "Nacka Iliria",
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"market_team": "Nacka Iliria",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Nacka Iliria",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2846,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nacka Iliria at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nacka Iliria as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nacka Iliria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2277,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.87,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"steam_team": "Karlslund",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2846,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nacka Iliria at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nacka Iliria as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nacka Iliria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2277,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nacka Iliria 1.32 xG vs Karlslund 1.28 \u2192 Nacka Iliria 36.1%",
"Market: Nacka Iliria ~50.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Karlslund \u2193 -12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nacka Iliria, but sharp money moved toward Karlslund.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.87,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Nacka Iliria",
"market_prob": 49.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.6,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Karlslund",
"market_prob": 25.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.67,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Nacka Iliria",
"market_prob_pct": 49.98,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Karlslund"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Nacka Iliria\u0027s win probability at 50.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Nacka Iliria",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nacka Iliria 1.32 xG vs Karlslund 1.28 \u2192 Nacka Iliria 36.1%",
"Market: Nacka Iliria ~50.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Karlslund \u2193 -12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nacka Iliria, but sharp money moved toward Karlslund.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.87,
"hero_label": "Nacka Iliria",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Karlslund odds shortened \u2193 -12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Karlslund, with odds shortening by 12.5%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Nacka Iliria than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Karlslund \u2014 odds shortened by 12.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Nacka Iliria than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Karlslund, with odds shortening by 12.5%.",
"Buying interest on Karlslund \u2014 odds shortened by 12.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Nacka Iliria more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Karlslund has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 12.5%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Karlslund."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Nacka Iliria",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Nacka Iliria higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.87,
"edge_pp": -13.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nacka Iliria",
"market_prob_pct": 49.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.27,
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.6,
"edge_pp": 8.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Karlslund",
"market_prob_pct": 25.64,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Karlslund \u2014 odds shortened by 12.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nacka Iliria (50.0%).",
"However, Karlslund has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -12.5%, 5/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nacka Iliria, Market \u2192 Nacka Iliria, Recent sharp money \u2192 Karlslund.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Karlslund (12.5%, 5/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.74",
"3.47"
],
"display": "4.40 \u2192 3.43 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 44m",
"pick_team": "Karlslund",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.43"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
3.47,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,17.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.47"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Karlslund \u2193 -12.5% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Karlslund",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Karlslund \u2193 -12.5% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Karlslund while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Karlslund",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Karlslund",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_team_name": "Karlslund",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "karlslund",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Karlslund",
"away_team_id": 11660,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11660.webp",
"away_team_name": "Karlslund",
"away_team_public_id": "176yrcvabB6spI",
"away_team_slug": "karlslund",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1511234,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Nacka Iliria",
"home_team_id": 14510,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14510.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nacka Iliria",
"home_team_public_id": "193Z7QcdFE0JRx",
"home_team_slug": "nacka-iliria",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nacka-iliria",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Division 2 - S\u00f6dra Svealand",
"league_id": 595,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/595.webp",
"league_name": "Division 2 - S\u00f6dra Svealand",
"league_public_id": "0ztm4NrCiS9Rod",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 10:00:00",
"public_id": "3o37qZHzqmATjg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2613,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0225,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2564,
"draw": 0.2438,
"home": 0.4998
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2789
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2762,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0569,
"implied_prob": 0.2438,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2564,
"draw": 0.2438,
"home": 0.4998
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2584
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.475,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.2277,
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2564,
"draw": 0.2438,
"home": 0.4998
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4339
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0542,
"ev": 0.1881,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.2009,
"ev": -0.3575,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1613,
"alpha_yes": 0.2219,
"best_no_odd": 2.41,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0667,
"edge_yes": -0.0667,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0649,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1138,
"implied_no": 0.3883,
"implied_yes": 0.6117,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3971
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6141,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5988
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3971,
"p_final_yes": 0.5988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2013,
"alpha_under": 0.1464,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.48,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.505,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.32,
"edge_over": -0.1275,
"edge_under": 0.1275,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1249,
"ev_under": 0.2846,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0449,
"implied_over": 0.6095,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6065,
"implied_under": 0.3905,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3935,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2013,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1249,
"implied_prob": 0.6065,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5815
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1464,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.3935,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4117
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5815,
"p_final_under": 0.4117,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2846,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2846,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2846,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nacka Iliria at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nacka Iliria as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nacka Iliria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Karlslund, but the model still strongly favours Nacka Iliria.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.2277,
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Nacka Iliria"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0111,
"market_prob": 0.3859,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3971
},
"p_final": 0.3971,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6141,
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"p_final": 0.5988
}
},
"edge": 0.0667,
"ev": 0.0966,
"implied_prob": 0.3883,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.3935,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1249,
"implied_prob": 0.6065,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5815
},
"p_final": 0.4117,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0449,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.3935,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4117
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1275,
"ev": 0.2846,
"implied_prob": 0.3905,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1511234,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2846,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Karlslund",
"home": "Nacka Iliria"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2846,
"implied_prob": 0.3905,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2277,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1511234,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T09:59:23.596088+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farsta | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 2 | Sleipner | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Forward | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | Nyköping | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 43 |
| 5 | Haninge | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 42 |
| 6 | Rågsved | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 |
| 7 | Smedby | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 36 |
| 8 | Fittja | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 33 |
| 9 | Karlslund | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| 10 | Örebro Syrianska | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 11 | Syrianska FC | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26 |
| 12 | Nacka Iliria | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 13 | Lindo FF | 24 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 20 |
| 14 | Eker Örebro | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haninge | 23 | 56 | 43 | +13 | 42 |
| 2 | Farsta | 24 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 46 |
| 3 | Sleipner | 24 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 45 |
| 4 | Forward | 24 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 44 |
| 5 | Rågsved | 24 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 39 |
| 6 | Smedby | 24 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 36 |
| 7 | Nyköping | 24 | 39 | 23 | +16 | 43 |
| 8 | Syrianska FC | 24 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 26 |
| 9 | Fittja | 24 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Karlslund | 23 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Lindo FF | 24 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 20 |
| 12 | Eker Örebro | 24 | 29 | 71 | -42 | 15 |
| 13 | Örebro Syrianska | 23 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 27 |
| 14 | Nacka Iliria | 23 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 24 |
