The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Sölvesborg at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sölvesborg Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sölvesborg | 40.4% | 49.9% | -9.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.9% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Räppe | 30.1% | 25.2% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Sölvesborg's win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sölvesborg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Sölvesborg; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sölvesborg by 9.5 percentage points (49.9% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jun 18, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sölvesborg 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Räppe 30.1%
- xG · Sölvesborg 1.41 — Räppe 1.19
-
Jun 18, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sölvesborg 1.78 · Draw 3.57 · Räppe 3.52
- Implied 1X2 · Sölvesborg 49.9% · Draw 24.9% · Räppe 25.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 18, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sölvesborg 1.78 · Draw 3.57 · Räppe 3.52
- Implied 1X2 · Sölvesborg 49.9% · Draw 24.9% · Räppe 25.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
52/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sölvesborg 1–1 Räppe
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"alert_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
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"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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{
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"outcome": "draw"
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{
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{
"edge_pp": -12.89,
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"outcome": "over"
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{
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"fair_prob": 51.8,
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"market_prob": 38.91,
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"outcome": "under"
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{
"edge_pp": -7.24,
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"label": "BTTS Yes",
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"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.24,
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
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"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"market_prob_pct": 49.89,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "R\u00e4ppe"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 49.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean S\u00f6lvesborg, but the market prices them higher (49.9% vs model 40.4%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.47,
"hero_label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "R\u00e4ppe odds lengthened \u2191 +10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, R\u00e4ppe has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on S\u00f6lvesborg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on S\u00f6lvesborg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, R\u00e4ppe has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices S\u00f6lvesborg above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, R\u00e4ppe has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"market_prob_pct": 49.89,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.88,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "R\u00e4ppe",
"market_prob_pct": 25.23,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers S\u00f6lvesborg (49.9%).",
"R\u00e4ppe has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +10.8%, 4/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 S\u00f6lvesborg, Market \u2192 S\u00f6lvesborg, Recent sharp money \u2192 R\u00e4ppe.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
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{
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"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
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"books_total": 11,
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"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on R\u00e4ppe (10.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
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],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.90 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 58m",
"pick_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
"points": [
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},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
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},
{
"label_key": "current",
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}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.1 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/11",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "R\u00e4ppe",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"Closing odds analysis",
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"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 12617,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12617.webp",
"away_team_name": "R\u00e4ppe",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1510962,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 12660,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12660.webp",
"home_team_name": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 597,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/597.webp",
"league_name": "Division 2 - S\u00f6dra G\u00f6taland",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-18 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
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"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0641,
"implied_prob": 0.2523,
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.2659
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2796,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.2488,
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2614
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5153,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0485,
"ev": -0.1983,
"implied_prob": 0.4989,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4504
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"edge_no": 0.0724,
"edge_yes": -0.0724,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.145,
"ev_yes": -0.1707,
"implied_no": 0.3856,
"implied_yes": 0.6144,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": -0.1289,
"edge_under": 0.1289,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"implied_over": 0.6109,
"implied_under": 0.3891,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0485,
"ev": -0.1983,
"implied_prob": 0.4989,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "S\u00f6lvesborg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0724,
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1289,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1510962,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "S\u00f6lvesborg"
},
"top_pick": {
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1510962,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-18T20:00:07.652524+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 23 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 57 |
| 2 | IFK Trelleborg | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Oskarshamns AIK | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | Berga | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Nosaby | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Linero | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 35 |
| 7 | Växjö Norra | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Österlen | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Lilla Torg | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Sölvesborg | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 11 | Staffanstorp United | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| 12 | Torns | 22 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 13 | Räppe | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 23 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 23 | 61 | 20 | +41 | 57 |
| 2 | Oskarshamns AIK | 23 | 58 | 30 | +28 | 42 |
| 3 | IFK Trelleborg | 23 | 49 | 23 | +26 | 47 |
| 4 | Berga | 22 | 47 | 33 | +14 | 37 |
| 5 | Nosaby | 23 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 36 |
| 6 | Linero | 22 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Österlen | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Staffanstorp United | 23 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 23 |
| 9 | Sölvesborg | 22 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 25 |
| 10 | Växjö Norra | 23 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | Torns | 22 | 30 | 59 | -29 | 21 |
| 12 | Lilla Torg | 22 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 27 |
| 13 | Räppe | 23 | 25 | 51 | -26 | 18 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 23 | 24 | 60 | -36 | 11 |
