AI correctly predicted the Fram Reykjavík win.
The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (7 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Fram Reykjavík Fram Reykjavík ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Fram Reykjavík win 3–4).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jun 15, 2026 · 18:24 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · KA Akureyri 1.34 — Fram Reykjavík 1.26
-
Jun 15, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fram Reykjavík win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fram Reykjavík win · KA Akureyri 3–4 Fram Reykjavík
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "5/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +1.4%",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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{
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{
"edge_pp": -19.78,
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},
{
"edge_pp": 19.78,
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},
{
"edge_pp": -13.99,
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"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.49,
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"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.99,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.51,
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"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.32,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 44.89,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean Fram Reykjav\u00edk, but the market prices them higher (44.9% vs model 36.3%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.57,
"hero_label": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +1.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Fram Reykjav\u00edk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Fram Reykjav\u00edk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Fram Reykjav\u00edk above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 8.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.7 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.7,
"max_prob_pct": 36.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "KA Akureyri",
"market_prob_pct": 31.72,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.05,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.38,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.32,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 44.89,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fram Reykjav\u00edk (44.9%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +1.4%, 5/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fram Reykjav\u00edk, Market \u2192 Fram Reykjav\u00edk, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.17,
"closing_odds": 2.12,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.17,
"entry_odds": 2.12,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 1.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Net move flat on Draw (1.4%), but intraday swing reached 10.0% \u2014 price repriced then reverted.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.98 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 3.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
"label_key": "current",
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],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,15.6",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2117,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2117.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"country_code": "IS",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
"country_name": "Iceland",
"fixture_id": 1508782,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Iceland",
"home_team_id": 272,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/272.webp",
"home_team_name": "KA Akureyri",
"league_country": "Iceland",
"league_id": 164,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/164.webp",
"league_name": "\u00darvalsdeild",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-15 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Akureyri",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3923,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.3635,
"p_final": 0.4154
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1859,
"best_odd": 4.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0128,
"implied_prob": 0.2338,
"model_prob": 0.2808,
"p_final": 0.2426
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2827,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0156,
"implied_prob": 0.3172,
"model_prob": 0.3557,
"p_final": 0.3281
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"edge_no": 0.1399,
"edge_yes": -0.1399,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4105,
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"implied_no": 0.3151,
"implied_yes": 0.6849,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.38,
"best_under_odd": 3.04,
"edge_over": -0.1978,
"edge_under": 0.1978,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3348,
"ev_under": 0.5747,
"implied_over": 0.6798,
"implied_under": 0.3202,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5747,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2808,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3635,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3635,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1399,
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3151,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1978,
"ev": 0.5747,
"implied_prob": 0.3202,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1508782,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5747,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3635,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.3557
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3151,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3151,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"home": "KA Akureyri"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5747,
"implied_prob": 0.3202,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508782,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T18:24:54.390248+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Úrvalsdeild — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Víkingur Reykjavík | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavík | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavík | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Breiðablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | ÍA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavík | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavík | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | FH Hafnarfjörður | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | Þór Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 12 | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KR Reykjavík | 22 | 74 | 49 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Víkingur Reykjavík | 22 | 67 | 21 | +46 | 53 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavík | 22 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 45 |
| 4 | Breiðablik | 22 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 30 |
| 5 | Stjarnan | 22 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 28 |
| 6 | ÍA Akranes | 22 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 30 |
| 7 | Valur Reykjavík | 22 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 20 |
| 9 | Keflavík | 22 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 28 |
| 10 | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjörður | 22 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 21 |
| 12 | Þór Akureyri | 22 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 21 |
