The model missed the final outcome (San Diego Wave win 0–2).
The model had projected Racing Louisville at 41.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Racing Louisville San Diego Wave ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Louisville | 41.1% | 22.8% | +18.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.5% | 24.6% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
| San Diego Wave | 36.4% | 52.6% | -16.2 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Racing Louisville's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.8%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue San Diego Wave win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Racing Louisville.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Racing Louisville by 18.3 percentage points (22.8% vs model 41.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Racing Louisville 41.0% · Draw 22.5% · San Diego Wave 36.5%
- xG · Racing Louisville 2.07 — San Diego Wave 1.95
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Racing Louisville 4.02 · Draw 3.73 · San Diego Wave 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Racing Louisville 22.8% · Draw 24.6% · San Diego Wave 52.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Racing Louisville 4.02 · Draw 3.73 · San Diego Wave 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Racing Louisville 22.8% · Draw 24.6% · San Diego Wave 52.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Diego Wave win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
48/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
2/100
Monitoring Confidence
17/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.02
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
San Diego Wave win · Racing Louisville 0–2 San Diego Wave
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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"pick": "Yes",
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"correct_score": {
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 77.5
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 22.5,
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"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 4.02,
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"confidence": "high",
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},
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 22:29:02",
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"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
"label": "1-1",
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{
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{
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]
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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{
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},
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"text": "-42.2%"
},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+19.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1916,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 24.1,
"sort_key": 10172.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 75.9
},
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 4.02,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0225,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0225,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.41,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6482,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+64.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Racing Louisville",
"sort_key": 5218.0,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 802.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 7.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"alert_team": "Racing Louisville",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.27,
"hero_label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"market_team": "San Diego Wave",
"model_prob_pct": 41.1,
"model_team": "Racing Louisville",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Racing Louisville), but pricing still diverges by 18.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Racing Louisville), but pricing still diverges by 18.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2011,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 42,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Louisville at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Louisville as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Louisville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Racing Louisville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +65% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508556 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "42 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Racing Louisville), but pricing still diverges by 18.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +65% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0225,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.02,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24875621890547267,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6482,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+64.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.27,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.95,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.07,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.07,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.07 \u00b7 Away xG 1.95 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +53%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"steam_team": "Racing Louisville",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Racing Louisville), but pricing still diverges by 18.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Racing Louisville), but pricing still diverges by 18.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2011,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 42,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Louisville at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Louisville as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Louisville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Racing Louisville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +65% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508556 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "42 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Racing Louisville), but pricing still diverges by 18.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +65% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0225,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.02,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24875621890547267,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6482,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+64.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing Louisville 2.07 xG vs San Diego Wave 1.95 \u2192 Racing Louisville 41.1%",
"Market: San Diego Wave ~22.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Racing Louisville \u2193 -12.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Racing Louisville, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 18.27,
"fair_prob": 41.06,
"label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob": 22.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.06,
"fair_prob": 22.5,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.21,
"fair_prob": 36.44,
"label": "San Diego Wave",
"market_prob": 52.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.94,
"fair_prob": 76.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.94,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.9,
"fair_prob": 75.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.9,
"fair_prob": 24.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 18.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.06,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 22.79,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Racing Louisville"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Racing Louisville\u0027s win probability at 41.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.8%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 18.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Racing Louisville",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.3,
"model_prob_pct": 41.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Racing Louisville \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+18.3 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing Louisville 2.07 xG vs San Diego Wave 1.95 \u2192 Racing Louisville 41.1%",
"Market: San Diego Wave ~22.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Racing Louisville \u2193 -12.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Racing Louisville, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.27,
"hero_label": "Racing Louisville",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Racing Louisville odds shortened \u2193 -12.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Racing Louisville.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Racing Louisville.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Racing Louisville more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Racing Louisville (\u2193 -12.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.6 pp (at 41.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing Louisville",
"largest_gap_pp": 18.3,
"lead": "The model rates Racing Louisville considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 18.27,
"edge_pp": 18.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 22.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.06,
"edge_pp": -2.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.56,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -16.21,
"edge_pp": -16.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Diego Wave",
"market_prob_pct": 52.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Diego Wave (22.8%).",
"Racing Louisville has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -12.2%, 2/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Racing Louisville, Market \u2192 San Diego Wave, Recent sharp money \u2192 Racing Louisville.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.88,
"closing_odds": 4.02,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.88,
"entry_odds": 4.02,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Racing Louisville (12.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"4.06",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.50 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 29m",
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
4.02,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,10.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Racing Louisville",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "san-diego-wave-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Diego Wave",
"away_team_id": 18451,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18451.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Diego Wave",
"away_team_public_id": "59ga0lHTAAGGKc",
"away_team_slug": "san-diego-wave-w",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508556,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Racing Louisville",
"home_team_id": 16488,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16488.webp",
"home_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"home_team_public_id": "44mYXoXckP52pP",
"home_team_slug": "racing-louisville-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "racing-louisville-w",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 22:30:00",
"public_id": "4JYKfjrt0X3ycS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Louisville",
"venue_name": "Lynn Family Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4548,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0734,
"ev": -0.2116,
"implied_prob": 0.5265,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5265,
"draw": 0.2456,
"home": 0.2279
},
"model_prob": 0.3651,
"p_final": 0.4531
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2906,
"best_odd": 3.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.1064,
"implied_prob": 0.2456,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5265,
"draw": 0.2456,
"home": 0.2279
},
"model_prob": 0.2248,
"p_final": 0.2396
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1454,
"best_odd": 4.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": 0.0225,
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5265,
"draw": 0.2456,
"home": 0.2279
},
"model_prob": 0.41,
"p_final": 0.2544
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.2096,
"ev": -0.3647,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.3651
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.73,
"edge": -0.0433,
"ev": -0.1614,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"model_prob": 0.2248
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.02,
"edge": 0.1613,
"ev": 0.6483,
"implied_prob": 0.2488,
"model_prob": 0.41
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1403,
"alpha_yes": 0.193,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.149,
"edge_yes": 0.149,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4216,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.148,
"ev_yes": 0.1916,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0585,
"implied_no": 0.39,
"implied_yes": 0.61,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1403,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.3879,
"model_prob": 0.241,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": 0.0283,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.6121,
"model_prob": 0.759,
"p_final": 0.6405
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3673,
"p_final_yes": 0.6405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1895,
"alpha_under": 0.1378,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.43,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.485,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.31,
"edge_over": 0.1594,
"edge_under": -0.1594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2011,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0521,
"ev_under": -0.4289,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1458,
"implied_over": 0.6056,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6087,
"implied_under": 0.3944,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3913,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1895,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.6087,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6383
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3698
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6383,
"p_final_under": 0.3698,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2011,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6483,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2011,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Racing Louisville), but pricing still diverges by 18.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2011,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 42,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Louisville at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Louisville as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Louisville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Racing Louisville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +65% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508556 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "42 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Racing Louisville), but pricing still diverges by 18.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +65% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0225,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.02,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24875621890547267,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6482,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+64.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.759,
"draw_prob": 0.2248,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.41,
"over_prob": 0.765,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"under_prob": 0.235,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.02,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": 0.0225,
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.41,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Racing Louisville"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"edge": 0.0283,
"market_prob": 0.6121,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.759,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1403,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.3879,
"model_prob": 0.241,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"p_final": 0.6405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0585,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": 0.0283,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.6121,
"model_prob": 0.759,
"p_final": 0.6405
}
},
"edge": 0.149,
"ev": 0.1916,
"implied_prob": 0.61,
"model_prob": 0.759,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1895,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.485,
"edge": 0.0296,
"market_prob": 0.6087,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1895,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.6087,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6383
},
"p_final": 0.6383,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0521,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3698
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1594,
"ev": 0.2011,
"implied_prob": 0.6056,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508556,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2011,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3651,
"draw": 0.2248,
"home": 0.41
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1916,
"implied_prob": 0.61,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.759,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1916,
"implied_prob": 0.61,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.759,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Diego Wave",
"home": "Racing Louisville"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.192302,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2011,
"implied_prob": 0.6056,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0225,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.02,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24875621890547267,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6482,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+64.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508556,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T22:29:06.543233+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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NWSL Femenina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | OL Reign | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | OL Reign | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | OL Reign | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
