AI correctly predicted the NJ/NY Gotham FC win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 NJ/NY Gotham FC NJ/NY Gotham FC ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Louisville | 34.9% | 21.8% | +13.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.4% | 23.0% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| NJ/NY Gotham FC | 42.6% | 55.2% | -12.6 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Racing Louisville's win probability at 34.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.8%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (NJ/NY Gotham FC win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Racing Louisville.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.02) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced NJ/NY Gotham FC more conservatively (29.4% vs model 42.6%, 13.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (NJ/NY Gotham FC win 1–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Racing Louisville 35.0% · Draw 22.4% · NJ/NY Gotham FC 42.6%
- xG · Racing Louisville 1.91 — NJ/NY Gotham FC 2.11
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Racing Louisville 4.21 · Draw 3.98 · NJ/NY Gotham FC 1.66
- Implied 1X2 · Racing Louisville 21.8% · Draw 23.0% · NJ/NY Gotham FC 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Racing Louisville 4.21 · Draw 3.98 · NJ/NY Gotham FC 1.66
- Implied 1X2 · Racing Louisville 21.8% · Draw 23.0% · NJ/NY Gotham FC 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result NJ/NY Gotham FC win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (56%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
34/100
Betting Confidence
40/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.21
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
NJ/NY Gotham FC win · Racing Louisville 1–2 NJ/NY Gotham FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1855,
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"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.6,
"text": "-18.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": 0.0057,
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"sort_key": 5204.56,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 7.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"alert_team": "Racing Louisville",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.17,
"hero_label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 55.2,
"market_team": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"model_prob_pct": 42.6,
"model_team": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3113,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4729,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NJ/NY Gotham FC at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NJ/NY Gotham FC as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side NJ/NY Gotham FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508538 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1855,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5521,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4258,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 56.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 56%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5833333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (56%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.17,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.17,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.11,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 56.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.91,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.11,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.91 \u00b7 Away xG 2.11 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +56%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"steam_team": "Racing Louisville",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3113,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4729,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NJ/NY Gotham FC at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NJ/NY Gotham FC as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side NJ/NY Gotham FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508538 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1855,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5521,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4258,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 56.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 56%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing Louisville 1.91 xG vs NJ/NY Gotham FC 2.11 \u2192 NJ/NY Gotham FC 42.6%",
"Market: NJ/NY Gotham FC ~55.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Racing Louisville \u2193 -2.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours NJ/NY Gotham FC, but sharp money moved toward Racing Louisville.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 13.17,
"fair_prob": 34.94,
"label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob": 21.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.59,
"fair_prob": 22.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob": 42.62,
"label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"market_prob": 55.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.83,
"fair_prob": 76.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.83,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.79,
"fair_prob": 75.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.79,
"fair_prob": 24.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 21.77,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Racing Louisville"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Racing Louisville\u0027s win probability at 34.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.8%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.17,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.6,
"model_prob_pct": 42.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing Louisville 1.91 xG vs NJ/NY Gotham FC 2.11 \u2192 NJ/NY Gotham FC 42.6%",
"Market: NJ/NY Gotham FC ~55.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Racing Louisville \u2193 -2.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours NJ/NY Gotham FC, but sharp money moved toward Racing Louisville.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.17,
"hero_label": "Racing Louisville",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Racing Louisville odds shortened \u2193 -2.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Racing Louisville.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Racing Louisville.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Racing Louisville more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Racing Louisville (\u2193 -2.4%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.17,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.7 pp (at 42.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing Louisville",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.2,
"lead": "The model rates Racing Louisville considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 13.17,
"edge_pp": 13.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 21.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.59,
"edge_pp": -0.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.03,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.59,
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"market_prob_pct": 55.21,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers NJ/NY Gotham FC (55.2%).",
"Racing Louisville has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.4%, 7/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 NJ/NY Gotham FC, Market \u2192 NJ/NY Gotham FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Racing Louisville.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.75,
"closing_odds": 4.21,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.75,
"entry_odds": 4.21,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "7/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Racing Louisville (2.4%) \u2014 7/12 books shortening the line.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.21",
"4.15",
"4.10"
],
"display": "5.20 \u2192 3.70 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
4.21,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,1.6 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.21"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Racing Louisville while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Racing Louisville",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/12",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nj-ny-gotham-fc-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"away_team_id": 3003,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3003.webp",
"away_team_name": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"away_team_public_id": "39xmuo81nmF4Ya",
"away_team_slug": "nj-ny-gotham-fc-w",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508538,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Racing Louisville",
"home_team_id": 16488,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16488.webp",
"home_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"home_team_public_id": "44mYXoXckP52pP",
"home_team_slug": "racing-louisville-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "racing-louisville-w",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 22:30:00",
"public_id": "4A3butHnDE7KB0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Lynn Family Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4864,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0614,
"ev": -0.1855,
"implied_prob": 0.5521,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5521,
"draw": 0.2303,
"home": 0.2177
},
"model_prob": 0.4258,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2973,
"best_odd": 3.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0018,
"ev": -0.0906,
"implied_prob": 0.2303,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5521,
"draw": 0.2303,
"home": 0.2177
},
"model_prob": 0.2244,
"p_final": 0.2285
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"best_odd": 4.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": 0.0057,
"implied_prob": 0.2177,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5521,
"draw": 0.2303,
"home": 0.2177
},
"model_prob": 0.3499,
"p_final": 0.2389
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.1766,
"ev": -0.2932,
"implied_prob": 0.6024,
"model_prob": 0.4258
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.98,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.1071,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"model_prob": 0.2244
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.21,
"edge": 0.1123,
"ev": 0.4729,
"implied_prob": 0.2375,
"model_prob": 0.3499
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1712,
"alpha_yes": 0.1884,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1879,
"edge_yes": 0.1879,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4676,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1646,
"ev_yes": 0.3113,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0437,
"implied_no": 0.4299,
"implied_yes": 0.5701,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1712,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1646,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.242,
"p_final": 0.3941
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0346,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.5745,
"model_prob": 0.758,
"p_final": 0.6091
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.3941,
"p_final_yes": 0.6091,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.191,
"alpha_under": 0.1389,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.56,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.23,
"edge_over": 0.1783,
"edge_under": -0.1783,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2393,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0295,
"ev_under": -0.4477,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1368,
"implied_over": 0.5867,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5884,
"implied_under": 0.4133,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4116,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0337,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.5884,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6221
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1389,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3871
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6221,
"p_final_under": 0.3871,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3113,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4729,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3113,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3113,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4729,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NJ/NY Gotham FC at 42.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NJ/NY Gotham FC as the value side (42.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side NJ/NY Gotham FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508538 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +31.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1855,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5521,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4258,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 56.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 56%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.758,
"draw_prob": 0.2244,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4258,
"over_prob": 0.765,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"under_prob": 0.235,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0614,
"ev": -0.1855,
"implied_prob": 0.5521,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4258,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0346,
"market_prob": 0.5745,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.758,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1712,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1646,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.242,
"p_final": 0.3941
},
"p_final": 0.6091,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0346,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.5745,
"model_prob": 0.758,
"p_final": 0.6091
}
},
"edge": 0.1879,
"ev": 0.3113,
"implied_prob": 0.5701,
"model_prob": 0.758,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0337,
"market_prob": 0.5884,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.191,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0337,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.5884,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6221
},
"p_final": 0.6221,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1389,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.4116,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3871
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1783,
"ev": 0.2393,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508538,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3113,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4258,
"draw": 0.2244,
"home": 0.3499
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2393,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2393,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"home": "Racing Louisville"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.27136,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3113,
"implied_prob": 0.5701,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.758,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1855,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5521,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4258,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508538,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T22:29:06.098618+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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NWSL Femenina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | OL Reign | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | OL Reign | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | OL Reign | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
