The model missed the final outcome (Washington Spirit win 1–2).
The model had projected Portland Thorns at 39.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Portland Thorns Washington Spirit ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Thorns | 39.3% | 39.0% | +0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 23.0% | 24.9% | -1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Washington Spirit | 37.7% | 36.1% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Washington Spirit win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.02) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Portland Thorns; match finished Washington Spirit
Market lesson
The full-time result was Washington Spirit win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Portland Thorns 39.3% · Draw 23.0% · Washington Spirit 37.7%
- xG · Portland Thorns 2.03 — Washington Spirit 1.99
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Portland Thorns 2.35 · Draw 3.68 · Washington Spirit 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Portland Thorns 39.0% · Draw 24.9% · Washington Spirit 36.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Portland Thorns 2.35 · Draw 3.68 · Washington Spirit 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Portland Thorns 39.0% · Draw 24.9% · Washington Spirit 36.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Washington Spirit win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
72/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
90/100
Betting Confidence
75/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.68
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Washington Spirit win · Portland Thorns 1–2 Washington Spirit
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "7/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.7%",
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},
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 1.9,
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portland Thorns at 39.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
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"model_lean": "Portland Thorns",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portland Thorns).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0799,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3933,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0757,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -3.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.9,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.99,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.03,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.03,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.03 \u00b7 Away xG 1.99 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +50%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"steam_team": "Washington Spirit",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portland Thorns).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portland Thorns)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portland Thorns)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3235,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3235,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portland Thorns at 39.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Portland Thorns as the value side (39.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Portland Thorns",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portland Thorns).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0799,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3933,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0757,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -3.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Portland Thorns 2.03 xG vs Washington Spirit 1.99 \u2192 Portland Thorns 39.3%",
"Market: Portland Thorns ~39.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Washington Spirit odds \u2191 +8.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Portland Thorns with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.31,
"fair_prob": 39.31,
"label": "Portland Thorns",
"market_prob": 39.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.9,
"fair_prob": 23.01,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.59,
"fair_prob": 37.68,
"label": "Washington Spirit",
"market_prob": 36.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.17,
"fair_prob": 76.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.17,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.33,
"fair_prob": 75.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.33,
"fair_prob": 24.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -1.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.01,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.91,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Washington Spirit"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Portland Thorns",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Portland Thorns \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Portland Thorns 2.03 xG vs Washington Spirit 1.99 \u2192 Portland Thorns 39.3%",
"Market: Portland Thorns ~39.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Washington Spirit odds \u2191 +8.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Portland Thorns with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.9,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Washington Spirit odds lengthened \u2191 +8.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Washington Spirit has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Washington Spirit \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Washington Spirit has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Washington Spirit \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Washington Spirit has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/10) supports the current market view on Washington Spirit."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.6 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.6,
"max_prob_pct": 39.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -1.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.31,
"edge_pp": 0.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Portland Thorns",
"market_prob_pct": 39.0,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.9,
"edge_pp": -1.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.59,
"edge_pp": 1.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.68,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Washington Spirit",
"market_prob_pct": 36.09,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Washington Spirit \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Portland Thorns (39.0%).",
"Washington Spirit odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.7%, 7/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Portland Thorns \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.17,
"closing_odds": 3.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.17,
"entry_odds": 3.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "7/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 40h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Washington Spirit (8.7%, 7/10) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.54",
"2.42",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.54 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 40h 1m",
"pick_team": "Washington Spirit",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.54"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.54,
2.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.54"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/10 sportsbooks on Washington Spirit",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Washington Spirit",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Washington Spirit",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/10",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Washington Spirit",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Washington Spirit",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Washington Spirit",
"away_team_id": 3005,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3005.webp",
"away_team_name": "Washington Spirit",
"away_team_public_id": "4Wk8AGt3c11pCR",
"away_team_slug": "washington-spirit-w",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508535,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Portland Thorns",
"home_team_id": 3001,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3001.webp",
"home_team_name": "Portland Thorns",
"home_team_public_id": "54s8Ahtt7FJk9O",
"home_team_slug": "portland-thorns-w",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 20:00:00",
"public_id": "4QtIFdpxAZMQKs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Providence Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4391,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.3609,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2491,
"home": 0.39
},
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.368
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2913,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2491,
"home": 0.39
},
"model_prob": 0.2297,
"p_final": 0.2434
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4478,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2491,
"home": 0.39
},
"model_prob": 0.3933,
"p_final": 0.3915
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.377
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": -0.0421,
"ev": -0.1548,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2297
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.3933
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1339,
"alpha_yes": 0.1841,
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1733,
"edge_yes": 0.1733,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4409,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1444,
"ev_yes": 0.2675,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0457,
"implied_no": 0.4143,
"implied_yes": 0.5857,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1339,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1444,
"implied_prob": 0.4118,
"model_prob": 0.241,
"p_final": 0.3889
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1841,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.759,
"p_final": 0.6197
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3889,
"p_final_yes": 0.6197,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1695,
"alpha_under": 0.1541,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.07,
"edge_over": 0.2117,
"edge_under": -0.2117,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3235,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0197,
"ev_under": -0.4995,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1458,
"implied_over": 0.5533,
"implied_over_mf": 0.555,
"implied_under": 0.4467,
"implied_under_mf": 0.445,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1695,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": -0.0197,
"implied_prob": 0.555,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.5906
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1541,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.445,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.4127
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5906,
"p_final_under": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3235,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3235,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3235,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portland Thorns)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3235,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3235,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portland Thorns at 39.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Portland Thorns as the value side (39.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Portland Thorns",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portland Thorns).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0799,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3933,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0757,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -3.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.759,
"draw_prob": 0.2297,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3933,
"over_prob": 0.765,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"under_prob": 0.235,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3933,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Portland Thorns"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1841,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0314,
"market_prob": 0.5882,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.759,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1339,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1444,
"implied_prob": 0.4118,
"model_prob": 0.241,
"p_final": 0.3889
},
"p_final": 0.6197,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0457,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1841,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.759,
"p_final": 0.6197
}
},
"edge": 0.1733,
"ev": 0.2675,
"implied_prob": 0.5857,
"model_prob": 0.759,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1695,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"edge": 0.0356,
"market_prob": 0.555,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1695,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": -0.0197,
"implied_prob": 0.555,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.5906
},
"p_final": 0.5906,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0197,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1541,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.445,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.4127
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.2117,
"ev": 0.3235,
"implied_prob": 0.5533,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508535,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3235,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.377,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.3933
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2675,
"implied_prob": 0.5857,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.759,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2675,
"implied_prob": 0.5857,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.759,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Washington Spirit",
"home": "Portland Thorns"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.309347,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3235,
"implied_prob": 0.5533,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0799,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.39,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3933,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0757,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508535,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T19:59:30.763380+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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NWSL Femenina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | OL Reign | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | OL Reign | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | OL Reign | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
