Auditoría de predicción: B71 vs Víkingur II Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 12, 2026 - 17:30
5 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 26%

AI correctly predicted the B71 win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción B-

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 B71 B71 ✔ Correcto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrecto

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (B71 win 5–0).

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

  1. Jun 12, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · B71 1.37 — Víkingur II 1.23
  2. Jun 12, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result B71 win · 5–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Observe
Decisión histórica No Primary Bet
Resultado Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidencia ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2204537

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result B71 win · B71 5–0 Víkingur II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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        {
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          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
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          "validation_label": "Pass"
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          "tier": "low",
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
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            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on B71."
          ],
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          "title": "Market Assessment"
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        "market_narrative": {
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            "The market still prices B71 above the current fair estimate.",
            "Recent line movement on B71 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on B71."
          ],
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        "outcome_separation": {
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          "lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.5,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
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        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
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          {
            "edge_pp": -9.79,
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            "side": "home"
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          {
            "edge_pp": 6.67,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 22.9,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.13,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "V\u00edkingur II",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.81,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on B71.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers B71 (48.3%).",
          "Both lean B71, but the market prices them higher (48.3% vs model 38.5%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
        "closing_odds": 1.85,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
        "entry_odds": 1.85,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "9/9",
        "current_odds": 1.85,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.85,
        "pick_team": "B71",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "B71",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 4183,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4183.webp",
      "away_team_name": "V\u00edkingur II",
      "country_code": "FO",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fo.svg",
      "country_name": "Faroe-Islands",
      "fixture_id": 1506618,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Faroe-Islands",
      "home_team_id": 4176,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4176.webp",
      "home_team_name": "B71",
      "league_country": "Faroe-Islands",
      "league_id": 366,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/366.webp",
      "league_name": "1. Deild Islas Feroe",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 17:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Sandur",
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2859,
            "best_odd": 3.1,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.009,
            "ev": -0.079,
            "implied_prob": 0.2881,
            "model_prob": 0.3195,
            "p_final": 0.2971
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2699,
            "best_odd": 3.9,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.018,
            "ev": -0.0364,
            "implied_prob": 0.229,
            "model_prob": 0.2959,
            "p_final": 0.2471
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5116,
            "best_odd": 1.85,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0502,
            "ev": -0.1997,
            "implied_prob": 0.4828,
            "model_prob": 0.3846,
            "p_final": 0.4326
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 3.05,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.36,
          "edge_no": 0.1452,
          "edge_yes": -0.1452,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.3908,
          "ev_yes": -0.2602,
          "implied_no": 0.3108,
          "implied_yes": 0.6892,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.36,
          "best_under_odd": 3.04,
          "edge_over": -0.2124,
          "edge_under": 0.2124,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3445,
          "ev_under": 0.5747,
          "implied_over": 0.6944,
          "implied_under": 0.3056,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.5747,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2959,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.14
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0502,
          "ev": -0.1997,
          "implied_prob": 0.4828,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3846,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "B71"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1452,
          "ev": 0.3908,
          "implied_prob": 0.3108,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2124,
          "ev": 0.5747,
          "implied_prob": 0.3056,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1506618,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.5747,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3195,
        "draw": 0.2959,
        "home": 0.3846
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3908,
        "implied_prob": 0.3108,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.456,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.3908,
          "implied_prob": 0.3108,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "V\u00edkingur II",
        "home": "B71"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.208386,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.5747,
        "implied_prob": 0.3056,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1506618,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T17:29:05.737836+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Volver a Predicciones
1. Deild Islas Feroe 1. Deild Islas Feroe — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 B71 24 19 2 3 59
2 Víkingur II 24 17 3 4 54
3 Suduroy 24 16 2 6 50
4 ÍF II 24 10 7 7 37
5 TB 24 8 7 9 31
6 B36 II 24 9 2 13 29
7 NSÍ II 24 7 4 13 25
8 Hoyvík 24 7 2 15 23
9 HB II 24 5 7 12 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 3 2 19 11
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 B71 24 76 25 +51 59
2 Suduroy 24 73 33 +40 50
3 Víkingur II 24 61 39 +22 54
4 ÍF II 24 55 48 +7 37
5 B36 II 24 51 62 -11 29
6 TB 24 46 51 -5 31
7 Hoyvík 24 36 67 -31 23
8 NSÍ II 24 34 55 -21 25
9 HB II 24 30 41 -11 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 30 71 -41 11