Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No +2.4%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Deportes Limache Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 35.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 41.7%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Deportes Limache, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (41.7% vs modelo 35.6%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Deportes Limache -6.1 pp
- Amplitud
- 13/13
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
Sin embargo, Concepción ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Concepción.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 34.7% | 32.04% | +2.7 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 26.22% | +3.4 pp |
| Deportes Limache | 35.64% | 41.73% | -6.1 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+8.8% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Borde delgado: BTTS No (+2.4% - debajo de la barra de tamaño predeterminada)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (5.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Deportes Limache · Probabilidad del modelo 35.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 41.7%
EV línea de consenso: -13.1%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -4.1% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.6%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.5/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -13.2% ·
EV inferior +8.8%
(10 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No +2.4%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No +2.4%
Concepción market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Concepción
- Odds move
- 2.90 → 2.90 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 13/13
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.21
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"league_id": 265,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/265.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 16:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Ester Roa"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4093,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.4162,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3916
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2841,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2715
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4331,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.3223,
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3331
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"edge_no": 0.0317,
"edge_yes": -0.0317,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"implied_no": 0.4233,
"implied_yes": 0.5767,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0586,
"edge_under": 0.0586,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"implied_over": 0.5406,
"implied_under": 0.4594,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.4162,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportes Limache"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4233,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0586,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505462,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportes Limache",
"home": "Concepci\u00f3n"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505462,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T11:24:48.750873+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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