Sí 54.8% · No 45.2%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -12.3% · EV No +4.0%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Umeå FC Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 47.4%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 59.4%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
El modelo y el mercado se inclinan del mismo lado hacia Umeå FC, pero las diferencias de precios justifican la precaución.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Umeå FC -12.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 12/12
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Umeå FC que la estimación justa actual.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en Umeå FC.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Umeå FC | 47.42% | 59.42% | -12.0 pp |
| Empate | 27.97% | 21.64% | +6.3 pp |
| Piteå | 24.61% | 18.94% | +5.7 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+4.0% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Umeå FC · Probabilidad del modelo 47.4%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 59.4%
EV línea de consenso: -18.1%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -4.1% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 11.8%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -24.1% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(10 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -12.3% · EV No +4.0%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -12.3% · EV No +4.0%
Umeå FC market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Umeå FC
- Odds move
- 1.60 → 1.60 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 12/12
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.53
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"paragraphs": [
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},
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},
"premium_teaser": {
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"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"unlock_label": "Unlock"
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},
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"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
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"home_team_id": 6705,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6705.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Umea",
"venue_name": "Umea Energi Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1829,
"best_odd": 4.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.1894,
"model_prob": 0.2464,
"p_final": 0.1998
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1811,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.2164,
"model_prob": 0.2795,
"p_final": 0.2279
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.492,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0591,
"ev": -0.1813,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.4741,
"p_final": 0.5351
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"edge_no": 0.0412,
"edge_yes": -0.0412,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0396,
"ev_yes": -0.1232,
"implied_no": 0.4108,
"implied_yes": 0.5892,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": -0.1182,
"edge_under": 0.1182,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.241,
"ev_under": 0.2597,
"implied_over": 0.6242,
"implied_under": 0.3758,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2597,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.548,
"draw_prob": 0.2795,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4741,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.5
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0591,
"ev": -0.1813,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4741,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ume\u00e5 FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0412,
"ev": 0.0396,
"implied_prob": 0.4108,
"model_prob": 0.452,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1182,
"ev": 0.2597,
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505186,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2597,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2464,
"draw": 0.2795,
"home": 0.4741
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pite\u00e5",
"home": "Ume\u00e5 FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.128292,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2597,
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505186,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:53:22.170590+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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