The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected IFK Olympic at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 IFK Olympic Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Olympic | 40.4% | 38.2% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.1% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Rosengård | 30.1% | 37.7% | -7.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Rosengård's win probability at 37.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Rosengård. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned IFK Olympic; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on IFK Olympic by 7.6 percentage points (48.0% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · IFK Olympic 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Rosengård 30.1%
- xG · IFK Olympic 1.41 — Rosengård 1.19
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · IFK Olympic 2.40 · Draw 3.81 · Rosengård 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · IFK Olympic 38.2% · Draw 24.1% · Rosengård 37.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · IFK Olympic 2.40 · Draw 3.81 · Rosengård 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · IFK Olympic 38.2% · Draw 24.1% · Rosengård 37.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.43
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · IFK Olympic 1–1 Rosengård
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0594,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic)."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic)."
},
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"confidence_band": "High",
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"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IFK Olympic at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IFK Olympic as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IFK Olympic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0594,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.59,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "IFK Olympic",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IFK Olympic at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IFK Olympic as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IFK Olympic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0594,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: IFK Olympic 1.41 xG vs Roseng\u00e5rd 1.19 \u2192 IFK Olympic 40.4%",
"Market: IFK Olympic ~38.2% implied",
"Market Steam: IFK Olympic +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean IFK Olympic with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.22,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "IFK Olympic",
"market_prob": 38.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.59,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"market_prob": 37.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.41,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.41,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.51,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.51,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"market_prob_pct": 37.73,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "IFK Olympic"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Roseng\u00e5rd\u0027s win probability at 37.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "IFK Olympic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.2,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "IFK Olympic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: IFK Olympic 1.41 xG vs Roseng\u00e5rd 1.19 \u2192 IFK Olympic 40.4%",
"Market: IFK Olympic ~38.2% implied",
"Market Steam: IFK Olympic +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean IFK Olympic with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.59,
"hero_label": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Roseng\u00e5rd. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Roseng\u00e5rd relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Roseng\u00e5rd. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Roseng\u00e5rd above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Roseng\u00e5rd higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.22,
"edge_pp": 2.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "IFK Olympic",
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.37,
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.59,
"edge_pp": -7.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"market_prob_pct": 37.73,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Roseng\u00e5rd relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers IFK Olympic (38.2%).",
"IFK Olympic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.15,
"closing_odds": 2.43,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.15,
"entry_odds": 2.43,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "IFK Olympic",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "IFK Olympic",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rosengard",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"away_team_id": 6694,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6694.webp",
"away_team_name": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"away_team_public_id": "13CfPAwgIgV612",
"away_team_slug": "rosengard",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1504553,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "IFK Olympic",
"home_team_id": 12601,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12601.webp",
"home_team_name": "IFK Olympic",
"home_team_public_id": "4hnn2DaHEb53Ha",
"home_team_slug": "olympic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "olympic",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_id": 564,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/564.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_public_id": "3mv3qLswDEZqW8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 11:00:00",
"public_id": "3SW55ywfHzCanu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3986,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1569,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3773,
"draw": 0.2407,
"home": 0.382
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.347
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.276,
"best_odd": 3.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.027,
"implied_prob": 0.2407,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3773,
"draw": 0.2407,
"home": 0.382
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2554
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4346,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3773,
"draw": 0.2407,
"home": 0.382
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3919
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": -0.1104,
"ev": -0.2682,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.81,
"edge": 0.0316,
"ev": 0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1489,
"alpha_yes": 0.2047,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1151,
"edge_yes": -0.1151,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.319,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0408,
"ev_yes": -0.2195,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1193,
"implied_no": 0.3429,
"implied_yes": 0.6571,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 2.665,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3428,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3599
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.6572,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6336
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3599,
"p_final_yes": 0.6336,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1902,
"alpha_under": 0.1383,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.52,
"edge_over": -0.1541,
"edge_under": 0.1541,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1259,
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0298,
"implied_over": 0.6361,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6364,
"implied_under": 0.3639,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3636,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1902,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1259,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.607
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0298,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.385
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.607,
"p_final_under": 0.385,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IFK Olympic at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IFK Olympic as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IFK Olympic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IFK Olympic).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0594,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "IFK Olympic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.665,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.3428,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 2.665,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3428,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3599
},
"p_final": 0.3599,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.6572,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6336
}
},
"edge": 0.1151,
"ev": 0.319,
"implied_prob": 0.3429,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3636,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1902,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1259,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.607
},
"p_final": 0.385,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0298,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0298,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.385
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1541,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3639,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1504553,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3468,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3639,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3639,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"home": "IFK Olympic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.146102,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.319,
"implied_prob": 0.3429,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0594,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1504553,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T10:59:33.150421+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ettan - Södra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborgs FF | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 51 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Hässleholms IF | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 42 |
| 4 | Lund | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 5 | AFC Malmö | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 38 |
| 6 | Rosengård | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 38 |
| 7 | Trollhättan | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Jönköpings Södra | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 9 | Tvååker | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | IFK Olympic | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 11 | Skövde AIK | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 30 |
| 12 | Eskilsminne | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 27 |
| 14 | Laholm | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 15 | Ängelholms FF | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 18 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 24 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborgs FF | 24 | 53 | 28 | +25 | 51 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 24 | 48 | 34 | +14 | 45 |
| 3 | Lund | 24 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 41 |
| 4 | Hässleholms IF | 24 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 42 |
| 5 | AFC Malmö | 24 | 44 | 35 | +9 | 38 |
| 6 | Rosengård | 24 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 38 |
| 7 | Trollhättan | 24 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 37 |
| 8 | IFK Olympic | 24 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 30 |
| 9 | Eskilsminne | 24 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 29 |
| 10 | Tvååker | 24 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 33 |
| 11 | Laholm | 24 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 22 |
| 12 | Jönköpings Södra | 24 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 33 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 24 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Skövde AIK | 24 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
| 15 | Ängelholms FF | 24 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 18 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 24 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 12 |
