Predicciones / Fútbol / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Tvååker vs Jonkopings Sodra

Tvååker vs Jonkopings Sodra Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 13, 2026 - 11:00
1.20
1.40
31% 29% 40%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Tenga cuidado

Favorito
Jonkopings Sodra Partido equilibrado
Probabilidad del modelo
39.9%
Probabilidad de mercado
50.4%
Acuerdo de mercado
Débil
Validación
Advertencia

Resumen:

Ambos se inclinan por Jonkopings Sodra, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (50.4% vs modelo 39.9%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Débil
Validación
Advertencia
Mayor brecha
Jonkopings Sodra -10.4 pp
Amplitud
9/9
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.

Evaluación de mercado

El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Jonkopings Sodra que la estimación justa actual.

Sin embargo, Tvååker ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.

La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Tvååker.

  • Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
  • El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
Tvååker 30.58% 23.14% +7.4 pp
Empate 29.48% 26.49% +3.0 pp
Jonkopings Sodra 39.94% 50.37% -10.4 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Veredicto final de apuestas

Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.

  • Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
  • Modelo magro (no es una apuesta predeterminada): {elegir}
  • Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+3.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Baja convicción (4/10): prefiera apuestas más pequeñas o saltee.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Mejor +EV (mercados seguidos)
BTTS Sí — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +3.7% Modelo 54.3%
El +EV más fuerte entre los mercados seguidos aquí; no se cumplieron reglas de Primaria más estrictas (p. ej. EV mínimo).
1X2 Poco valor
Jonkopings Sodra · Probabilidad del modelo 40.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 50.4%
EV línea de consenso: -19.7%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -2.7% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más / Menos de 2.5 Poco valor
Más de 2.5 48.2% · Menos de 2.5 51.8%
EV terminado -3.6% · EV inferior -4.2%
Lectura de valor: Más de 2.5
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Ejecución: sin Primaria / alternativa a tamaño estándar — otros mercados pueden mostrar +EV en las tarjetas de abajo.
Mercado: puede haber una pequeña ineficiencia modelo–precio en líneas marginales o de alta varianza — no es apuesta por defecto; reduzca la apuesta si prueba. (Técnico: al menos una línea seguida supera el umbral +EV a ≥2.0% en las mejores cuotas — no implica apuesta por defecto.)
Fuerza de la decisión: 4.0 / 10
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado -3.6% · EV inferior -4.2% (8 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.7% · EV No -12.3%
Should you bet on this match? Solo lectura discrecional: el +EV puede aparecer en líneas finas o outsiders; compárelas con sus límites.

Tvååker market context before kickoff

⚠️ Mercado volátil on Tvååker

Odds move
4.50 → 4.50 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
9/9
Steam score
30 (C)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo

  1. Pronóstico generado
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
1.78
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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        "hero_side": "away",
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        "market_prob_pct": 50.37,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker"
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        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
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          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
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        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
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          "favourite_label": "Jonkopings Sodra",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 50.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Jonkopings Sodra, but the market prices them higher (50.4% vs model 39.9%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -10.43,
        "hero_label": "Jonkopings Sodra",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Jonkopings Sodra than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Jonkopings Sodra than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Jonkopings Sodra more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 10.43,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 7.44,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.14,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.99,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.49,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.43,
            "fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Jonkopings Sodra",
            "market_prob_pct": 50.37,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Jonkopings Sodra (50.4%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Jonkopings Sodra, Market \u2192 Jonkopings Sodra, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": null,
        "closing_odds": null,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
        "entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
        "entry_odds": 1.78,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "9/9",
        "current_odds": 4.5,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 4.5,
        "pick_team": "Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 10.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 764,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/764.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Jonkopings Sodra",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1504466,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 6703,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6703.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 564,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/564.webp",
      "league_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 11:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5064,
            "best_odd": 1.78,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0527,
            "ev": -0.1971,
            "implied_prob": 0.5037,
            "model_prob": 0.3997,
            "p_final": 0.451
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2866,
            "best_odd": 3.385,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0086,
            "ev": -0.0744,
            "implied_prob": 0.2649,
            "model_prob": 0.2948,
            "p_final": 0.2734
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2666,
            "best_odd": 3.875,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0198,
            "ev": -0.0267,
            "implied_prob": 0.2314,
            "model_prob": 0.3056,
            "p_final": 0.2512
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.92,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.91,
          "edge_no": -0.0396,
          "edge_yes": 0.0396,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1226,
          "ev_yes": 0.0371,
          "implied_no": 0.4966,
          "implied_yes": 0.5034,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.0,
          "best_under_odd": 1.85,
          "edge_over": 0.0047,
          "edge_under": -0.0047,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.036,
          "ev_under": -0.0417,
          "implied_over": 0.4773,
          "implied_under": 0.5227,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0371,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
          "draw_prob": 0.2948,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0371,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.5034,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.543,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0527,
          "ev": -0.1971,
          "implied_prob": 0.5037,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3997,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Jonkopings Sodra"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0396,
          "ev": 0.0371,
          "implied_prob": 0.5034,
          "model_prob": 0.543,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0047,
          "ev": -0.036,
          "implied_prob": 0.4773,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1504466,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0371,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3997,
        "draw": 0.2948,
        "home": 0.3056
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Jonkopings Sodra",
        "home": "Tv\u00e5\u00e5ker"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1504466,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:55:49.702086+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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