Skövde AIK · Probabilidad del modelo 36.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 18.5%
EV línea de consenso: +0.5%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Skövde AIK Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 18.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Rosengård -24.5 pp
- Amplitud
- 8/8
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere sustancialmente de los precios actuales del mercado. Pueden ocurrir grandes divergencias cuando los datos de calificación son incompletos, las estimaciones de la fuerza del equipo son inciertas o el mercado incorpora información que no está presente en el modelo. Interprete con precaución.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosengård | 33.77% | 58.3% | -24.5 pp |
| Empate | 29.64% | 23.17% | +6.5 pp |
| Skövde AIK | 36.59% | 18.53% | +18.1 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Se requiere validación del modelo
El modelo y el mercado difieren materialmente (24.5 puntos porcentuales). Se recomienda una validación adicional antes de interpretar esta comparación.
- Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -0.3% · EV No -6.7%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.0 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -19.5% ·
EV inferior +14.0%
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -0.3% · EV No -6.7%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -0.3% · EV No -6.7%
Rosengård market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Rosengård
- Odds move
- 1.44 → 1.44 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 8/8
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.51
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
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"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
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"favourite_label": "Sk\u00f6vde AIK",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
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"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Sk\u00f6vde AIK, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Roseng\u00e5rd remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
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"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
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"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.53,
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"hero_side": "home",
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
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"side": "home"
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{
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],
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"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
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"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Roseng\u00e5rd (18.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sk\u00f6vde AIK, Market \u2192 Roseng\u00e5rd, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
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"entry_odds": 1.51,
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{
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{
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
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"current_odds": 1.44,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.44,
"pick_team": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
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"unlock_label": "Unlock"
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"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 6698,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6698.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sk\u00f6vde AIK",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1504464,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 6694,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6694.webp",
"home_team_name": "Roseng\u00e5rd",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 564,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/564.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 14:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 4.75,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.1853,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2117
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2708,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.2317,
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2492
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3791,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0931,
"ev": -0.2602,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.49
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"edge_no": -0.008,
"edge_yes": 0.008,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0673,
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"implied_no": 0.463,
"implied_yes": 0.537,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": -0.0772,
"edge_under": 0.0772,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"implied_over": 0.5592,
"implied_under": 0.4408,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.1853,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sk\u00f6vde AIK"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.537,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0772,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4408,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1504464,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sk\u00f6vde AIK",
"home": "Roseng\u00e5rd"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4408,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1504464,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T04:56:14.399224+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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