AI correctly predicted the Centro Español win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Centro Español Centro Español ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centro Español | 40.9% | 48.0% | -7.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.7% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Defensores de Cambaceres | 29.7% | 25.3% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Centro Español's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Centro Español win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Centro Español. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Centro Español higher (48.0% vs model 40.9%, 7.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Centro Español win 2–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Centro Español 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Defensores de Cambaceres 29.6%
- xG · Centro Español 1.42 — Defensores de Cambaceres 1.18
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Centro Español 1.84 · Draw 3.31 · Defensores de Cambaceres 3.49
- Implied 1X2 · Centro Español 48.0% · Draw 26.7% · Defensores de Cambaceres 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Centro Español 1.84 · Draw 3.31 · Defensores de Cambaceres 3.49
- Implied 1X2 · Centro Español 48.0% · Draw 26.7% · Defensores de Cambaceres 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Centro Español win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
64/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.84
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Centro Español win · Centro Español 2–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Centro Espa\u00f1ol at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "bad"
},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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],
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"icon": "\u25cb",
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1863,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2463,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.1,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -23.6%",
"steam_team": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3525,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3525,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Centro Espa\u00f1ol at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Centro Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1863,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2463,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Centro Espa\u00f1ol 1.42 xG vs Defensores de Cambaceres 1.18 \u2192 Centro Espa\u00f1ol 40.9%",
"Market: Centro Espa\u00f1ol ~48.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Defensores de Cambaceres \u2193 -23.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol, but sharp money moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.1,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
"market_prob": 48.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.71,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.38,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"market_prob": 25.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.33,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.33,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.0,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.0,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
"market_prob_pct": 48.01,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Defensores de Cambaceres"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Centro Espa\u00f1ol\u0027s win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.1,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Centro Espa\u00f1ol 1.42 xG vs Defensores de Cambaceres 1.18 \u2192 Centro Espa\u00f1ol 40.9%",
"Market: Centro Espa\u00f1ol ~48.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Defensores de Cambaceres \u2193 -23.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol, but sharp money moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.1,
"hero_label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Defensores de Cambaceres odds shortened \u2193 -23.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Defensores de Cambaceres, with odds shortening by 23.6%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Centro Espa\u00f1ol. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Defensores de Cambaceres \u2014 odds shortened by 23.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Centro Espa\u00f1ol. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Defensores de Cambaceres, with odds shortening by 23.6%.",
"Buying interest on Defensores de Cambaceres \u2014 odds shortened by 23.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
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"The market still prices Centro Espa\u00f1ol above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Defensores de Cambaceres has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 23.6%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Defensores de Cambaceres."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
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"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
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"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
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"largest_gap_pp": -7.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Centro Espa\u00f1ol higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
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"edge_pp": -7.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
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},
{
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"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
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{
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"edge_pp": 4.38,
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"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
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"status_label": "Market Ahead",
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"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
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"However, Defensores de Cambaceres has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -23.6%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Centro Espa\u00f1ol, Market \u2192 Centro Espa\u00f1ol, Recent sharp money \u2192 Defensores de Cambaceres.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": 1.84,
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"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
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"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
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"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
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"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
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{
"detail": "",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
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},
{
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"label": "Closing Recorded",
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},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
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{
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"odds_delta_pct": -51.4
},
{
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},
{
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"odds_delta_pct": -42.3
},
{
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},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
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},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
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"odds_delta_pct": -23.6
}
],
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"narrative_paragraphs": [
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"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
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"odds_path": {
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"4.50",
"3.49"
],
"display": "7.65 \u2192 3.48 \u2192 4.20",
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"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.48"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
3.49,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,11.6",
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{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
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},
{
"label_key": "high",
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},
{
"label_key": "current",
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}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Defensores de Cambaceres \u2193 -23.6% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Defensores de Cambaceres \u2193 -23.6% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
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"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
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"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
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},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
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],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
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},
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"away_team_name": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"away_team_public_id": "31krepop332Hlp",
"away_team_slug": "defensores-de-cambaceres",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
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"home_team_country": "Argentina",
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"home_team_public_id": "2CJovnwqiEzNwf",
"home_team_slug": "centro-espanol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "centro-espanol",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera C",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_public_id": "5iJhpsMWwrB2VM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-28 18:00:00",
"public_id": "39Z5eZX3WVM6YF",
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"score_penalty_away": null,
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
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"score": 6.5
},
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"draw": {
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},
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
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},
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}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
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"away": {
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"edge": 0.01,
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},
"draw": {
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},
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"edge": -0.1339,
"ev": -0.2464,
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"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2001,
"alpha_yes": 0.1455,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.13,
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"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1303,
"ev_yes": 0.3525,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"implied_no": 0.589,
"implied_yes": 0.411,
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"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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},
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}
},
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},
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"best_under_odd": 1.46,
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}
},
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}
},
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"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
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"variance_flag": false
},
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"version": "2.5.0"
},
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.3525,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3525,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
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"Market steam conflicts with model",
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],
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"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
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"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
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"action": "no_bet",
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3525,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Centro Espa\u00f1ol at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Centro Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Defensores de Cambaceres, but the model still strongly favours Centro Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1863,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2463,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0378,
"ev": -0.1863,
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1455,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0186,
"market_prob": 0.4133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1303,
"implied_prob": 0.5867,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5611
},
"p_final": 0.4319,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1455,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4319
}
},
"edge": 0.13,
"ev": 0.3525,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0181,
"market_prob": 0.3588,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1467,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0503,
"implied_prob": 0.3588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3769
},
"p_final": 0.3769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0503,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0249,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6164
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1233,
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3587,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1500127,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3525,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3587,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3587,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"home": "Centro Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.190702,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3525,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1863,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2463,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1500127,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-28T17:59:23.260898+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera C — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 48 |
| 2 | Lugano | 30 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Estrella del Sur | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Mercedes | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Centro Español | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| 14 | Argentino de Rosario | 30 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 24 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 29 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 41 |
| 3 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 42 |
| 4 | Lugano | 30 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 46 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 30 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Estrella del Sur | 30 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 44 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 30 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | Argentino de Rosario | 30 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 10 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 28 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 41 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 29 |
