The model missed the final outcome (Deportivo Merlo win 2–1).
The model had projected Flandria at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Flandria Deportivo Merlo ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Merlo | 32.9% | 35.3% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 34.9% | -5.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Flandria | 37.5% | 29.8% | +7.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Flandria's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.8%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Deportivo Merlo win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Flandria.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Flandria; match finished Deportivo Merlo
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Flandria by 7.8 percentage points (29.7% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Merlo 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Flandria 37.6%
- xG · Deportivo Merlo 1.25 — Flandria 1.35
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Merlo 2.56 · Draw 2.59 · Flandria 3.04
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Merlo 35.3% · Draw 34.9% · Flandria 29.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Merlo 2.56 · Draw 2.59 · Flandria 3.04
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Merlo 35.3% · Draw 34.9% · Flandria 29.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Merlo win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
21/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Deportivo Merlo win · Deportivo Merlo 2–1 Flandria
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0327,
"ev_available": true,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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},
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.1421,
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Flandria",
"sort_key": 1791.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.79,
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"model_team": "Flandria",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 7.8,
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4846,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flandria at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flandria as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flandria",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +48.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +48.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+48.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0327,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2975,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32894736842105265,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.79,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.79,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4846,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flandria at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flandria as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flandria",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +48.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +48.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+48.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0327,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2975,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32894736842105265,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Merlo 1.25 xG vs Flandria 1.35 \u2192 Flandria 37.5%",
"Market: Deportivo Merlo ~29.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Flandria with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.48,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Deportivo Merlo",
"market_prob": 35.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.31,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.79,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Flandria",
"market_prob": 29.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.25,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.25,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.89,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.89,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Flandria",
"market_prob_pct": 29.75,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Flandria\u0027s win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.8%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.79,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Flandria",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Flandria \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Merlo 1.25 xG vs Flandria 1.35 \u2192 Flandria 37.5%",
"Market: Deportivo Merlo ~29.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Flandria with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.79,
"hero_label": "Flandria",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +4.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Flandria.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Flandria.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Flandria.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.79,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Flandria",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.8,
"lead": "The model rates Flandria considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.48,
"edge_pp": -2.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Merlo",
"market_prob_pct": 35.33,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.31,
"edge_pp": -5.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.92,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.79,
"edge_pp": 7.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Flandria",
"market_prob_pct": 29.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Merlo (29.8%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.7%, 3/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Flandria, Market \u2192 Deportivo Merlo, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.89,
"closing_odds": 3.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.89,
"entry_odds": 3.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 2.88 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.88) \u2014 net 4.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.88",
"2.73",
"2.59"
],
"display": "2.88 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 46m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.75,
2.59,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,8.1 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "flandria",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Flandria",
"away_team_id": 471,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/471.webp",
"away_team_name": "Flandria",
"away_team_public_id": "41qTzWw9yNExv0",
"away_team_slug": "flandria",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499640,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Merlo",
"home_team_id": 8383,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8383.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Merlo",
"home_team_public_id": "2HGg3mNrJnCXma",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-merlo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-merlo",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_public_id": "2N6CkighLmd0uk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 20:00:00",
"public_id": "5aiBClnTXQwIuQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2648,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0207,
"ev": -0.0327,
"implied_prob": 0.2975,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2975,
"draw": 0.3492,
"home": 0.3533
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3182
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4138,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.153,
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2975,
"draw": 0.3492,
"home": 0.3533
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.327
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4334,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.3533,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2975,
"draw": 0.3492,
"home": 0.3533
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3426
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0467,
"ev": 0.142,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": -0.0905,
"ev": -0.2343,
"implied_prob": 0.3861,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0619,
"ev": -0.1585,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1869,
"alpha_yes": 0.1359,
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1589,
"edge_yes": 0.1589,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3038,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1361,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0385,
"implied_no": 0.6139,
"implied_yes": 0.3861,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.6182,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5877
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1359,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.3818,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.404
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5877,
"p_final_yes": 0.404,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1323,
"alpha_under": 0.182,
"best_over_odd": 3.08,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.91,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.28,
"edge_over": 0.1725,
"edge_under": -0.1725,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4846,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.043,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1521,
"implied_over": 0.3095,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3055,
"implied_under": 0.6905,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6945,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1323,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3288
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.182,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.1521,
"implied_prob": 0.6945,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6624
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3288,
"p_final_under": 0.6624,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4846,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4846,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4846,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flandria at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flandria as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flandria",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +48.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +48.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+48.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0327,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2975,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32894736842105265,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0207,
"ev": -0.0327,
"implied_prob": 0.2975,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Flandria"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1359,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0222,
"market_prob": 0.3818,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.6182,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5877
},
"p_final": 0.404,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0385,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1359,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.3818,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.404
}
},
"edge": 0.1589,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.3861,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1323,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.91,
"edge": 0.0234,
"market_prob": 0.3055,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1323,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3288
},
"p_final": 0.3288,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.182,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.1521,
"implied_prob": 0.6945,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6624
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1725,
"ev": 0.4846,
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499640,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4846,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4846,
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4846,
"implied_prob": 0.3095,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Flandria",
"home": "Deportivo Merlo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.3861,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0327,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2975,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32894736842105265,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499640,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T19:59:06.454022+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera B Metropolitana — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres de Remedios de Escalada | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 67 |
| 4 | Villa Dálmine | 37 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 64 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 37 | 17 | 11 | 9 | 62 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 57 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 37 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 54 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 37 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 48 |
| 11 | Dock Sud | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 12 | San Martín de Burzaco | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 44 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 43 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 42 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 19 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 38 |
| 20 | Flandria | 37 | 10 | 8 | 19 | 38 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 37 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 32 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 59 | 29 | +30 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 69 |
| 3 | Deportivo Laferrere | 37 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 48 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 37 | 43 | 28 | +15 | 62 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 63 |
| 6 | Talleres de Remedios de Escalada | 37 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 67 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 58 |
| 8 | Dock Sud | 37 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 47 |
| 9 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 57 |
| 10 | Villa Dálmine | 37 | 38 | 21 | +17 | 64 |
| 11 | Comunicaciones | 37 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 54 |
| 12 | San Martín de Burzaco | 37 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 43 |
| 15 | Flandria | 37 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 38 |
| 16 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 44 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 40 |
| 19 | Argentino de Quilmes | 37 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 42 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 15 |
| 22 | UAI Urquiza | 37 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 32 |
